Welcome back traders to another weekly view on gold,
Gold is in excellent bullish form and is about to go vertical towards my 1870 target. The weekly closing price has nullified the chances for a retest of 1745, with bulls fortifying their gains 1771+ (23.6 fibo). Now the invalidation price for gold bulls moves up to 1770. Meaning a retest of 1770 is still possible and a break below it will break the current bullish structure. As a matter of fact, gold bulls broke the 2 year weekly bullflag with a weekly candle. This is starting to look like the start of something amazing. Let's analyse this baby.
📊 US GDP
Two very volatile weeks are coming at us in full speed. We have the US GDP next Tuesday planned with a forecasted 3.5% GDP growth. There are rumours on the street who are whispering 0.5% GDP growth in Q3, which basically means the economy flatlined. Hard to guess numbers on this one, but what is sure, is that the GDP is pulling back from 6%. Chinese GDP last week disappointed also with the lowest growth since the start of the pandemic. As I explained before, this is extremely bullish for gold.
🔊 FOMC November 2021
The next risk event follows up rapidly on November 3rd with Powell set to announce the start of tapering, which is very bearish for gold. Whether that they will start in November 15th or December 1st, this day will be a big day in the market that will give direction for some time with gold set to retest the 1720-1725 level and its weekly bullflag breakout.
🔮 Cesaro's Crystal Ball
Current rally has similarities with the start of the rally in spring 2021. I see gold breaking the triple top at 1830 and then go back to make a double bottom at 1720. The Daily & Weekly RSI closed 50+, stochastic RSI is in strong bullish momentum & an H4 golden cross is there to function as a cushion. I expect to see 1840 and 1850 in extension before the end of month with the US GDP to be the fundamental trigger.
Trading remains an art of probabilities and the probabilities are high that the FOMC November meeting will be a reason for gold bears to show their strength. Ofcourse gold can keep blasting up from 1875, but I will keep an eye on that 50 fibo level at 1875 and I expect a strong bearish hostile take over from there to test bullish commitments and their bullflag breakout. Depending on the fundamental situation, bears might break through 1720 & 1680 aiming for 1650. Or... Gold bottoms at 1720, with bulls defending their bullflag breakout and we are heading for the 2000 break after.
Cheers,
Cesaro
Gold is in excellent bullish form and is about to go vertical towards my 1870 target. The weekly closing price has nullified the chances for a retest of 1745, with bulls fortifying their gains 1771+ (23.6 fibo). Now the invalidation price for gold bulls moves up to 1770. Meaning a retest of 1770 is still possible and a break below it will break the current bullish structure. As a matter of fact, gold bulls broke the 2 year weekly bullflag with a weekly candle. This is starting to look like the start of something amazing. Let's analyse this baby.
📊 US GDP
Two very volatile weeks are coming at us in full speed. We have the US GDP next Tuesday planned with a forecasted 3.5% GDP growth. There are rumours on the street who are whispering 0.5% GDP growth in Q3, which basically means the economy flatlined. Hard to guess numbers on this one, but what is sure, is that the GDP is pulling back from 6%. Chinese GDP last week disappointed also with the lowest growth since the start of the pandemic. As I explained before, this is extremely bullish for gold.
🔊 FOMC November 2021
The next risk event follows up rapidly on November 3rd with Powell set to announce the start of tapering, which is very bearish for gold. Whether that they will start in November 15th or December 1st, this day will be a big day in the market that will give direction for some time with gold set to retest the 1720-1725 level and its weekly bullflag breakout.
🔮 Cesaro's Crystal Ball
Current rally has similarities with the start of the rally in spring 2021. I see gold breaking the triple top at 1830 and then go back to make a double bottom at 1720. The Daily & Weekly RSI closed 50+, stochastic RSI is in strong bullish momentum & an H4 golden cross is there to function as a cushion. I expect to see 1840 and 1850 in extension before the end of month with the US GDP to be the fundamental trigger.
Trading remains an art of probabilities and the probabilities are high that the FOMC November meeting will be a reason for gold bears to show their strength. Ofcourse gold can keep blasting up from 1875, but I will keep an eye on that 50 fibo level at 1875 and I expect a strong bearish hostile take over from there to test bullish commitments and their bullflag breakout. Depending on the fundamental situation, bears might break through 1720 & 1680 aiming for 1650. Or... Gold bottoms at 1720, with bulls defending their bullflag breakout and we are heading for the 2000 break after.
Cheers,
Cesaro
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Correction: GDP is on Thursday not Tuesday!
