DOW JONES US30 :BULLS DEFENDING THEIR ZONE
The Dow closed 540 points higher on Friday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were up 1.8% and 2.2%, respectively, boosted by a sharp rebound in regional banks and solid jobs report that tempered fears of a recession. PacWest and Western Alliance rebounded sharply by 81.7% and 49.3%, leading regional banks’ gains after JPMorgan upgraded Western Alliance, Zions Bancorp and Comerica in a note and stated the three banks appear “substantially mispriced” in part due to short-selling activity. Also, investors welcomed positive earnings from Apple, pushing its stock up 4.7%. On the data front, the US nonfarm payrolls and wage growth accelerated more than expected in April indicating that the US economy remains strong, challenging the expectation that the Federal Reserve rate-hike cycle would end. On a weekly basis, the Dow and S&P 500 lost 1.5% and 0.9%, while Nasdaq gained 0.1% and hit its 37-week high.
Technical
(1) 31500 and 32615 are the next possible buying zones where Bulls will attack the Bears. The Maket Bias is Bullish, but the momentum is slowing down....(profit taking)
Inceasing volume and higher momentum will bring back the DOW to 34597 (1) .
The volume has more powerfull shifts, meaning that more participants start to push DOW higher.
In case the Bulls hold this zone the next taget will be 35659 ( 2) and then 36968 (3)
FED´s Plan could send DOW 45099( Target1) probably in 2nd Quarter 2024
and to 54695 (Target2) in 2025-2026
(4) Profit Taking over the weekend could send DOW at the beginning of the next week to 32473.
(5) In case the Maket loses this zone the next retracement aea will be 31464
(6) Last Resort: Eveything below 31287 will be the last chance for the Bulls to defend their positions
30880
30332
29164
28651
SHORT SET-Up:
If the Market breaks this area ,then the Bears will aggessively take control over the market.
The pice will soar to around 24000 very fast ( See 7)
and losing that zone will bring Dow back to
22598
and then
20593 (See 8)
Technical
(1) 31500 and 32615 are the next possible buying zones where Bulls will attack the Bears. The Maket Bias is Bullish, but the momentum is slowing down....(profit taking)
Inceasing volume and higher momentum will bring back the DOW to 34597 (1) .
The volume has more powerfull shifts, meaning that more participants start to push DOW higher.
In case the Bulls hold this zone the next taget will be 35659 ( 2) and then 36968 (3)
FED´s Plan could send DOW 45099( Target1) probably in 2nd Quarter 2024
and to 54695 (Target2) in 2025-2026
(4) Profit Taking over the weekend could send DOW at the beginning of the next week to 32473.
(5) In case the Maket loses this zone the next retracement aea will be 31464
(6) Last Resort: Eveything below 31287 will be the last chance for the Bulls to defend their positions
30880
30332
29164
28651
SHORT SET-Up:
If the Market breaks this area ,then the Bears will aggessively take control over the market.
The pice will soar to around 24000 very fast ( See 7)
and losing that zone will bring Dow back to
22598
and then
20593 (See 8)
Comment:
Dow Jones moved towards the 33,600 level amid a broad rally in the equity markets. Apple, Disney, and Chevron were the best performers in the Dow Jones index. Today’s rally was extremely broad, and Intel was the only loser among Dow Jones components.
A move above the 33,700 level will push Dow Jones towards the resistance at 33,850. If Dow Jones manages to settle above 33,850, it will head towards the next resistance at 34,000.
R1:33,700 – R2:33,850 – R3:34,000
S1:33,500 – S2:33,300 – S3:33,175
A move above the 33,700 level will push Dow Jones towards the resistance at 33,850. If Dow Jones manages to settle above 33,850, it will head towards the next resistance at 34,000.
R1:33,700 – R2:33,850 – R3:34,000
S1:33,500 – S2:33,300 – S3:33,175
Comment:
Week Ahead: US CPI Report May Rock These 3 Markets
Even as anticipation mounts ahead of the US jobs data due later today, investors may be bracing for more volatility in the week ahead thanks to another round of risk events.
Economic Calendar for Next Week
All eyes will be on the incoming US inflation data as well as speeches from financial heavyweights and other risk events which could spark some fresh action across markets.
Monday, May 8
UK bank holiday honouring Charles III coronation
EUR: Germany industrial production, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane speech
Tuesday, May 9
CHN: China trade, money supply
AUD: Australia consumer confidence
EUR: ECB Chief Economic Philip Lane speech (IMF)
USD: Fed New York President John Williams speech
US President Joe Biden debt ceiling talks
Wednesday, May 10
EUR: Germany April CPI (final)
USD: US April CPI
Thursday, May 11
CNH: China PPI, CPI
GBP: UK BOE rate decision & press conference
USD: US PPI, initial jobless claims
G7 finance ministers meet in Japan
Friday, May 12
GBP: UK Industrial production, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speech
USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Fed speeches
The April US consumer price index (CPI) report published on Wednesday 10th May will be exactly one week after the Federal Reserve raised rates and signalled a pause in further increases.
Given how Fed Chair Jerome Powell has left the door open to further tightening if incoming economic data warrants, this could add more spice to the report.
CPI Forecasts
Markets are forecasting:
CPI year-on-year (April 2023 vs. April 2022) to remain steady at 5.0%.
Core CPI year-on-year to cool 5.4% from the 5.6% in the prior month.
CPI month-on-month (April 2023 vs March 2023) to rise 0.4% from 0.1% in the prior month.
Core CPI month-on-month to cool 0.3% from the 0.4% in the prior month.
Ultimately, further evidence of inflation slowing down could reinforce expectations around the Federal Reserve pausing and eventually cutting interest rates. Should inflation remain sticky, this could rekindle bets around the Fed leaving interest rates higher for longer.
Expectations are rising over the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates with the chance of a 25-basis point cut in July currently priced at 53%, according to Fed funds futures! It will be interesting to see how the incoming inflation data shapes market expectations around the central bank’s next move.
How Might the Markets React to the CPI Report?
With all of the above discussed, here’s how these 3 assets could react to the US CPI report
USD Index
The past few months have been rough and rocky for the dollar as investors weighed the prospects of the Federal Reserve pausing and then eventually cutting interest rates. More pain could be in store for the dollar if US inflation cools more than expected in April.
A soft inflation print may drag the USD Index toward the 100.72 level. Should prices experience a bearish breakout, this could open the doors toward 100.
A sticky inflation print could throw a lifeline to dollar bulls, propelling back above 101.50 with 102.34 acting as a key level of interest.
SPX500_m
After being trapped within a range for the past few weeks, could a breakout be on the horizon for the SPX500_m?
If the inflation numbers beat expectations, this may trigger a bearish breakout on the SPX500_m – taking prices below the 4050-support level.
Should the inflation numbers come in lower than market forecasts, SPX500_m bulls could be injected with renewed confidence as expectations intensify over the Fed ending its rate cycle. This could send the index back toward the 4180 resistance level and beyond.
Gold
It may be wise to fasten your seatbelts for potential volatility on gold due to its high sensitivity to inflation data and US interest rate expectations. The precious metal remains bullish on the daily charts despite prices pulling back from near-record highs.
A soft inflation report could sweeten appetite for the zero-yielding asset as bets rise over the Fed cutting rates in 2023. This development could push the metal back towards the 2023 high of $2063 with bulls eyeing $2070 and the all-time high at $2075.
A stronger-than-expected inflation number could drag gold prices back toward the psychological $2000 level.
Even as anticipation mounts ahead of the US jobs data due later today, investors may be bracing for more volatility in the week ahead thanks to another round of risk events.
Economic Calendar for Next Week
All eyes will be on the incoming US inflation data as well as speeches from financial heavyweights and other risk events which could spark some fresh action across markets.
Monday, May 8
UK bank holiday honouring Charles III coronation
EUR: Germany industrial production, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane speech
Tuesday, May 9
CHN: China trade, money supply
AUD: Australia consumer confidence
EUR: ECB Chief Economic Philip Lane speech (IMF)
USD: Fed New York President John Williams speech
US President Joe Biden debt ceiling talks
Wednesday, May 10
EUR: Germany April CPI (final)
USD: US April CPI
Thursday, May 11
CNH: China PPI, CPI
GBP: UK BOE rate decision & press conference
USD: US PPI, initial jobless claims
G7 finance ministers meet in Japan
Friday, May 12
GBP: UK Industrial production, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speech
USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Fed speeches
The April US consumer price index (CPI) report published on Wednesday 10th May will be exactly one week after the Federal Reserve raised rates and signalled a pause in further increases.
Given how Fed Chair Jerome Powell has left the door open to further tightening if incoming economic data warrants, this could add more spice to the report.
CPI Forecasts
Markets are forecasting:
CPI year-on-year (April 2023 vs. April 2022) to remain steady at 5.0%.
Core CPI year-on-year to cool 5.4% from the 5.6% in the prior month.
CPI month-on-month (April 2023 vs March 2023) to rise 0.4% from 0.1% in the prior month.
Core CPI month-on-month to cool 0.3% from the 0.4% in the prior month.
Ultimately, further evidence of inflation slowing down could reinforce expectations around the Federal Reserve pausing and eventually cutting interest rates. Should inflation remain sticky, this could rekindle bets around the Fed leaving interest rates higher for longer.
Expectations are rising over the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates with the chance of a 25-basis point cut in July currently priced at 53%, according to Fed funds futures! It will be interesting to see how the incoming inflation data shapes market expectations around the central bank’s next move.
How Might the Markets React to the CPI Report?
With all of the above discussed, here’s how these 3 assets could react to the US CPI report
USD Index
The past few months have been rough and rocky for the dollar as investors weighed the prospects of the Federal Reserve pausing and then eventually cutting interest rates. More pain could be in store for the dollar if US inflation cools more than expected in April.
A soft inflation print may drag the USD Index toward the 100.72 level. Should prices experience a bearish breakout, this could open the doors toward 100.
A sticky inflation print could throw a lifeline to dollar bulls, propelling back above 101.50 with 102.34 acting as a key level of interest.
SPX500_m
After being trapped within a range for the past few weeks, could a breakout be on the horizon for the SPX500_m?
If the inflation numbers beat expectations, this may trigger a bearish breakout on the SPX500_m – taking prices below the 4050-support level.
Should the inflation numbers come in lower than market forecasts, SPX500_m bulls could be injected with renewed confidence as expectations intensify over the Fed ending its rate cycle. This could send the index back toward the 4180 resistance level and beyond.
Gold
It may be wise to fasten your seatbelts for potential volatility on gold due to its high sensitivity to inflation data and US interest rate expectations. The precious metal remains bullish on the daily charts despite prices pulling back from near-record highs.
A soft inflation report could sweeten appetite for the zero-yielding asset as bets rise over the Fed cutting rates in 2023. This development could push the metal back towards the 2023 high of $2063 with bulls eyeing $2070 and the all-time high at $2075.
A stronger-than-expected inflation number could drag gold prices back toward the psychological $2000 level.
Comment:
Traders Take Profits After Report Reveals Strong US Job Growth
Technically speaking gold traded through a series of lower highs and strong support at $1980.
Market participants used the jobs report to actively engage in U.S. equities taking all three major indices higher. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 1.65%. The Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 1.85%, and the NASDAQ composite gained 2.25% in active trading today.
Gold Prices Drop as Investors Take Profit Despite Strong Fundamentals
Gold investors and traders also used this report as a reason to pull profits from recent gains in gold which had roughly a $100 trading range from Tuesday’s open at $1990 to yesterday’s high of $2083. Before the upside breakout in gold which occurred on Tuesday, May 2 gold pricing was contained in a narrow trading range between $1980 and $2020.
Technically speaking gold traded through a series of lower highs and strong support at $1980. This created an asymmetrical triangle pattern composed of a descending top and a flat bottom. Typically, this type of asymmetrical triangle occurs during a price correction and once pricing reaches the apex of the triangle market technicians look for a break to lower pricing. In rare instances, this pattern can be found during an uptrend as witnessed this week in gold.
Considering that the major fundamental factors that have moved gold substantially higher are still unresolved and worrisome today’s strong decline in gold prices could present an opportunity to buy the dip. There is still common ground that both Democrats and Republicans can sign off on as we get closer and closer to the date at which the government can no longer meet its obligations. Whether or not there are more midsize regional banks that could become insolvent is unknown. Combined these issues could certainly continue to be highly supportive of gold prices moving them higher.
However, gold enthusiasts got a reprieve today as gold futures dropped $30.80 or 1.5% with the most active June 2023 Comex contract currently fixed at $2024.90.
Technically speaking gold traded through a series of lower highs and strong support at $1980.
Market participants used the jobs report to actively engage in U.S. equities taking all three major indices higher. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 1.65%. The Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 1.85%, and the NASDAQ composite gained 2.25% in active trading today.
Gold Prices Drop as Investors Take Profit Despite Strong Fundamentals
Gold investors and traders also used this report as a reason to pull profits from recent gains in gold which had roughly a $100 trading range from Tuesday’s open at $1990 to yesterday’s high of $2083. Before the upside breakout in gold which occurred on Tuesday, May 2 gold pricing was contained in a narrow trading range between $1980 and $2020.
Technically speaking gold traded through a series of lower highs and strong support at $1980. This created an asymmetrical triangle pattern composed of a descending top and a flat bottom. Typically, this type of asymmetrical triangle occurs during a price correction and once pricing reaches the apex of the triangle market technicians look for a break to lower pricing. In rare instances, this pattern can be found during an uptrend as witnessed this week in gold.
Considering that the major fundamental factors that have moved gold substantially higher are still unresolved and worrisome today’s strong decline in gold prices could present an opportunity to buy the dip. There is still common ground that both Democrats and Republicans can sign off on as we get closer and closer to the date at which the government can no longer meet its obligations. Whether or not there are more midsize regional banks that could become insolvent is unknown. Combined these issues could certainly continue to be highly supportive of gold prices moving them higher.
However, gold enthusiasts got a reprieve today as gold futures dropped $30.80 or 1.5% with the most active June 2023 Comex contract currently fixed at $2024.90.
Comment:
The US Week Ahead
The US CPI Report will impact the EUR/USD on Wednesday. Following the US Jobs Report, a hotter-than-expected US CPI Report would refuel bets on a June Fed interest rate hike.
On Thursday, wholesale inflation and jobless claims figures will also draw interest before consumer sentiment numbers on Friday.
Investors should track FOMC member reactions to the US Jobs Report and the incoming US CPI Report.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point June interest rate hike rose from 0.0% to 8.5%. On Friday, the US Jobs Report drove the modest rise. However, the US Jobs Report wiped out bets on a June Fed interest rate cut.
The US CPI Report will impact the EUR/USD on Wednesday. Following the US Jobs Report, a hotter-than-expected US CPI Report would refuel bets on a June Fed interest rate hike.
On Thursday, wholesale inflation and jobless claims figures will also draw interest before consumer sentiment numbers on Friday.
Investors should track FOMC member reactions to the US Jobs Report and the incoming US CPI Report.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point June interest rate hike rose from 0.0% to 8.5%. On Friday, the US Jobs Report drove the modest rise. However, the US Jobs Report wiped out bets on a June Fed interest rate cut.
Comment:
Fed says banking sector looks set to weather recent turmoil
"The Federal Reserve is prepared to address any liquidity pressures that may arise and is committed to ensuring that the U.S. banking system continues to perform its vital roles," the Fed said.
While the central bank noted there were spillover concerns following the failures of Santa Clara, California-based SVB and New York-based Signature, it maintained that the issues that sank those regional banks do not appear broadly across the banking sector, calling them "outliers" in terms of heavy reliance on uninsured deposits.
Those firms, as well as First Republic Bank, which was closed by regulators earlier this month and sold to JP Morgan Chase, also were grappling with large amounts of unrealized losses spurred by rapidly rising interest rates. Depositors fled SVB within days after it appeared the firm was in trouble, precipitating its abrupt closure.
The Fed noted in its report on Monday that more than 45% of bank assets reprice or mature within a year, suggesting there is not heavy exposure to less valuable securities for long periods of time. But while the amount of uninsured deposits at banks is declining, they still remain above historical averages after an influx of deposits spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic. In aggregate, it said banks remain well-capitalized.
DEBT LIMIT CONCERNS
The Fed released the report shortly after a separate central bank survey found banks were tightening credit standards amid weaker loan demand.
Beyond banks, the Fed said pressures on various market sectors remained within historical norms. However, it noted that valuations on commercial real estate remain high, which suggests there could be a "sizable" correction in property values should telework trends remain strong. The Fed found that banks hold about 60% of commercial real estate loans, with two-thirds of those at smaller lenders with less than $100 billion in assets.
The Fed's report also found that nearly half of its respondents identified the U.S. debt limit as a salient risk, after not appearing as a top concern in the previous report in November. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the limit could be reached in June, but Democrats and Republicans are still sparring over what conditions, if any, should be attached to an increase.
Banking sector stresses were identified as a risk by more than half of respondents, up from 12% in the November report.
"The Federal Reserve is prepared to address any liquidity pressures that may arise and is committed to ensuring that the U.S. banking system continues to perform its vital roles," the Fed said.
While the central bank noted there were spillover concerns following the failures of Santa Clara, California-based SVB and New York-based Signature, it maintained that the issues that sank those regional banks do not appear broadly across the banking sector, calling them "outliers" in terms of heavy reliance on uninsured deposits.
Those firms, as well as First Republic Bank, which was closed by regulators earlier this month and sold to JP Morgan Chase, also were grappling with large amounts of unrealized losses spurred by rapidly rising interest rates. Depositors fled SVB within days after it appeared the firm was in trouble, precipitating its abrupt closure.
The Fed noted in its report on Monday that more than 45% of bank assets reprice or mature within a year, suggesting there is not heavy exposure to less valuable securities for long periods of time. But while the amount of uninsured deposits at banks is declining, they still remain above historical averages after an influx of deposits spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic. In aggregate, it said banks remain well-capitalized.
DEBT LIMIT CONCERNS
The Fed released the report shortly after a separate central bank survey found banks were tightening credit standards amid weaker loan demand.
Beyond banks, the Fed said pressures on various market sectors remained within historical norms. However, it noted that valuations on commercial real estate remain high, which suggests there could be a "sizable" correction in property values should telework trends remain strong. The Fed found that banks hold about 60% of commercial real estate loans, with two-thirds of those at smaller lenders with less than $100 billion in assets.
The Fed's report also found that nearly half of its respondents identified the U.S. debt limit as a salient risk, after not appearing as a top concern in the previous report in November. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the limit could be reached in June, but Democrats and Republicans are still sparring over what conditions, if any, should be attached to an increase.
Banking sector stresses were identified as a risk by more than half of respondents, up from 12% in the November report.
Comment:
DAILY LON
6D BAR LONG
4H LONG
2H LONG
6D BAR LONG
4H LONG
2H LONG
Comment:
Recession in the United States
Will the recession in the US – if it is actually rolling – significantly reduce the demand for oil, which could justify the already falling oil price? Well, on Friday at 2:30 p.m. they showed US labor market data for April: The US unemployment rate drops to 3.4% ( forecast 3.6% ). And: 253,000 new jobs were created in the USA in April ( Forecast + 180,000 ). So the US economy is running more robust than many analysts thought. Does that mean for the oil price? Possibly oil demand will continue to be at a higher level, which the futures market immediately priced in. Since Friday at 2:30 p.m. we have seen an increase in American WTI oil of $ 2.
Will the recession in the US – if it is actually rolling – significantly reduce the demand for oil, which could justify the already falling oil price? Well, on Friday at 2:30 p.m. they showed US labor market data for April: The US unemployment rate drops to 3.4% ( forecast 3.6% ). And: 253,000 new jobs were created in the USA in April ( Forecast + 180,000 ). So the US economy is running more robust than many analysts thought. Does that mean for the oil price? Possibly oil demand will continue to be at a higher level, which the futures market immediately priced in. Since Friday at 2:30 p.m. we have seen an increase in American WTI oil of $ 2.
Comment:
Nasdaq: Big Tech stocks are increasing – but indices are not, why?
Big Tech stocks from the Nasdaq Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta rose sharply after submitting their quarterly figures –, but the US indices of Wall Street no longer rise. The exception was the Nasdaq yesterday, but that was only due to Microsoft, which gave the index + 114 points, while the index itself only gained a total of 81 points – without Microsoft, the tech index would also have fallen. But why are the US stock markets not increasing despite the increase in large tech stocks? Because the markets are finally accepting that a recession is coming and the best is already behind us. The Usm rates remain stable – but the margins are significantly weaker: these are clear signs of an economic downturn.According to the actually sobering numbers of Meta ( share, + 11% ), it is Amazon's turn today to number three in S&P 500 by weighting..
Big Tech stocks from the Nasdaq Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta rose sharply after submitting their quarterly figures –, but the US indices of Wall Street no longer rise. The exception was the Nasdaq yesterday, but that was only due to Microsoft, which gave the index + 114 points, while the index itself only gained a total of 81 points – without Microsoft, the tech index would also have fallen. But why are the US stock markets not increasing despite the increase in large tech stocks? Because the markets are finally accepting that a recession is coming and the best is already behind us. The Usm rates remain stable – but the margins are significantly weaker: these are clear signs of an economic downturn.According to the actually sobering numbers of Meta ( share, + 11% ), it is Amazon's turn today to number three in S&P 500 by weighting..
Comment:
Allianz chief economist warns of the risk of a new “ financial accident “
According to the chief economist of the alliance, there is a risk of new "financial accidents". It's about heavily debt-ridden financial markets.
What have you seen? From 2007 it was the US real estate market that US financial crisis 2008 triggered. Then there was the Euro sovereign debt crisis, then 2020 Corona crisis, then inflation, and then the Ukraine war. Again and again there are events that are not foreseen by the general public and also by the broad mass of „ experts “, or that simply cannot be foreseen ( see Corona ). The higher inflation was very well forecast by some of the analyst and economist community. And so it is today with a view to possibly further upcoming „ financial accidents “.
Will there be further breakdowns at US banks? Has this crisis been going on for two months? Crashen numerous overly committed Hedge funds, who gamble fully on credit? Do securitized loan packages for company takeovers collapse? Is the commercial real estate market collapsing? This is a danger, especially in the USA. In the opinion of the chief economist of the alliance, investors in the financial markets should be prepared for months of market adjustments, which are overshadowed by the risk of a new “ financial accident ”. “ We have all the ingredients for a so-called Minsky moment ”, so Ludovic Subran explained it today at Bloomberg TV. The economist Hyman Minsky had described situations in which heavily debt-ridden financial markets suddenly collapse. “ You can see that everywhere, these liquidity pools or liquidity bottlenecks are slowly becoming visible. ”
Since the Regional bank crisis in the United States others have already expressed themselves in this regard. Subran's remarks, however, underline that the circumstances that led to the panic of investors in bank stocks in the United States and in Europe collapse that Credit Suisse ushered in, did not disappear. “ Of course, commercial real estate and the vicious circle with regional banks in the United States are worrying ”, he said. “ I am concerned about the incorrect assessment of corporate credit risks — especially if you look at it, that high interest rate risk premiums are still too small to be honest. For me, the focus is also on financial intermediaries outside the banking sector. ”
In addition to the current tensions, the global monetary policy turnaround has led to aggressive interest rate hikes ( see ECB and Fed), says Subran, who previously worked for the World Bank and the French Ministry of Finance. However, there is more to it. “ The very abrupt tightening is a problem for everyone. But there is also the level of wrong risk management. A new financial accident could come from the banking sector, but also from some hedge funds ” that specialize very heavily in commercial real estate. But there is also a problem that arises from a mixture of these two factors.
According to the chief economist of the alliance, there is a risk of new "financial accidents". It's about heavily debt-ridden financial markets.
What have you seen? From 2007 it was the US real estate market that US financial crisis 2008 triggered. Then there was the Euro sovereign debt crisis, then 2020 Corona crisis, then inflation, and then the Ukraine war. Again and again there are events that are not foreseen by the general public and also by the broad mass of „ experts “, or that simply cannot be foreseen ( see Corona ). The higher inflation was very well forecast by some of the analyst and economist community. And so it is today with a view to possibly further upcoming „ financial accidents “.
Will there be further breakdowns at US banks? Has this crisis been going on for two months? Crashen numerous overly committed Hedge funds, who gamble fully on credit? Do securitized loan packages for company takeovers collapse? Is the commercial real estate market collapsing? This is a danger, especially in the USA. In the opinion of the chief economist of the alliance, investors in the financial markets should be prepared for months of market adjustments, which are overshadowed by the risk of a new “ financial accident ”. “ We have all the ingredients for a so-called Minsky moment ”, so Ludovic Subran explained it today at Bloomberg TV. The economist Hyman Minsky had described situations in which heavily debt-ridden financial markets suddenly collapse. “ You can see that everywhere, these liquidity pools or liquidity bottlenecks are slowly becoming visible. ”
Since the Regional bank crisis in the United States others have already expressed themselves in this regard. Subran's remarks, however, underline that the circumstances that led to the panic of investors in bank stocks in the United States and in Europe collapse that Credit Suisse ushered in, did not disappear. “ Of course, commercial real estate and the vicious circle with regional banks in the United States are worrying ”, he said. “ I am concerned about the incorrect assessment of corporate credit risks — especially if you look at it, that high interest rate risk premiums are still too small to be honest. For me, the focus is also on financial intermediaries outside the banking sector. ”
In addition to the current tensions, the global monetary policy turnaround has led to aggressive interest rate hikes ( see ECB and Fed), says Subran, who previously worked for the World Bank and the French Ministry of Finance. However, there is more to it. “ The very abrupt tightening is a problem for everyone. But there is also the level of wrong risk management. A new financial accident could come from the banking sector, but also from some hedge funds ” that specialize very heavily in commercial real estate. But there is also a problem that arises from a mixture of these two factors.
Comment:
What is the debt ceiling?
The federal government operates in a deficit, spending more than it brings in with taxes, so it’s forced to borrow money to pay for everything from the salaries of armed forces and federal employees to Social Security
Congress has the power of the purse strings, letting it set a limit on what the government can borrow to pay for expenses (the debt ceiling). The current limit is $31.4 trillion.
What happens if the debt ceiling is not raised or suspended?
When does the U.S. hit spending limit?
How many times has the debt ceiling been raised?
How much has the U.S. debt increased in the past 20 years?
What caused the debt?
Answers here
The federal government operates in a deficit, spending more than it brings in with taxes, so it’s forced to borrow money to pay for everything from the salaries of armed forces and federal employees to Social Security
Congress has the power of the purse strings, letting it set a limit on what the government can borrow to pay for expenses (the debt ceiling). The current limit is $31.4 trillion.
What happens if the debt ceiling is not raised or suspended?
When does the U.S. hit spending limit?
How many times has the debt ceiling been raised?
How much has the U.S. debt increased in the past 20 years?
What caused the debt?
Answers here
Comment:
STILL lONG
US STOCKS-Dow futures fall as Disney drags
US STOCKS-Dow futures fall as Disney drags
Comment:
US Stocks Rise Led by TechUnited States Stock Market
US stocks rose on Monday, with the Dow Jones up more than 50 points, and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq up 0.4% and 0.6% respectively, as investors remained hopeful about a debt ceiling deal following successful staff-level negotiations over the weekend. President Joe Biden is expected to host top congressional leaders on Tuesday. Tech companies outperformed after European Union regulators approved Microsoft’s proposed $69 billion acquisition of gaming firm Activision Blizzard. Additionally, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed economist Austan Goolsbee signaled their preference for pausing interest-rate increases, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested the central bank may have more work to do in its inflation fight. Meanwhile, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index showed an unexpectedly big drop in manufacturing business activity this month.
US stocks rose on Monday, with the Dow Jones up more than 50 points, and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq up 0.4% and 0.6% respectively, as investors remained hopeful about a debt ceiling deal following successful staff-level negotiations over the weekend. President Joe Biden is expected to host top congressional leaders on Tuesday. Tech companies outperformed after European Union regulators approved Microsoft’s proposed $69 billion acquisition of gaming firm Activision Blizzard. Additionally, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed economist Austan Goolsbee signaled their preference for pausing interest-rate increases, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested the central bank may have more work to do in its inflation fight. Meanwhile, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index showed an unexpectedly big drop in manufacturing business activity this month.
Comment:
US Stocks RiseUnited States Stock Market
US stocks were in the green on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones rising more than 180 points, the S&P 500 up 0.5% and the Nasdaq gaining 0.4% as traders continue to follow the debt ceiling standoff, corporate results and a rebound in regional bank shares. Congressional leaders said Tuesday's talks on the debt limit were productive, but they're still far from a deal and would continue to have meetings later this week. Meanwhile, shares of Western Alliance Bancorp surged more than 10% after the lender reported growth in deposits this quarter. Also, Tesla stocks were up almost 1% after Elon Musk said the company will start to advertise its cars. On the other hand, earnings and revenue from Target topped forecasts but the shares were falling 1.1% after warning of softening sales trend.
US stocks were in the green on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones rising more than 180 points, the S&P 500 up 0.5% and the Nasdaq gaining 0.4% as traders continue to follow the debt ceiling standoff, corporate results and a rebound in regional bank shares. Congressional leaders said Tuesday's talks on the debt limit were productive, but they're still far from a deal and would continue to have meetings later this week. Meanwhile, shares of Western Alliance Bancorp surged more than 10% after the lender reported growth in deposits this quarter. Also, Tesla stocks were up almost 1% after Elon Musk said the company will start to advertise its cars. On the other hand, earnings and revenue from Target topped forecasts but the shares were falling 1.1% after warning of softening sales trend.
Comment:
US Housing Starts Unexpectedly Rise
Housing starts in the US unexpectedly increased 2.2% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.401 million in April of 2023, compared to market forecasts of 1.4 million. Data for March was revised sharply lower to 1.37 million from 1.42 million, as high prices, interest rates, and tighter lending standards continue to weigh. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 1.6% to a four-month high of 846K and starts in buildings with five units or more surged by 5.2% to 542K. Starts rose in the West (34.6% to 315K) and the Midwest (32.6% to 171K) but fell in the Northeast (-23.4% to 131K) and the South (-6.3% to 784K).
Housing starts in the US unexpectedly increased 2.2% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.401 million in April of 2023, compared to market forecasts of 1.4 million. Data for March was revised sharply lower to 1.37 million from 1.42 million, as high prices, interest rates, and tighter lending standards continue to weigh. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 1.6% to a four-month high of 846K and starts in buildings with five units or more surged by 5.2% to 542K. Starts rose in the West (34.6% to 315K) and the Midwest (32.6% to 171K) but fell in the Northeast (-23.4% to 131K) and the South (-6.3% to 784K).
Comment:
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note continued to march higher to top 3.6%, a level not seen in nearly two months, as investors follow the debt ceiling standoff and try to assess the Fed's next steps. Congressional lawmakers and President Biden expressed optimism on a deal and said the US will not default. At the same time, bets the Fed will cut rates this year fell and the chances of a pause in rate hikes in June also weakened. Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said Thursday current economic data doesn't justify yet pausing the rate hiking-cycle. Retail sales data released this week showed consumer spending remained resilient and initial claims fell more than anticipated.
Comment:
US stock futures edged higher on Friday after the major averages gained during Thursday’s regular session, as easing concerns about the US debt ceiling crisis and upbeat corporate earnings results lifted market sentiment. Dow and S&P 500 futures rose about 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.3%. In regular trading on Thursday, the S&P 500 climbed 0.94% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.21%, with both benchmarks hitting their highest levels since August, while the Dow rose 0.34%. Seven out of the 11 S&P sectors finished higher, led to the upside by technology, communication services and consumer discretionary. Investors continued to monitor negotiations on the US debt ceiling, with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy suggesting a potential deal could come as soon as next week. Positive corporate updates from major firms also boosted sentiment, with Nvidia surging nearly 5% after announcing it joined ServiceNow to build AI for enterprises.
Comment:
Monday happens nothing
tuesday
pmi important also for eurousd if euro gets stronger nasdaq and s+p500 and gold get stronger too
pmi for dollar at 9:45 watch closely and wait how the algos trade. Dont go immediately in,just be patient
also manufacturing data will be published. Important
Until the dat come out, the price moves higher or lower above/below the opening price ,but suddenly comes back to the opening level. No good idea to trade.
Wednesday 2p.m.: FOMC meeting, but this meeting is FOMC minute. High impact, but not so much as the real FOMC meeting,
10 a.m. Yellen will speak,
Thurseday: GDP,pending homesales,unemployment
Friday: Big Day,PCE coming out, also Durable goods
also consumer sentiments and inflation expectations.
Friday will be a very busy day. Watch for those data points.
tuesday
pmi important also for eurousd if euro gets stronger nasdaq and s+p500 and gold get stronger too
pmi for dollar at 9:45 watch closely and wait how the algos trade. Dont go immediately in,just be patient
also manufacturing data will be published. Important
Until the dat come out, the price moves higher or lower above/below the opening price ,but suddenly comes back to the opening level. No good idea to trade.
Wednesday 2p.m.: FOMC meeting, but this meeting is FOMC minute. High impact, but not so much as the real FOMC meeting,
10 a.m. Yellen will speak,
Thurseday: GDP,pending homesales,unemployment
Friday: Big Day,PCE coming out, also Durable goods
also consumer sentiments and inflation expectations.
Friday will be a very busy day. Watch for those data points.
Comment:
This week:
s+p500
4193 to 4180 should be filled. I am looking bearish this week until sp500 goes to around 4160.
