Possible 30R Gold Long - Swing trade - Smart Money Concepts/ICT
1. Price has come back to mitigate the 4H +FVG (Fair Value Gap) created on the 4th April, sweeping a PDL (Previous Day's Low) in the process to clean out the stop losses of anyone in early longs from this past week. This is an early entry signal and I have started to scale in with a scalp. (This higher risk trading, and not financial advice!)
2. Price has also retraced to a W +OB (Order Block)
3. We have SMT divergence with Silver, which has not swept the same low; another bullish signal in SMC (Smart Money Concepts) - although it would be better to have the SMT divergence with the previous structure than the current one as this is still unconfirmed (Silver can still make a lower low!)
ENTRY: ***IF*** price displaces/moves impulsively away now on the 15m timeframe, it can come back to fill the 15m +BPR (Balanced Price Range) left after the sweep of the 4th April lows. a 15m ChoCh (Change of Character) A.K.A. MSS (Market Structure Shift) would be ideal, but the last 15m swing high to be broken is a bit far away so the BPR fill is the alternative. This also lines up with the 4H +FVG which has a 4H +OB/Demand Zone below it.
I have placed my stop loss below the Pennant's rPOC (Range Point Of Control) for a peace of mind instead of the wick of the stop hunt.
I will post a zoomed in chart below.
2. Price has also retraced to a W +OB (Order Block)
3. We have SMT divergence with Silver, which has not swept the same low; another bullish signal in SMC (Smart Money Concepts) - although it would be better to have the SMT divergence with the previous structure than the current one as this is still unconfirmed (Silver can still make a lower low!)
ENTRY: ***IF*** price displaces/moves impulsively away now on the 15m timeframe, it can come back to fill the 15m +BPR (Balanced Price Range) left after the sweep of the 4th April lows. a 15m ChoCh (Change of Character) A.K.A. MSS (Market Structure Shift) would be ideal, but the last 15m swing high to be broken is a bit far away so the BPR fill is the alternative. This also lines up with the 4H +FVG which has a 4H +OB/Demand Zone below it.
I have placed my stop loss below the Pennant's rPOC (Range Point Of Control) for a peace of mind instead of the wick of the stop hunt.
I will post a zoomed in chart below.
Comment:
Comment:
No impulsive move yet but something like this would be nice if no MSS:
What do you think? Leave your thoughts below.
What do you think? Leave your thoughts below.
Comment:
Cup & handle on macro timeframes (Log Scale chart target)
Comment:
Wednesday update post move down:
What an aggressive move by Gold to the downside with no news catalyst either. My scalp from Monday evening was taken out.
I believe this is a sign that the macro economic driving force that caused the macro Cup & Handle breakout to the upside (risk off/bank collapse) has eased off, and so there is less demand for USD alternatives like Gold and BTC. There was no impulsive move away from the 4h +OB that I said I was looking for, but rather an arcing move up and back down over two days. I still project that the breakout will continue, but with a slightly bigger pullback.
I am a day trader who is developing swing trading continuation strategies. I have now posted two continuation swing trades utilising SMT divergence that have failed.
The unconfirmed SMT divergence with Silver I mentioned in my initial post has failed, as was a possiblity. If you'll notice, Gold did not put in a 4h higher high swing, which I believe would have been the confirmation for SMT divergence with Silver.
Conclusion: SMT divergence HAS TO PLAY OUT ON THE TIMEFRAME IT FORMS ON.
If it's a SMT divergence on the 4h timeframe, Gold then has to break a previous 4h swing high to confirm the divergence or it's meaningless.
What an aggressive move by Gold to the downside with no news catalyst either. My scalp from Monday evening was taken out.
I believe this is a sign that the macro economic driving force that caused the macro Cup & Handle breakout to the upside (risk off/bank collapse) has eased off, and so there is less demand for USD alternatives like Gold and BTC. There was no impulsive move away from the 4h +OB that I said I was looking for, but rather an arcing move up and back down over two days. I still project that the breakout will continue, but with a slightly bigger pullback.
I am a day trader who is developing swing trading continuation strategies. I have now posted two continuation swing trades utilising SMT divergence that have failed.
The unconfirmed SMT divergence with Silver I mentioned in my initial post has failed, as was a possiblity. If you'll notice, Gold did not put in a 4h higher high swing, which I believe would have been the confirmation for SMT divergence with Silver.
Conclusion: SMT divergence HAS TO PLAY OUT ON THE TIMEFRAME IT FORMS ON.
If it's a SMT divergence on the 4h timeframe, Gold then has to break a previous 4h swing high to confirm the divergence or it's meaningless.
Comment:
Here is the SMT divergence that failed, due to not putting in a 4h higher high:
Comment:
New plan: