Look for gold to perform similarly to how it behaved from 2009-2011.
I believe a significant part of gold's bear market from 2011-2015 was due to the world placing trust in the Central Banks and believing the lie that the Central banks had saved the day. That trust is fading quickly, evidenced from gold's move from 1180 to 1700 in the last 15 months. When ZIRP and QE forever becomes a reality gold will already be past $2000/oz and will make up for the years of underperformance.
This is not a pie in the sky prediction, this is real life. Every day the markets are getting closer and closer to fully pricing this reality in.
Lets do a quick comparison.
2008 Crash:
- dollar soared
- stocks fell
- gold fell, and less than stocks
- gold stocks fell worse than US stocks
- Emerging market stocks fell worse than US stocks
2020 Crash so far:
- dollar falling
- stocks falling
- gold holding steady
- gold stocks falling but more relative strength than US stocks
- Emerging markets falling but more relative strength than US stocks
What's different now? The dollar is getting ready for a big fall and the central bank balance sheets are getting ready to explode. 85 DXY wouldn't surprise me in 2020.
I believe a significant part of gold's bear market from 2011-2015 was due to the world placing trust in the Central Banks and believing the lie that the Central banks had saved the day. That trust is fading quickly, evidenced from gold's move from 1180 to 1700 in the last 15 months. When ZIRP and QE forever becomes a reality gold will already be past $2000/oz and will make up for the years of underperformance.
This is not a pie in the sky prediction, this is real life. Every day the markets are getting closer and closer to fully pricing this reality in.
Lets do a quick comparison.
2008 Crash:
- dollar soared
- stocks fell
- gold fell, and less than stocks
- gold stocks fell worse than US stocks
- Emerging market stocks fell worse than US stocks
2020 Crash so far:
- dollar falling
- stocks falling
- gold holding steady
- gold stocks falling but more relative strength than US stocks
- Emerging markets falling but more relative strength than US stocks
What's different now? The dollar is getting ready for a big fall and the central bank balance sheets are getting ready to explode. 85 DXY wouldn't surprise me in 2020.
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