There I will be prepared for a buy, if volume sinks, and we have a bullish signal. The volume has to be increase, while the price gos up again.
If not so, it could mean, that important news, what the public does not know will arrive soon.In this case I willstay out.
If we have buy presure, the target will be 4180, we hold above it, we go then to 4223, and then 4277, cuz there no resistance
Nasdaq US100
Big LVN zone 13563-13606 and a single close at 13689 and 13750
I am expecting that coming down and correction.No! I want to have this correction, before US100 begins a big buy pressure at this level and rise higher.
My bullish target will be then 13952,13999,14218 and 14298
There we have nearly no resistances
In case US100 falls below 13606,
it nears of 13518 but latestly 13350. There are my next Bulls waiting to welcome the bears and support the strong Buy pressure.
Bitcoin.Possibly will come down to 2395 area before the Buying pressure begins.
It has to go above 27700. If we start sideways and the volume reducing, I will take the first Profits, and wait for a second ,but powerfull bullish run.
Then we had the pullback to 38,2 Fib which is a bullflag level,
We pushed then the high ,and higher highs which was wonderful
Gold: we had very strong impulse from 1618 to 1973
Then we had the pullback to 38,2 Fib which is a bullflag level,
We pushed then the high ,and higher highs which was wonderful
The profit taking on the Highs put back Gold in a correction mode,
I am expecting Gold will come down to 1900-1936 (62%Fib.) and then we attack 2150, and then 2212.5
Important is: Gold must Close this week above 1900-1920.
If it doesn´t and falls below this level, then we will see 1840 agin. It will be a ull trend, ,but it will need longer to climb higher.
If we close above 1920 this Friday, then possibly in the next 14 Days Gold will RISE HIGHER...
s+p500
4193 to 4180 should be filled. I am looking bearish this week until sp500 goes to around 4160.
There I will be prepared for a buy, if volume sinks, and we have a bullish signal. The volume has to be increase, while the price gos up again.
If not so, it could mean, that important news, what the public does not know will arrive soon.In this case I willstay out.
If we have buy presure, the target will be 4180, we hold above it, we go then to 4223, and then 4277, cuz there no resistance
Nasdaq US100
Big LVN zone 13563-13606 and a single close at 13689 and 13750
I am expecting that coming down and correction.No! I want to have this correction, before US100 begins a big buy pressure at this level and rise higher.
My bullish target will be then 13952,13999,14218 and 14298
There we have nearly no resistances
In case US100 falls below 13606,
it nears of 13518 but latestly 13350. There are my next Bulls waiting to welcome the bears and support the strong Buy pressure.
Bitcoin.Possibly will come down to 2395 area before the Buying pressure begins.
It has to go above 27700. If we start sideways and the volume reducing, I will take the first Profits, and wait for a second ,but powerfull bullish run.
Then we had the pullback to 38,2 Fib which is a bullflag level,
We pushed then the high ,and higher highs which was wonderful
Gold: we had very strong impulse from 1618 to 1973
Then we had the pullback to 38,2 Fib which is a bullflag level,
We pushed then the high ,and higher highs which was wonderful
The profit taking on the Highs put back Gold in a correction mode,
I am expecting Gold will come down to 1900-1936 (62%Fib.) and then we attack 2150, and then 2212.5
Important is: Gold must Close this week above 1900-1920.
If it doesn´t and falls below this level, then we will see 1840 agin. It will be a ull trend, ,but it will need longer to climb higher.
If we close above 1920 this Friday, then possibly in the next 14 Days Gold will RISE HIGHER...
Comment:
Friday26.May is the Big Day of this week
US Stocks Lack Direction as Investors Eye Debt Ceiling and Inflation report
the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rebounded from early losses to trade slightly higher at 3.7%, the highest since mid-March, as traders assess the monetary policy outlook and the debt ceiling impasse in the US. On Monday, Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell mentioned that because of stress in the banking sector, it might be unnecessary to further raise rates to curb inflation. The likelihood of a pause in the rate hike cycle has been fluctuating, but currently, traders are assigning a 78% probability that the Fed will maintain the rates steady in June. Simultaneously, President Biden is scheduled to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Monday to continue negotiations regarding the debt ceiling. This follows an unsuccessful meeting between key negotiators on Friday.
US stocks traded around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Treasury Secretary Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. Meanwhile, traders continue to follow comments from several Fed officials: Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell nearly 4% after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded its stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks were also under pressure after the firm has been fined by European regulators.
US futures were around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell more than 4% in premarket trading after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded the company’s stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks lost nearly 1% after the firm has been fined a record €1.2 billion by European privacy regulators.
US Stocks Lack Direction as Investors Eye Debt Ceiling and Inflation report
the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rebounded from early losses to trade slightly higher at 3.7%, the highest since mid-March, as traders assess the monetary policy outlook and the debt ceiling impasse in the US. On Monday, Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell mentioned that because of stress in the banking sector, it might be unnecessary to further raise rates to curb inflation. The likelihood of a pause in the rate hike cycle has been fluctuating, but currently, traders are assigning a 78% probability that the Fed will maintain the rates steady in June. Simultaneously, President Biden is scheduled to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Monday to continue negotiations regarding the debt ceiling. This follows an unsuccessful meeting between key negotiators on Friday.
US stocks traded around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Treasury Secretary Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. Meanwhile, traders continue to follow comments from several Fed officials: Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell nearly 4% after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded its stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks were also under pressure after the firm has been fined by European regulators.
US futures were around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell more than 4% in premarket trading after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded the company’s stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks lost nearly 1% after the firm has been fined a record €1.2 billion by European privacy regulators.
Comment:
Friday26.May is the Big Day of this week
US Stocks Lack Direction as Investors Eye Debt Ceiling and Inflation report
the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rebounded from early losses to trade slightly higher at 3.7%, the highest since mid-March, as traders assess the monetary policy outlook and the debt ceiling impasse in the US. On Monday, Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell mentioned that because of stress in the banking sector, it might be unnecessary to further raise rates to curb inflation. The likelihood of a pause in the rate hike cycle has been fluctuating, but currently, traders are assigning a 78% probability that the Fed will maintain the rates steady in June. Simultaneously, President Biden is scheduled to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Monday to continue negotiations regarding the debt ceiling. This follows an unsuccessful meeting between key negotiators on Friday.
US stocks traded around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Treasury Secretary Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. Meanwhile, traders continue to follow comments from several Fed officials: Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell nearly 4% after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded its stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks were also under pressure after the firm has been fined by European regulators.
US futures were around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell more than 4% in premarket trading after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded the company’s stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks lost nearly 1% after the firm has been fined a record €1.2 billion by European privacy regulators.
US Stocks Lack Direction as Investors Eye Debt Ceiling and Inflation report
the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rebounded from early losses to trade slightly higher at 3.7%, the highest since mid-March, as traders assess the monetary policy outlook and the debt ceiling impasse in the US. On Monday, Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell mentioned that because of stress in the banking sector, it might be unnecessary to further raise rates to curb inflation. The likelihood of a pause in the rate hike cycle has been fluctuating, but currently, traders are assigning a 78% probability that the Fed will maintain the rates steady in June. Simultaneously, President Biden is scheduled to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Monday to continue negotiations regarding the debt ceiling. This follows an unsuccessful meeting between key negotiators on Friday.
US stocks traded around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Treasury Secretary Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. Meanwhile, traders continue to follow comments from several Fed officials: Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell nearly 4% after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded its stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks were also under pressure after the firm has been fined by European regulators.
US futures were around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell more than 4% in premarket trading after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded the company’s stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks lost nearly 1% after the firm has been fined a record €1.2 billion by European privacy regulators.
Comment:
The dollar index steadied around 103.3 on Tuesday, supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, while traders cautiously awaited updates from the debt ceiling negotiations. In the latest central bank commentary, Fed’s Bullard suggested the possibility of raising rates by another half-point this year, while Fed's Kashkari described the decision to pause or hike rates in June as a close call. Markets have scaled back bets on interest rate cuts this year, with rates seen holding at around 4.7% by December. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy signaled cautious optimism that a deal to raise the debt ceiling would be reached, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reaffirming that the US could be at risk of default by June 1.
Comment:
U.S. stock index futures are showing a positive trend on Wednesday morning, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rising by 46 points (0.14% increase), S&P 500 futuresexperiencing a slight uptick of 0.16%, and Nasdaq 100 futures seeing a gain of 0.15%.
Traders are closely monitoring the ongoing debt-ceiling negotiations. And they are eagerly awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve’s May meeting minutes for insights into future monetary policy decisions.
Fed Presidents Warn of Rate Hikes
In addition, regional Fed Presidents James Bullard and Neel Kashkari have indicated that the U.S. central bank may need to continue raising rates if inflation remains high.
Overall, the stock market is influenced by ongoing debt-ceiling negotiations, earnings reports, and the anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. The risk of a U.S. debt default and its potential consequences on economic growth and capital markets adds further uncertainty to the market environment.
Traders are closely monitoring the ongoing debt-ceiling negotiations. And they are eagerly awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve’s May meeting minutes for insights into future monetary policy decisions.
Fed Presidents Warn of Rate Hikes
In addition, regional Fed Presidents James Bullard and Neel Kashkari have indicated that the U.S. central bank may need to continue raising rates if inflation remains high.
Overall, the stock market is influenced by ongoing debt-ceiling negotiations, earnings reports, and the anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. The risk of a U.S. debt default and its potential consequences on economic growth and capital markets adds further uncertainty to the market environment.
Comment:
The dollar has been trading a little firmer despite the impasse in US debt-ceiling negotiations. Bulls seem to be drawing strength from hawkish Fed speakers and technical forces. Prices have turned bullish on the daily charts with support found at 103.00. The upside momentum has already taken prices towards 103.80 with 104.00 the next key level of interest.
Comment:
Selling Pressure,Weakenning of UsDollar, thats good for Euro. Strong Euro is GOOD,no VERY GOOD for SP500;NASDAQ;DOW JONES; GOLD;BITCOIN;CRYPTOS: Everything against Dollar.
Look also my NVIDIA Forecast Chart performed: Nailed it! Weak US DOllar also good for Tech Stocks, Bio Pharma and Tech have Highly positive correltions with Bitcoin and Ethereum, and vice versa. NVIDIA : Top Performer
Friday is the Big Day of the Week: aND IT WILL BE VERY BUISY. RGHT AFTER THE bELL PMI and Inflation DATA!
Look also my NVIDIA Forecast Chart performed: Nailed it! Weak US DOllar also good for Tech Stocks, Bio Pharma and Tech have Highly positive correltions with Bitcoin and Ethereum, and vice versa. NVIDIA : Top Performer
Friday is the Big Day of the Week: aND IT WILL BE VERY BUISY. RGHT AFTER THE bELL PMI and Inflation DATA!
Comment:
Market UpDATES:
NASDQ100 US100 and Indices Sky Rocketing after FED pivot reates cooling
Nasdaq breaking 14055 easily as forecasted in my analysis : Next Target 14350
NVIDAI Sky ROCKETING(Watch als my other Forecasts USD/US100/USDJPY/GOLD/EURO- Related Markets)
Godl Found More Buyers on support.More Bullish Delat coming in nEXT TO 2000USD)
Medium-term price action on the daily chart exhibits scope to extend losses. The longer-term ascending channel is interesting (drawn from $1,641 and $1,959). Note that price action FAILED to touch gloves with the upper boundary in recent trading, pencilling in highs just ahead of the all-time high of $2,075.
Investment Sentiment rising higher from Lows:More Bulls
The Key Fed Inflation Rate Is Cooling At Pivotal Time For The S&P 500
EURO/USD Taking Profits +More Bulls Accumulation and Buying Pressure /Support 1,4075
NASDQ100 US100 and Indices Sky Rocketing after FED pivot reates cooling
Nasdaq breaking 14055 easily as forecasted in my analysis : Next Target 14350
NVIDAI Sky ROCKETING(Watch als my other Forecasts USD/US100/USDJPY/GOLD/EURO- Related Markets)
Godl Found More Buyers on support.More Bullish Delat coming in nEXT TO 2000USD)
Medium-term price action on the daily chart exhibits scope to extend losses. The longer-term ascending channel is interesting (drawn from $1,641 and $1,959). Note that price action FAILED to touch gloves with the upper boundary in recent trading, pencilling in highs just ahead of the all-time high of $2,075.
Investment Sentiment rising higher from Lows:More Bulls
The Key Fed Inflation Rate Is Cooling At Pivotal Time For The S&P 500
EURO/USD Taking Profits +More Bulls Accumulation and Buying Pressure /Support 1,4075
Comment:
opened above Monthly open.Trend bullish
Comment:
Markets steady ahead of final push on the debt deal
After long weekends in many parts of the world, FX markets are returning to some progress on the US debt ceiling. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have reached a two-year deal. That deal will be assessed by the House Rules Committee today and, if approved, will likely go to a vote in the House tomorrow. Both Democrat and Republican leaders feel they have the votes to get the deal through Congress – although at times like these, there may be a few holdout politicians who like their day in the sun.
After long weekends in many parts of the world, FX markets are returning to some progress on the US debt ceiling. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have reached a two-year deal. That deal will be assessed by the House Rules Committee today and, if approved, will likely go to a vote in the House tomorrow. Both Democrat and Republican leaders feel they have the votes to get the deal through Congress – although at times like these, there may be a few holdout politicians who like their day in the sun.
Comment:
Biden and House Speaker McCarthy reached an agreement on Saturday and the House vote is expected to take place on Wednesday. However, several Republicans have stated that they will not vote in favor of it. Most Ai stocks were still up after Nvidia rose as much as 4% earlier in the session, briefly hitting a $1 trillion market cap. Tesla also held gains after Elon Musk told Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang that he was willing to expand business in the country. On the other hand, energy stocks were among the worst performers dragged down by a 4% decline in oil prices.
Comment:
The Fed meets next week and expectations of another rate increase are rising, particularly given the growing hopes the U.S. economy is headed for a 'soft landing' after Congress's approval last week of a debt ceiling deal that averts U.S. default.
The Fed enters its traditional blackout period this week, but there is more data to digest, including the ISM services PMI later Monday, which is expected to point to a still solid rate of expansion.
The Fed enters its traditional blackout period this week, but there is more data to digest, including the ISM services PMI later Monday, which is expected to point to a still solid rate of expansion.
Comment:
ADA, MATIC, SOL face the music as Robinhood delists tokens
Hours after Robinhood delisted ADA, MATIC, and SOL, the price action of the tokens was not what participants would have hoped for.
Ethereum continues to dominate the crypto sector, with increased TVL and notable growth on DEXs. NFT sector however, does not witness the same level of progress.
Should Shiba Inu traders be worried as Shibarium launch date remains uncertain
Solana prices dive 42% within a week, will there be a quick recovery
Solana nears an important resistance
Bitcoin’s Implied Volatility declined rapidly indicating the anticipation of low fluctuations of price from the options market.
Hours after Robinhood delisted ADA, MATIC, and SOL, the price action of the tokens was not what participants would have hoped for.
Ethereum continues to dominate the crypto sector, with increased TVL and notable growth on DEXs. NFT sector however, does not witness the same level of progress.
Should Shiba Inu traders be worried as Shibarium launch date remains uncertain
Solana nears an important resistance
Bitcoin’s Implied Volatility declined rapidly indicating the anticipation of low fluctuations of price from the options market.
Comment:
US Dollar Index: DXY fades recovery below 104.00 on downbeat Fed bets, US inflation eyed
US Dollar Index struggles to extend the previous day’s corrective bounce off three-week low, snaps two-day winning streak.
Markets remain nearly sure of witnessing no rate hike from Fed in June but concerns about July stay dicey.
Bond market moves, challenges to sentiment prod DXY bears ahead of the key US CPI.
Core CPI will be closely observed as high inflation can allow FOMC to remain hawkish despite no rate hike decision.
US Dollar Index (DXY) remains pressured around 103.60 as it fades the previous two-day winning streak on Tuesday as the key US inflation data looms. That said, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies rose in the last two consecutive days amid the market’s positioning for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) pause to the rate hike trajectory. However, the recently mixed concerns about the US central bank’s future moves join the challenges to the sentiment to prod the DXY buyers ahead of an important data point for the markets.
It’s worth noting that a study from the San Francisco Fed about the correlation between wage growth and inflation could be cited as the reason for the US central bank to remain less hawkish, which in turn weighs on the DXY, apart from the pre-data anxiety. The survey concluded that wage growth has a very small impact on inflation, which in turn raises doubts about the central bankers’ emphasis on wage cost numbers as a source of information to gauge inflation pressure.
Talking about the latest challenges to sentiment, a trade dispute is developing after the US expands its ban on imports from Xinjiang. China vows to protect China firms against any US sanctions, per Reuters. Recently, Bloomberg released prepared remarks of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s scheduled Testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee as she said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) serve as important counterweights to nontransparent, unsustainable lending from others, like China.
Additionally, the increase in the bets favoring the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 0.25% rate hike in July also prod optimism and put a floor under the US Dollar Index. It should be noted that the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests nearly limited scope for the US central bank to act on Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Looking ahead, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for May will be in the spotlight as the Fed decision looms on Wednesday. That said, the market forecasts of witnessing no change in the Core CPI MoM figure of 0.4% gain major attention as softer figures could push back the July rate hike concerns and may not allow the Fed to sound hawkish, which in turn can drown the US Dollar.
US Dollar Index struggles to extend the previous day’s corrective bounce off three-week low, snaps two-day winning streak.
Markets remain nearly sure of witnessing no rate hike from Fed in June but concerns about July stay dicey.
Bond market moves, challenges to sentiment prod DXY bears ahead of the key US CPI.
Core CPI will be closely observed as high inflation can allow FOMC to remain hawkish despite no rate hike decision.
US Dollar Index (DXY) remains pressured around 103.60 as it fades the previous two-day winning streak on Tuesday as the key US inflation data looms. That said, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies rose in the last two consecutive days amid the market’s positioning for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) pause to the rate hike trajectory. However, the recently mixed concerns about the US central bank’s future moves join the challenges to the sentiment to prod the DXY buyers ahead of an important data point for the markets.
It’s worth noting that a study from the San Francisco Fed about the correlation between wage growth and inflation could be cited as the reason for the US central bank to remain less hawkish, which in turn weighs on the DXY, apart from the pre-data anxiety. The survey concluded that wage growth has a very small impact on inflation, which in turn raises doubts about the central bankers’ emphasis on wage cost numbers as a source of information to gauge inflation pressure.
Talking about the latest challenges to sentiment, a trade dispute is developing after the US expands its ban on imports from Xinjiang. China vows to protect China firms against any US sanctions, per Reuters. Recently, Bloomberg released prepared remarks of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s scheduled Testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee as she said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) serve as important counterweights to nontransparent, unsustainable lending from others, like China.
Additionally, the increase in the bets favoring the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 0.25% rate hike in July also prod optimism and put a floor under the US Dollar Index. It should be noted that the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests nearly limited scope for the US central bank to act on Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Looking ahead, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for May will be in the spotlight as the Fed decision looms on Wednesday. That said, the market forecasts of witnessing no change in the Core CPI MoM figure of 0.4% gain major attention as softer figures could push back the July rate hike concerns and may not allow the Fed to sound hawkish, which in turn can drown the US Dollar.
Comment:
US Dollar Index: DXY licks US inflation-inflicted wounds at three-week low above 103.00 on Fed day
US Dollar Index grinds near the lowest levels in three weeks after snapping two-day winning streak.
US inflation data bolsters market’s bets on Fed’s status quo and weigh on the DXY despite upbeat yields.
Cautious mood ahead of the FOMC announcements put a floor under the US Dollar price.
Expectations of witnessing a hawkish halt from US central bank highlight qualitative updates from the Fed.
US Dollar Index (DXY) steadies above 103.00, after bouncing off a three-week low, as markets brace for the Federal Reserve (Fed) announcements on Wednesday. The greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies slumped the most in a week, to the lowest levels since May 22, after the US inflation data fuelled speculations of the US central bank’s halt to the rate hike trajectory present in the last 10 monetary policy meetings.
As per the latest US inflation data for May, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) drops more-than-expected and prior releases to 0.1% MoM and 4.0% YoY. However, the Core CPI, known as the CPI ex Food & Energy, matches 0.4% monthly and 5.3% yearly forecasts. It’s worth noting that the US headline CPI dropped to the lowest since March 2021 and hence justifies the market’s expectations of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish halt, which in turn should have weighed on the US Dollar.
Following the data, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests more than a 90% chance of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) no rate hike during today’s monetary policy meeting, versus around 75% chance before that.
It’s worth noting, however, that the ex-Fed Officials have been pushing for a hawkish halt to the rate hikes and prods the DXY bears. On Tuesday, Former Dallas Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) President Robert Kaplan said that he would support a "hawkish pause" at this week's meeting while also adding that he would “leave the question of a July hike open.” Previously, Ex-Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren tweeted, “Expect a hawkish skip this week.”
As a result, Wall Street benchmarks rose for the second consecutive day but the US Treasury bond yields remain firmer. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to a 13-day high of 3.83% whereas the two-year counterpart poked the highest levels in three months with 4.70% mark before easing to 4.67% in the last hours.
Looking ahead, the pre-Fed sentiment may prod the DXY, as well as allow the greenback’s gauge to pare recent losses. However, the traders will pay attention to the US central bank’s economic forecasts, dot-plot and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference for clear directions afterward, as the rate hike pause is almost given.
US Dollar Index grinds near the lowest levels in three weeks after snapping two-day winning streak.
US inflation data bolsters market’s bets on Fed’s status quo and weigh on the DXY despite upbeat yields.
Cautious mood ahead of the FOMC announcements put a floor under the US Dollar price.
Expectations of witnessing a hawkish halt from US central bank highlight qualitative updates from the Fed.
US Dollar Index (DXY) steadies above 103.00, after bouncing off a three-week low, as markets brace for the Federal Reserve (Fed) announcements on Wednesday. The greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies slumped the most in a week, to the lowest levels since May 22, after the US inflation data fuelled speculations of the US central bank’s halt to the rate hike trajectory present in the last 10 monetary policy meetings.
As per the latest US inflation data for May, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) drops more-than-expected and prior releases to 0.1% MoM and 4.0% YoY. However, the Core CPI, known as the CPI ex Food & Energy, matches 0.4% monthly and 5.3% yearly forecasts. It’s worth noting that the US headline CPI dropped to the lowest since March 2021 and hence justifies the market’s expectations of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish halt, which in turn should have weighed on the US Dollar.
Following the data, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests more than a 90% chance of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) no rate hike during today’s monetary policy meeting, versus around 75% chance before that.
It’s worth noting, however, that the ex-Fed Officials have been pushing for a hawkish halt to the rate hikes and prods the DXY bears. On Tuesday, Former Dallas Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) President Robert Kaplan said that he would support a "hawkish pause" at this week's meeting while also adding that he would “leave the question of a July hike open.” Previously, Ex-Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren tweeted, “Expect a hawkish skip this week.”
As a result, Wall Street benchmarks rose for the second consecutive day but the US Treasury bond yields remain firmer. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to a 13-day high of 3.83% whereas the two-year counterpart poked the highest levels in three months with 4.70% mark before easing to 4.67% in the last hours.
Looking ahead, the pre-Fed sentiment may prod the DXY, as well as allow the greenback’s gauge to pare recent losses. However, the traders will pay attention to the US central bank’s economic forecasts, dot-plot and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference for clear directions afterward, as the rate hike pause is almost given.
Comment:
European equity markets were set for a positive open on Friday, tracking global peers higher amid bets that US interest rates could be nearing their peak as the American economy loses momentum and after the Federal Reserve paused its tightening campaign in June. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank opted to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points, with ECB President Christine Lagarde saying ‘we are not thinking about pausing.” Investors now look ahead to final euro zone inflation figures and wage growth data for further clues on the economy and future monetary policy. DAX futures jumped 0.9%, Stoxx 600 futures gained 0.5% and FTSE 100 futures edged up 0.2% in premarket trade.
Comment:
The Dow finished more than 100 points below the flatline on Friday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost nearly 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, as investors continued to assess the outlook of monetary policy for the Fed amid a massive options expiration at the second 2023’s quadruple witching date. Among stocks, Microsoft fell 1.7% and Micron Technology dropped 1.7%. Conversely, Virgin Galactic surged 16.3% on plans for commercial space tourism. Tesla added 1.8% after hitting a 37-week high during the session and Adobe gained 0.8% with positive earnings and guidance. On the week, the Dow Jones added 0.9%, marking a three-week winning streak despite the Fed's warning of future rate hikes. The S&P 500 gained 2.2%, its fifth consecutive weekly gain, the longest since November 2021, rising 2.2%. The Nasdaq was up 2.7% for an eighth straight positive week. Markets will be closed on Monday for the Juneteenth holiday.
Comment:
BTC Bears Target Sub-$26,000 on SEC v Binance and Ripple Battles
BTC was flat this morning, with regulatory uncertainty stemming from the SEC lawsuits against Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase testing buyer appetite.
The market structure and momentum of Bitcoin was bearish, but its bounce back above $26k gave bears some food for thought.
Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 turned negative over May. This meant that the index has an overall bullish outlook, but Bitcoin has trended in the opposite direction in recent weeks. The increasing hostility from regulatory bodies in the United States has played a part in BTC’s misfortunes on the price chart.
There was an argument to be made that Bitcoin showed some signs of recovery. Yet, an analysis of the price action showed that the bias remained in favor of the sellers. On the other hand, if Bitcoin climbs to $28k, it could signal an uptrend.
Can the bulls drive Bitcoin past $27.4k next?
The market structure of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe was bearish. The structure shifted on 21 April when BTC dipped below a recent higher low. Since then, the price has trended lower on the chart.
Moreover, the trading volume has been extremely low from April onward, compared to the volume seen in February and March. This was reflected on the OBV as well, which only went slightly lower in May in contrast to the rapid gains it posted in mid-March.
The Fibonacci levels based on the recent leg down show that Bitcoin was likely headed toward $24.8k. The 61.8% extension level at $23.3k was also a target it presented. The price action showed that the $24.2k-$24.4k region could serve as strong support. Beneath that, the $22.4k and $21.5k levels were important.
To signal a bullish shift in the structure, Bitcoin prices must rise back above the recent lower high at $27.4k. Yet, an uptrend would not be established there, as BTC would need to form a higher low and continue higher. Cautious investors can wait for this turn of events before looking to buy.
On Saturday, BTC extended the winning streak to three sessions, gaining 0.67% to end the day at $26,535.
SEC v Binance news delivered a breakout morning session before profit-taking left BTC with modest gains.
The technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to $27,000.
On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.67%. Following a 2.92% rally on Friday, BTC ended the day at $26,535. Significantly, BTC enjoyed its first three-day winning streak since May.
A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early afternoon low of $26,202. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $25,523, BTC rose to a late morning high of $26,857. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,882, BTC eased back to sub-$26,500 and a range-bound afternoon session.
SEC v Binance News Delivered Brief Relief
On Saturday, news of Binance striking a deal to address the SEC’s motion to freeze Binance US assets supported a breakout morning.
Binance, Binance US, and the SEC agreed on a deal restricting access to customer funds to Binance US employees. The agreement prevents Binance Holdings staff from having access to private keys for US wallets.
The SEC filed a motion to freeze the assets of Binance US shortly after filing charges against Binance, Binance US, and Binance CEO CZ.
On Saturday, the US Court signed off on the deal, which allows Binance to repatriate all US customer funds and private keys onshore to nullify the motion to freeze.
While the news was positive, Binance US and Binance face charges that could drag on and further impact the US digital asset space.
Uncertainty toward the SEC v Ripple case remains another headwind, with optimism of a Ripple win fading after the release of the Hinman speech-related docs.
The Day Ahead
It is a quiet Sunday session, with no US economic indicators to provide direction. The lack of external market forces will leave BTC in the hands of the crypto market news wires.
SEC activity remains the focal point, with SEC v Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase (COIN)-related news likely to move the dial.
We also expect market sensitivity to lawmaker chatter. US lawmakers have remained silent on the William Hinman speech-related documents and the SEC charges against Binance and Coinbase.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
This morning, BTC was down 0.05% to $26,523. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $26,551 before falling to a low of $26,410.
BTC Technical Indicators
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 100-day EMA ($26,269). The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.
A move through the 200-day EMA ($26,654) would support a breakout from R1 ($26,861) to target R2 ($27,186). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($26,269) and S1 ($26,206) would bring the 50-day EMA ($26,059) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.
Resistance & Support Levels
R1 – $ 26,861 S1 – $ 26,206
R2 – $ 27,186 S2 – $ 25,876
R3 – $ 27,841 S3 – $ 25,221
BTC needs to move through the $26,531 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,861 and $27,500. A move through the Saturday high of $26,857 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.
In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,186 and resistance at $27,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $27,841.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,206 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $25,876. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,221.
BTC was flat this morning, with regulatory uncertainty stemming from the SEC lawsuits against Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase testing buyer appetite.
The market structure and momentum of Bitcoin was bearish, but its bounce back above $26k gave bears some food for thought.
Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 turned negative over May. This meant that the index has an overall bullish outlook, but Bitcoin has trended in the opposite direction in recent weeks. The increasing hostility from regulatory bodies in the United States has played a part in BTC’s misfortunes on the price chart.
There was an argument to be made that Bitcoin showed some signs of recovery. Yet, an analysis of the price action showed that the bias remained in favor of the sellers. On the other hand, if Bitcoin climbs to $28k, it could signal an uptrend.
Can the bulls drive Bitcoin past $27.4k next?
The market structure of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe was bearish. The structure shifted on 21 April when BTC dipped below a recent higher low. Since then, the price has trended lower on the chart.
Moreover, the trading volume has been extremely low from April onward, compared to the volume seen in February and March. This was reflected on the OBV as well, which only went slightly lower in May in contrast to the rapid gains it posted in mid-March.
The Fibonacci levels based on the recent leg down show that Bitcoin was likely headed toward $24.8k. The 61.8% extension level at $23.3k was also a target it presented. The price action showed that the $24.2k-$24.4k region could serve as strong support. Beneath that, the $22.4k and $21.5k levels were important.
To signal a bullish shift in the structure, Bitcoin prices must rise back above the recent lower high at $27.4k. Yet, an uptrend would not be established there, as BTC would need to form a higher low and continue higher. Cautious investors can wait for this turn of events before looking to buy.
On Saturday, BTC extended the winning streak to three sessions, gaining 0.67% to end the day at $26,535.
SEC v Binance news delivered a breakout morning session before profit-taking left BTC with modest gains.
The technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to $27,000.
On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.67%. Following a 2.92% rally on Friday, BTC ended the day at $26,535. Significantly, BTC enjoyed its first three-day winning streak since May.
A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early afternoon low of $26,202. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $25,523, BTC rose to a late morning high of $26,857. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,882, BTC eased back to sub-$26,500 and a range-bound afternoon session.
SEC v Binance News Delivered Brief Relief
On Saturday, news of Binance striking a deal to address the SEC’s motion to freeze Binance US assets supported a breakout morning.
Binance, Binance US, and the SEC agreed on a deal restricting access to customer funds to Binance US employees. The agreement prevents Binance Holdings staff from having access to private keys for US wallets.
The SEC filed a motion to freeze the assets of Binance US shortly after filing charges against Binance, Binance US, and Binance CEO CZ.
On Saturday, the US Court signed off on the deal, which allows Binance to repatriate all US customer funds and private keys onshore to nullify the motion to freeze.
While the news was positive, Binance US and Binance face charges that could drag on and further impact the US digital asset space.
Uncertainty toward the SEC v Ripple case remains another headwind, with optimism of a Ripple win fading after the release of the Hinman speech-related docs.
The Day Ahead
It is a quiet Sunday session, with no US economic indicators to provide direction. The lack of external market forces will leave BTC in the hands of the crypto market news wires.
SEC activity remains the focal point, with SEC v Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase (COIN)-related news likely to move the dial.
We also expect market sensitivity to lawmaker chatter. US lawmakers have remained silent on the William Hinman speech-related documents and the SEC charges against Binance and Coinbase.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
This morning, BTC was down 0.05% to $26,523. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $26,551 before falling to a low of $26,410.
BTC Technical Indicators
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 100-day EMA ($26,269). The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.
A move through the 200-day EMA ($26,654) would support a breakout from R1 ($26,861) to target R2 ($27,186). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($26,269) and S1 ($26,206) would bring the 50-day EMA ($26,059) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.
Resistance & Support Levels
R1 – $ 26,861 S1 – $ 26,206
R2 – $ 27,186 S2 – $ 25,876
R3 – $ 27,841 S3 – $ 25,221
BTC needs to move through the $26,531 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,861 and $27,500. A move through the Saturday high of $26,857 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.
In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,186 and resistance at $27,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $27,841.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,206 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $25,876. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,221.
Comment:
Gold long going to above 2050
LONG
Gold Price Analysis: Testing Support Levels Amidst Consolidation and Breakout Attempts
Technical analysis reveals a retracement in gold, testing key support zones and indicating a healthy consolidation phase before an expected continuation of the uptrend.
Gold, FX Empire
Gold Forecast Video for 19.06.23 by Bruce Powers
Gold rises to a three-day high of 1,986 on Friday before pulling back. It attempted to breakout above the top boundary trendline of a small symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern but is now on track to close below it and within the consolidation range.
