GOLD → How long will the distribution phase in the channel last?

XAUUSD is entering the distribution phase after the consolidation phase. The market is trying to test the local lows, but will the price go even lower, because there is news ahead.

The 4H clearly shows an uptrend within which a correction is forming. Until the price overcomes the area of 2015 - 1980, we should not talk about a global change in the trend. The chart shows that the bulls will continue to hold the area of 2010-2020 on the background of numerous retests, but the sellers are gaining momentum and continue to push the price to the level. At the moment in the distribution phase the price is heading towards 2009 - 2004. And there is a high probability of testing these levels, but we are interested in the news (fundamental) background. Since gold is trading inside the descending price channel, and the price has not yet tested the trend support area, it is difficult for us to talk about the possibility of its breakout, as we do not know the reaction and local preconditions. There is a higher probability of a bounce from the levels.

Support levels: 2009 (2010), 2004, 2000
Resistance levels: 2018, 2020, 2035

Gold's decline is difficult and slow as strong bulls try to contain the support area. A break of support will generate strong momentum and huge volume, but will it happen on the back of the news?

DXY GOLD GC1! MGC1!

Regards R. Linda!

Comment:

At 13:30 GMT expected news such as:
Core Durable Goods Order
GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
Initial Jobless Claims

And across the conglomerate, traders and analysts are expecting bad data for the US market.

Last period GDP was 4.9%, at this point traders are expecting 2.0%. The decline to this level is possible because at the moment the fundamental and political side is getting worse and it is seen on the background of another crisis in the red sea, which plays an important role for the world market, including the US. Huge spending on foreign policy, as well as rumors of an attempt to get rid of such a frontier as Syria. Some conclusions can be drawn from this.

The Durable Goods Orders Core measures the change in the total value of new orders for manufactured durable goods, excluding transportation goods.
It is a kind of inflation indicator. Analysts also expect the indicator to deteriorate by almost twofold.

Regarding Initial Jobless Claims. Last period the market received 187K. At the moment, based on the overall data, the probability is not so high that the indicator will decrease relative to this bar. Traders are expecting 200K and that is the more likely scenario.

If expectations are confirmed and the market receives either such information or data worse than expected, it may have a bad impact on the dollar. Accordingly, Forex may strengthen, as well as gold.

Comment: