Is a breaking up due?
Your guess is as good as mine. Only thing I know is that indices are not in an area I'm willing to keep my normal positions on.
Trimmed already yesterday and upped my stops on most positions except bonds and gold, as was posted during May
and and early July
Momentum is showing a hidden negative divergence as printed a HH while the index has not yet. More often than not, resistance at upper wedge lines is strong and assets are coming back to retest the newly printed swing low.
VIX by breaking below June low is technically in a downtrend, although found well expected support at the fresh demand zone from April 20 low. Downtrend is easily visible by BBands too.
Put Call ratio is not at extremes, a measure that usually almost guarantee sudden and violate moves.
$VVIX also is currently at 86 while usually has to be >100 to support a violent move in $VIX
$VIX term structure is also not at extreme as of yet and needs to cross above 1 to think about shorting.
Last but not least, call buying by small traders (not shown) is sitting really low at 0.37 while they keep buying puts to open, despite the rally. As a contrarian signal maybe means something.
Of course if any of the above conditions change, short positions will be open immediately as for the time being I'm leaning to "bear market rally camp".
Cheers,
P.
Your guess is as good as mine. Only thing I know is that indices are not in an area I'm willing to keep my normal positions on.
Trimmed already yesterday and upped my stops on most positions except bonds and gold, as was posted during May
and and early July
Momentum is showing a hidden negative divergence as printed a HH while the index has not yet. More often than not, resistance at upper wedge lines is strong and assets are coming back to retest the newly printed swing low.
VIX by breaking below June low is technically in a downtrend, although found well expected support at the fresh demand zone from April 20 low. Downtrend is easily visible by BBands too.
Put Call ratio is not at extremes, a measure that usually almost guarantee sudden and violate moves.
$VVIX also is currently at 86 while usually has to be >100 to support a violent move in $VIX
$VIX term structure is also not at extreme as of yet and needs to cross above 1 to think about shorting.
Last but not least, call buying by small traders (not shown) is sitting really low at 0.37 while they keep buying puts to open, despite the rally. As a contrarian signal maybe means something.
Of course if any of the above conditions change, short positions will be open immediately as for the time being I'm leaning to "bear market rally camp".
Cheers,
P.