Attempting to Break Up yet Remains in Consolidation Range
So far, Thursday’s test of the 100-Day EMA with a day’s low of 1,925 has held up but further signs of strength are needed. Gold briefly dropped below the 100-Day line earlier in the session on Thursday but managed to close strong, back above it and near the high of the day. The 100-Day EMA is now at 1,940.
Further Signs of Strength are Needed
Further signs of strength are needed to indicate whether yesterday’s low completes the retracement or further tests will occur. This week’s candlestick pattern is set to close as a bullish doji hammer. Next week an upside breakout signal will occur on a move above the high at 1,971, and the breakout is confirmed on a daily close above that high. Following a move above that high the next weekly resistance levels are 1,973, 1,983, and 1,985. A subsequent daily close above each price level will confirm strength, otherwise some resistance might be seen again around those levels.
If Lows Tested Again
If lower prices occur before a continuation higher the two potential support zones are around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1,912, followed by the 200-Day EMA at 1,894. The 200-Day EMA was tested as support with a double bottom in the first quarter of this year price reversed higher from there.
Uptrend Intact
The current retracement in gold is a test of support around previous high swing high of 1,960 from early-February. So far, the retracement is normal and healthy for the uptrend. Consolidation has been occurring at the 50% retracement area as well as the 100-Day EMA. Notice that there is a greater distance between the 100-Day EMA and 200-Day than what was seen in February. It reflects an improving trend. Once this retracement is complete, all signs are that gold should continue higher.
Gold held above $1,950 an ounce on Friday after gaining 0.7% in the previous session, benefiting mainly from the dollar’s weakness as the Federal Reserve paused its tightening campaign at a time other major central banks are still raising interest rates. Still, the metal remains close to three-month lows as the Fed hinted at two more quarter-point rate increases this year, while the European Central Bank delivered another 25 basis point rate hike on Thursday and signaled further tightening. The Bank of England is also set to raise rates again at its June policy meeting, a month marked by surprise rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China lowered key short-term interest rates this week for the first time in ten months, while the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy on Friday.
Daily bullish
4H Bullish
34min Bullish
Gold is mostly traded on the OTC London market, the US futures market (COMEX) and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). The standard future contract is 100 troy ounces. Gold is an attractive investment during periods of political and economic uncertainty. Half of the gold consumption in the world is in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry. The biggest producers of gold are China, Australia, United States, South Africa, Russia, Peru and Indonesia. The biggest consumers of gold jewelry are India, China, United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia and UAE. The gold prices displayed in Trading Economics are based on over-the-counter (OTC) and contract for difference (CFD) financial instruments. Our gold prices are intended to provide you with a reference only, rather than as a basis for making trading decisions. Trading Economics does not verify any data and disclaims any obligation to do so.
LONG
Gold Price Analysis: Testing Support Levels Amidst Consolidation and Breakout Attempts
Technical analysis reveals a retracement in gold, testing key support zones and indicating a healthy consolidation phase before an expected continuation of the uptrend.
Gold, FX Empire
Gold Forecast Video for 19.06.23 by Bruce Powers
Gold rises to a three-day high of 1,986 on Friday before pulling back. It attempted to breakout above the top boundary trendline of a small symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern but is now on track to close below it and within the consolidation range.
Attempting to Break Up yet Remains in Consolidation Range
So far, Thursday’s test of the 100-Day EMA with a day’s low of 1,925 has held up but further signs of strength are needed. Gold briefly dropped below the 100-Day line earlier in the session on Thursday but managed to close strong, back above it and near the high of the day. The 100-Day EMA is now at 1,940.
Further Signs of Strength are Needed
Further signs of strength are needed to indicate whether yesterday’s low completes the retracement or further tests will occur. This week’s candlestick pattern is set to close as a bullish doji hammer. Next week an upside breakout signal will occur on a move above the high at 1,971, and the breakout is confirmed on a daily close above that high. Following a move above that high the next weekly resistance levels are 1,973, 1,983, and 1,985. A subsequent daily close above each price level will confirm strength, otherwise some resistance might be seen again around those levels.
If Lows Tested Again
If lower prices occur before a continuation higher the two potential support zones are around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1,912, followed by the 200-Day EMA at 1,894. The 200-Day EMA was tested as support with a double bottom in the first quarter of this year price reversed higher from there.
Uptrend Intact
The current retracement in gold is a test of support around previous high swing high of 1,960 from early-February. So far, the retracement is normal and healthy for the uptrend. Consolidation has been occurring at the 50% retracement area as well as the 100-Day EMA. Notice that there is a greater distance between the 100-Day EMA and 200-Day than what was seen in February. It reflects an improving trend. Once this retracement is complete, all signs are that gold should continue higher.
Gold held above $1,950 an ounce on Friday after gaining 0.7% in the previous session, benefiting mainly from the dollar’s weakness as the Federal Reserve paused its tightening campaign at a time other major central banks are still raising interest rates. Still, the metal remains close to three-month lows as the Fed hinted at two more quarter-point rate increases this year, while the European Central Bank delivered another 25 basis point rate hike on Thursday and signaled further tightening. The Bank of England is also set to raise rates again at its June policy meeting, a month marked by surprise rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China lowered key short-term interest rates this week for the first time in ten months, while the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy on Friday.
Daily bullish
4H Bullish
34min Bullish
Gold is mostly traded on the OTC London market, the US futures market (COMEX) and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). The standard future contract is 100 troy ounces. Gold is an attractive investment during periods of political and economic uncertainty. Half of the gold consumption in the world is in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry. The biggest producers of gold are China, Australia, United States, South Africa, Russia, Peru and Indonesia. The biggest consumers of gold jewelry are India, China, United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia and UAE. The gold prices displayed in Trading Economics are based on over-the-counter (OTC) and contract for difference (CFD) financial instruments. Our gold prices are intended to provide you with a reference only, rather than as a basis for making trading decisions. Trading Economics does not verify any data and disclaims any obligation to do so.
Comment:
Fed Chair. Powell reiterated at the ECB Forum on Central Banking that interest rates will rise further and that he wouldn’t take moving in consecutive meetings off the table at all, but noted that a recession in the US is not the most likely case. Nvidia was down by over 2% and Advanced Micro Devices by 1% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US government is considering new restrictions on exports of artificial intelligence chips to China. The Fed is also due to release the results of its annual stress tests to banks, and more details on Basel III Endgame and changes to bank supervision will be in the spotlight.
The Dow Jones was down over 100 points and the S&P 500 dipped by 0.1% on Wednesday afternoon, on the prospect of further interest rate hikes following the Federal Reserve's chair Powell Speech at the ECB Forum. He said he does not see inflation reaching the Fed's 2% target any time soon. He reiterated that interest rates will rise further and did not rule out a boost in the cost of borrowing at the next policy meeting scheduled for the end of July. Meantime, the Nasdaq was up 0.2% powered by megacap momentum stocks. Among stocks, shares of Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices were down by 2% and 1%, respectively, after the US government is considering new restrictions on exports of AI chips to China. Intel, Applied Materials and Qualcomm fell more than 2% each. On the other hand, Apple hit an all-time high of $189.8 during the session, while shares of Tesla and Alphabet advanced 1.4% and 2.5%. The Fed is due to release the results of its annual stress tests to banks.
The Dow Jones was down over 100 points and the S&P 500 dipped by 0.1% on Wednesday afternoon, on the prospect of further interest rate hikes following the Federal Reserve's chair Powell Speech at the ECB Forum. He said he does not see inflation reaching the Fed's 2% target any time soon. He reiterated that interest rates will rise further and did not rule out a boost in the cost of borrowing at the next policy meeting scheduled for the end of July. Meantime, the Nasdaq was up 0.2% powered by megacap momentum stocks. Among stocks, shares of Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices were down by 2% and 1%, respectively, after the US government is considering new restrictions on exports of AI chips to China. Intel, Applied Materials and Qualcomm fell more than 2% each. On the other hand, Apple hit an all-time high of $189.8 during the session, while shares of Tesla and Alphabet advanced 1.4% and 2.5%. The Fed is due to release the results of its annual stress tests to banks.
Comment:
The US economy grew by an annualized 2% on quarter in Q1 2023, well above 1.3% in the second estimate, and forecasts of 1.4%. The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and federal government spending. Imports were revised down.
Comment:
TREND BLLISH
PROFIT TAKINGS AND MORE ACCUMULATIONS
US Mortgage Rates Rise to 8-Month HighUnited States 30 Year Mortgage Rate
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage increased by 10 basis points from the previous week to 6.81% in the week ending July 6th, the highest November 2022 as higher interest from the Federal Reserve underpinned expensive mortgage rates for American consumers. A year ago, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 5.3%. “Mortgage rates continued their upward trajectory again this week, rising to the highest rate this year so far,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “This upward trend is being driven by a resilient economy, persistent inflation and a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. These high rates combined with low inventory continue to price many potential homebuyers out of the market.”
PROFIT TAKINGS AND MORE ACCUMULATIONS
US Mortgage Rates Rise to 8-Month HighUnited States 30 Year Mortgage Rate
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage increased by 10 basis points from the previous week to 6.81% in the week ending July 6th, the highest November 2022 as higher interest from the Federal Reserve underpinned expensive mortgage rates for American consumers. A year ago, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 5.3%. “Mortgage rates continued their upward trajectory again this week, rising to the highest rate this year so far,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “This upward trend is being driven by a resilient economy, persistent inflation and a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. These high rates combined with low inventory continue to price many potential homebuyers out of the market.”
Comment:
Wall Street Ends in the Green
The Dow Jones closed more than 209 points higher on Monday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 0.2% each, as investors awaited the US consumer and producer inflation reports later this week and braced for the start of the second quarter earnings season. The upcoming inflation report is expected to offer additional evidence regarding inflationary pressures and provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future actions. Traders are currently pricing in a nearly 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, but the odds for another quarter point hike later in the year have been swinging, currently standing at 22% for September and 33% for November. Healthcare shares were among top performers of the session including Amgen (+2.5%). Also, Inter (+2.8%), Honeywell (+2.2%) and Home Depot (2.5%) outperformed while mega cap shares dragged as Apple (-1.1%), Tesla (-1.7%), Microsoft (-1.6%), Alphabet (-2.5%) and Amazon (-2%) ended in the red.
The Dow Jones closed more than 209 points higher on Monday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 0.2% each, as investors awaited the US consumer and producer inflation reports later this week and braced for the start of the second quarter earnings season. The upcoming inflation report is expected to offer additional evidence regarding inflationary pressures and provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future actions. Traders are currently pricing in a nearly 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, but the odds for another quarter point hike later in the year have been swinging, currently standing at 22% for September and 33% for November. Healthcare shares were among top performers of the session including Amgen (+2.5%). Also, Inter (+2.8%), Honeywell (+2.2%) and Home Depot (2.5%) outperformed while mega cap shares dragged as Apple (-1.1%), Tesla (-1.7%), Microsoft (-1.6%), Alphabet (-2.5%) and Amazon (-2%) ended in the red.
Comment:
Wall Street Extends Gain Ahead of CPI Data
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.
Comment:
Wall Street Extends Gain Ahead of CPI Data
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.
Comment:
US Stocks Pop on Cooling Inflation
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.Japanese Yen attempting fifth consecutive daily advance (first time since December)
USD/JPY plunge now approaching major support confluence- risk for price inflection
Resistance 140.10s, 140.93, 142.10/50 (key)- support 137.36/91, 136.15, 134.04
The Japanese Yen has continued to coil just below uptrend resistance with major event risk on tap into the close of the week. The focus is on a breakout of the monthly opening-range for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY short-term technical charts.
