USDJPY → At 152.000 Resistance! Will it break to 160.000?

USD/JPY has been bullish since January 2021 and is currently in an ascending triangle pattern, indicating a potential push through the 152.000 resistance level. Is this the moment to long?

How do we trade this? 🤔
We need to wait for a confirmed breakout of 152.000. The probability of a breakout is high, but we need the confirmation of support at 152.000 to justify a long entry. Once we see a strong bull candle off of support, a 1:2 Risk/Reward on the Weekly timeframe is a straightforward trade to take. The RSI is around 60.00 and above the Moving Average, providing enough headroom for a move to the upside.

It's also reasonable to take a long trade on the Daily timeframe which will allow you to get an earlier entry and a better Risk/Reward, but the Weekly timeframe provides us with a clearer picture of the situation. When Take Profit #1 is hit, half of the position should be sold, the stop loss should be moved to the entry price, and the second half of the position should go to Take Profit #2. This locks in profits after the first take profit which is at 1:1 Risk/Reward.


💡 Trade Idea 💡

Long Entry: 153.570
🟥 Stop Loss: 150.900
✅ Take Profit #1: $156.400
✅ Take Profit #2: $158.900
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2


🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑

1. Ascending Triangle at 152.000 Resistance level, a bullish pattern.
2. 30EMA providing key support above the ascending support band.
3. Wait for a breakout of 152.000 resistance and confirmation of support to long
4. Enter a 1:2 Risk/Reward trade taking half profits at 1:1 Risk/Reward.
5. RSI at 60.00 and above the Moving Average, supports long bias.


💰 Trading Tip 💰
The longer a trend continues after 3 legs, the probability of that trend continuing lessens. Because of this decreased probability, we ought to reduce our risk when entering trades.


⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!


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Comment:

USDJPY has broken out of the 152.000! The ascending triangle played out, but this is not the time to long, we need some confirmation bars to confirm the breakout. Once the previous 152.000 resistance is confirmed as support with a strong bull bar closing on or near its high. Two consecutive strong bull bars bouncing off 152.000 is preferred.

I am continuing to long scalp the 5m chart until the 4HR and Daily chart show that confirmation. More updates to come!

Comment:

USD/JPY ended last week with some strong bullish price action. A quick dip to the 152.600 area followed by a strong reaction toward the high of the ascending channel. I propose that quick dip acted as our re-test of the previous resistance area and confirmed support. There is plenty of room without major resistance to target the measured move around 154.520.

I believe it's reasonable to enter a long if we get a breakout of this ascending channel. It may even be reasonable to enter a trade after the close of the first hourly bar assuming it puts in a higher high.

Comment:

Measured move target almost hit! I've been long scalping this trend on the 10-Second, 1-Minute, and 5-Minute charts racking in some great profits. Once this target is hit, let's see where the price action takes us. This could be a bull exhaustion candle after the breakout and measured move target is hit. Best to remain cautious and look for signals of a pullback.