Smart Money Concepts swing trading odyssey|Ep.11|11R short|Gold

Testing my own Phase C continuation limit order entry model for swing trading, using ICT's SMC toolkit.

Fed sentiment: Hawkish? bond yields up/possibly more hikes/USD strength
Trader sentiment: risk on? (Nasdaq rally/debt ceiling raise talks/inflation easing?)
Supply/Demand factors: people still in employment and spending money means demand

Overall sentiment: should be bullish if not for hawkish fed and dollar strength

Technicals: Gold overbought/in premium on higher timeframes, double top pattern yet to finish playing out. SMT divergence with Silver

Entry: Phase C pullback into premium of 4h swing high/fair value gap. tightened up stop because swept PDH (prev day high) giving a nice potential 11R return

Exit/terminus: MT of M -OB (50% of monthly bearish order block(Mean Threshhold))

Confidence: 7/10


Weekly chart:

Monthly chart (see order block):

Comment:

Well that one was a bust. Now I just need to figure out if it was because I shouldn't have tightened up my stop like that after PDH sweep when in phase C (which I currently have in my rules) - or - if my fundamental analysis was simply wrong and Dollar is no longer strong enough now to counter the risk on market.

All of the swing trades I've posted that have lost have been phase C continuations. That's where men are made though.😉 Not even close to giving up.

Comment:

Perfectly tapped rPOC of the last couple months; Gold still hasn't broken last swing high. The question remains: was this just a deeper pullback in a downtrend and stop was too tight for phase C....?

Comment:

... and zooming out to the weekly timeframe, we can see rPOC is also a weekly bearish breaker!

Comment:

So, nice rejection from rPOC/W -OB

Just had the second half of the employment numbers we began getting yesterday; more people in work than estimated they say, yet price drops. It's almost as I'f they show people what they want to see then trade against them.

This is the test for my question yesterday, if Gold keeps dropping from here, then perhaps the stop was just too tight for Phase C when we had conflicting or ambiguous fundamental sentiment. Perhaps I should have allowed room for a very deep retrace into the Phase B structure. If Gold continues higher then i simply did not do a good enough job of fundamental analysis.

Comment:

... And we STILL have SMT divergence with Silver.

Comment:

We have a MSS followed by an ICT Immediate Rebalance!

I'm going to have another attempt -
If it comes back up to fill the FVG I will enter in again and put my stop where it was before I tightened it up after the PDH sweep. Second and last try.

Comment:

Tagged in!
Going by ICT Weekly Profiles, we're over half way through the week and have crossed back over the weekly open, so we could see continuation lower to take out the sell- side liquidity in the form of stop losses marked by the line I've drawn with the -x-

Comment:

If we DO NOT see stops get taken out below these two lows I've circled before 8:30AM NY time (inflation news), I am closing the trade.

Market makers may pump the price and the loss could be crazy due to slippage.

If we do dump before inflation news tomorrow, I will take half off and move stop to break even.

Comment:

I'm closing out now at 0.5R. News coming up. If it goes in my direction I'm not bothered as I gave it a couple weeks to move and it's less likely with DXY turning down. My swing trading is supplementary to day trading, and I'm still closing in profit so I'm chillin either way.