USDCAD Short

This is a continuation of my previous USDCAD short call, which was stopped out. It appears the H&S resistance did not hold. However, if USDCAD falls to the 1.82 support level, it may confirm another piece to the Elliott puzzle. It would also explain why the 4th and 1st waves were previously overlapping in my miscount - which is highly unlikely to occur.

I have recounted the waves, updated the TPs, and updated the stop. However, as nothing is confirmed yet, do not enter the trade. In the new counting, all Elliott rules and guidelines are sufficiently satisfied. Further, Waves 1 and 2 are perfectly aligned with fib levels.
1. Wave 2 has retraced 61.8% of Wave 1
2. Wave 2 overlaps with previous Wave 4
3. Wave 4 does not overlap with Wave 1
4. Wave 3 is the longest of the 3.

Comment:

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Just wanted to add that yesterday's weird price action, where an impulse wave was predicted, is perfectly explained by the new counting. Lower degree impulses may fail to exist or patterns such as triangles may form on correction waves. Yesterday's consolidation period was a corrective iv wave.

Trade active:

SL: 1.29
TP1: 1.253
TP2: 1.23

Comment:

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A retracement will occur around the 1.276 area of around 38.2% to 61.8%. For anyone who is actively watching this pair, this is an opportunity to add more short at a better price.

Comment:

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A retrace of 38.2% to 50% for sub-wave ii appears to have been complete. A decent drop should be anticipated between today and tomorrow.

Comment:

Just wanted to add that you can now move SL to 1.286 to protect profits and exit if the trade needs re-analysis.

Comment:

Miscounted. Subwave ii has not completed yet. Approaching the 61.8% level.

Comment:

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Subwave ii looks to have completed a 61.8% retrace.

Comment:

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Hit the 78.2% level. Possible H&S forming.

Trade closed manually:

Trade looks finished.

Comment:

One of the problems with trying to catch an Elliott Wave at the top/bottom is that you don't know when the wave is actually finished. We will keep attempting to predict a good short, but will need to wait for a confirmed retrace of the first impulse down.

Comment:

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Possible recount. Will post an updated idea once the puzzle becomes clearer.

Comment:

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My recount may have been bang-on. Will wait for confirmation.

Trade active:

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Bearish price action and volume is ramping up. My initial prediction seems to have not been far off. It is possible to enter right now and catch the top or enter after a retrace from 1.28.

SL if entering now is 1.29

Comment:

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A retrace has been completed and the structure is holding. If you haven't entered already, it is still possible to catch this trade. I've moved the SL down to respect the retrace.

SL: 1.287
TP: 1.273

Trade closed manually:

If you were still in this trade, USDCAD is forecasted to go up. Take profits now.