Intraday analysis - GOLD - (14 MAR 2023)
Scenario 2 CPI DATA SHOWS AN INCREASE
- inflation is still showing an increase
- Inflation target has not been met just yet
- feds has to hike more rates to combat inflation
- With the massive upside move due to fears in the market during the banking collapse fueled by an increase unemployment rate (which is expected as an effect of rating rates) we can expect this entire upside to be corrected.
With CPI still printing high, we can expect all the noise and upside move that was caused by short term fear in this market to be completely cancelled out.
I won't rule out the possibility of a liquidity grab to the upside to 1913s or even 1923 region before heading down.
HRHR SHORTS 1923
MRMR SHORTS 1912
SAFEST SHORTS BELOW 1900
Take into account this is if price stays as it is before CPI. Personally, i would prefer this bias of dollar domination back in play and gold bears. If CPI prints high, it will fuel the fed chair to raise rates next week during FOMC. However, we will not marry our bias and be adaptive upon release of data. This just my favorable stance on Gold and due to the current economy, the feds have a long way to go. They may or may not just stop their monetary policy and not hit their inflation targets just because of a banking collapse which was primarily fueled by human greed.
Do take note they may have a softer approach this month and go nuts next month. Still brining dollar domination back into the table. Just something to take note of.
Scenario 2 CPI DATA SHOWS AN INCREASE
- inflation is still showing an increase
- Inflation target has not been met just yet
- feds has to hike more rates to combat inflation
- With the massive upside move due to fears in the market during the banking collapse fueled by an increase unemployment rate (which is expected as an effect of rating rates) we can expect this entire upside to be corrected.
With CPI still printing high, we can expect all the noise and upside move that was caused by short term fear in this market to be completely cancelled out.
I won't rule out the possibility of a liquidity grab to the upside to 1913s or even 1923 region before heading down.
HRHR SHORTS 1923
MRMR SHORTS 1912
SAFEST SHORTS BELOW 1900
Take into account this is if price stays as it is before CPI. Personally, i would prefer this bias of dollar domination back in play and gold bears. If CPI prints high, it will fuel the fed chair to raise rates next week during FOMC. However, we will not marry our bias and be adaptive upon release of data. This just my favorable stance on Gold and due to the current economy, the feds have a long way to go. They may or may not just stop their monetary policy and not hit their inflation targets just because of a banking collapse which was primarily fueled by human greed.
Do take note they may have a softer approach this month and go nuts next month. Still brining dollar domination back into the table. Just something to take note of.