Initial resistance now eyed at the 75% parallel (blue slope currently ~140.10s) backed by the objective May high at 140.93. Ultimately, a breach / close above the weekly open / 61.8% retracement of the 2022 decline at 142.10/50 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader USD/JPY uptrend.
Bottom line: The USD/JPY plunge us approaching the first major technical support hurdle just below the 138-handle. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards this key support zone – rallies should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast once we get further clarity on the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.Japanese Yen attempting fifth consecutive daily advance (first time since December)
USD/JPY plunge now approaching major support confluence- risk for price inflection
Resistance 140.10s, 140.93, 142.10/50 (key)- support 137.36/91, 136.15, 134.04
The Japanese Yen has continued to coil just below uptrend resistance with major event risk on tap into the close of the week. The focus is on a breakout of the monthly opening-range for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY short-term technical charts.
Initial resistance now eyed at the 75% parallel (blue slope currently ~140.10s) backed by the objective May high at 140.93. Ultimately, a breach / close above the weekly open / 61.8% retracement of the 2022 decline at 142.10/50 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader USD/JPY uptrend.
Bottom line: The USD/JPY plunge us approaching the first major technical support hurdle just below the 138-handle. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards this key support zone – rallies should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast once we get further clarity on the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.
Comment:
US Futures Steady Ahead of Major Bank Earnings
US stock futures held steady on Friday after four-day winning streak on Wall Street as investors look ahead to earnings reports from major banks. Futures contracts tied to the three major indexes were all trading near breakeven. In regular trading on Thursday, the Dow rose 0.14%, the S&P 500 gained 0.85% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.58%, with nine out of the 11 S&P sectors ending higher led to the upside by communication services, technology and consumer discretionary. Those gains came as the latest producer price index report showed inflation rose less than anticipated in June, adding to signs that US inflation is on a downward trend and raising hopes that the current tightening cycle is nearing the end. Investors now await earnings reports from big banks such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citi on Friday for more clues on the economy. US consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan is also on deck.
US stock futures held steady on Friday after four-day winning streak on Wall Street as investors look ahead to earnings reports from major banks. Futures contracts tied to the three major indexes were all trading near breakeven. In regular trading on Thursday, the Dow rose 0.14%, the S&P 500 gained 0.85% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.58%, with nine out of the 11 S&P sectors ending higher led to the upside by communication services, technology and consumer discretionary. Those gains came as the latest producer price index report showed inflation rose less than anticipated in June, adding to signs that US inflation is on a downward trend and raising hopes that the current tightening cycle is nearing the end. Investors now await earnings reports from big banks such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citi on Friday for more clues on the economy. US consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan is also on deck.
Comment:
Bond Yields Continue to Fall
Government bond yields around the world fell for a third day on Wednesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield retreating to 3.74%, a fresh low since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Fed will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 23%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. In the UK, another increase in borrowing costs is seen as certain next month, but a smaller-than-expected inflation reading for June lowered bets on further BOE rate hikes. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.
European Markets Head for Higher Open
European equity markets were headed for a higher open on Wednesday as investors reacted to data showing the annual consumer inflation in the UK stood at 7.9% in June, the lowest reading since March 2022 and below forecasts of 8.2%. Investors also await final euro zone inflation figures later on Wednesday to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook in the region. Moreover, markets look ahead to the latest earnings report from Dutch chip industry giant ASML, as well as from major US firms such as Tesla, Netflix and Goldman Sachs. DAX and Stoxx 600 futures rose 0.2% in premarket trade, while FTSE 100 futures jumped 0.8%.
Government bond yields around the world fell for a third day on Wednesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield retreating to 3.74%, a fresh low since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Fed will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 23%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. In the UK, another increase in borrowing costs is seen as certain next month, but a smaller-than-expected inflation reading for June lowered bets on further BOE rate hikes. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.
European Markets Head for Higher Open
European equity markets were headed for a higher open on Wednesday as investors reacted to data showing the annual consumer inflation in the UK stood at 7.9% in June, the lowest reading since March 2022 and below forecasts of 8.2%. Investors also await final euro zone inflation figures later on Wednesday to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook in the region. Moreover, markets look ahead to the latest earnings report from Dutch chip industry giant ASML, as well as from major US firms such as Tesla, Netflix and Goldman Sachs. DAX and Stoxx 600 futures rose 0.2% in premarket trade, while FTSE 100 futures jumped 0.8%.
Comment:
This trade is stil open and active
relevant market wraps
European Markets Head for Muted Open
European equity markets were headed for a muted open on Thursday as investors braced for the start of the earnings season in the region. Major European firms slated to report earnings today include SAP, EasyJet, Volvo Car, Publicis, ABB and Nokia. Investors also turned cautious after shares of key technology names in the US dropped in post-market trade on disappointing quarterly results. DAX, Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 futures all fluctuated around the flatline in premarket trade.
Gold Hits 2-Month High on Fed Pause Bets
Japan 10-Year Yield Steadies Around 0.46%
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 0.46% as a dovish outlook on Bank of Japan monetary policy kept the benchmark yield below the upper limit of the target range. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target, indicating the BOJ’s commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. Last month, the central bank held its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% by a unanimous vote, in line with expectations. Falling bond yields in other major economies also reduced upward pressure on JGB yields, as easing inflationary pressures raised hopes that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is close.
Japan Raises This Year’s Price View to 2.6% Ahead of BOJ Meet
The Japanese government raised its overall inflation forecast to 2.6% for the current fiscal year ahead of the central bank’s policy decision meeting next week, the Cabinet Office said Thursday. The upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.7% shows stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure. Japan saw that trend holding up even after accounting for government price-relief measures, which the Cabinet Office says shaves 0.5 percentage points off this year’s price reading. For fiscal 2024, the government expects overall inflation to slow to 1.9%.
relevant market wraps
European Markets Head for Muted Open
European equity markets were headed for a muted open on Thursday as investors braced for the start of the earnings season in the region. Major European firms slated to report earnings today include SAP, EasyJet, Volvo Car, Publicis, ABB and Nokia. Investors also turned cautious after shares of key technology names in the US dropped in post-market trade on disappointing quarterly results. DAX, Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 futures all fluctuated around the flatline in premarket trade.
Gold Hits 2-Month High on Fed Pause Bets
Japan 10-Year Yield Steadies Around 0.46%
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 0.46% as a dovish outlook on Bank of Japan monetary policy kept the benchmark yield below the upper limit of the target range. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target, indicating the BOJ’s commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. Last month, the central bank held its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% by a unanimous vote, in line with expectations. Falling bond yields in other major economies also reduced upward pressure on JGB yields, as easing inflationary pressures raised hopes that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is close.
Japan Raises This Year’s Price View to 2.6% Ahead of BOJ Meet
The Japanese government raised its overall inflation forecast to 2.6% for the current fiscal year ahead of the central bank’s policy decision meeting next week, the Cabinet Office said Thursday. The upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.7% shows stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure. Japan saw that trend holding up even after accounting for government price-relief measures, which the Cabinet Office says shaves 0.5 percentage points off this year’s price reading. For fiscal 2024, the government expects overall inflation to slow to 1.9%.
Comment:
trade is open
Comment:
trade is open
Comment:
trade is open.
Trade setup as on the chart above explained and mentioned is open(See the Time Frame): The Trade setup above is only based on daily,weekly,monthly and 4 Hours timeframe. For daytraders who are involved on lower time frame you need to calculate or possibly use your other strategies. The trade setup above is only created for trend followers, also daytraders can benefit of it, if they choose to.
Trade setup as on the chart above explained and mentioned is open(See the Time Frame): The Trade setup above is only based on daily,weekly,monthly and 4 Hours timeframe. For daytraders who are involved on lower time frame you need to calculate or possibly use your other strategies. The trade setup above is only created for trend followers, also daytraders can benefit of it, if they choose to.
Comment:
Dow Rises for 11th Session
The Dow Jones added nearly 100 points to book an 11th straight session of gains on Monday, with Chevron among the top performers (1.8%) after reporting better-than-expected earnings. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was up about 0.3%, led by a nearly 1.5% gain for the energy sector, namely shares of Halliburton (2.5%), as oil prices touched a three-month high. On the other hand, the Nasdaq failed to hold early gains and was down about 0.2%, with Amazon (-1.2%) and Tesla (-0.7%) weighing. Investors brace for the Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with another 25bps increase in the fed funds rate already priced in, although traders will be looking for any clues on whether the Fed will stop the tightening cycle or believes further increases are still necessary. Meanwhile, the earnings season continues with about 40% of the Dow and 30% of the S&P 500 giving their financial updates during the week, including Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, GE, 3M, General Motors, Boeing and Amazon.
US Private Sector Growth Slows to 5-Month Low
The S&P Global US Composite PMI declined to 52.0 in July 2023, down from 53.2 the previous month, as shown in a preliminary estimate. The latest reading indicated the softest pace of expansion in private sector business activity since February, with service activity growth easing to a five-month low, and manufacturing output levels remaining relatively unchanged. Total new orders rose the least since April, amid reports of constraints on client spending, including higher interest rates, while the rate of job creation was only marginal, marking the weakest level since January. On the price front, input prices increased the least since October 2020, while the rate of output charge inflation picked up as firms sought to pass through higher costs and increased interest rate payments to customers. Finally, business confidence dipped to the lowest level so far this year.
The Dow Jones added nearly 100 points to book an 11th straight session of gains on Monday, with Chevron among the top performers (1.8%) after reporting better-than-expected earnings. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was up about 0.3%, led by a nearly 1.5% gain for the energy sector, namely shares of Halliburton (2.5%), as oil prices touched a three-month high. On the other hand, the Nasdaq failed to hold early gains and was down about 0.2%, with Amazon (-1.2%) and Tesla (-0.7%) weighing. Investors brace for the Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with another 25bps increase in the fed funds rate already priced in, although traders will be looking for any clues on whether the Fed will stop the tightening cycle or believes further increases are still necessary. Meanwhile, the earnings season continues with about 40% of the Dow and 30% of the S&P 500 giving their financial updates during the week, including Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, GE, 3M, General Motors, Boeing and Amazon.
US Private Sector Growth Slows to 5-Month Low
The S&P Global US Composite PMI declined to 52.0 in July 2023, down from 53.2 the previous month, as shown in a preliminary estimate. The latest reading indicated the softest pace of expansion in private sector business activity since February, with service activity growth easing to a five-month low, and manufacturing output levels remaining relatively unchanged. Total new orders rose the least since April, amid reports of constraints on client spending, including higher interest rates, while the rate of job creation was only marginal, marking the weakest level since January. On the price front, input prices increased the least since October 2020, while the rate of output charge inflation picked up as firms sought to pass through higher costs and increased interest rate payments to customers. Finally, business confidence dipped to the lowest level so far this year.
Comment:
masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..
long dow jones long rty long indices and stocks
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..
long dow jones long rty long indices and stocks
Comment:
Trade open
Long
VIX DOWN DXY DOWN
The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2
US Futures Extend Gains after Upbeat GDP Growth
US stock futures extended gains on Thursday, with contracts on the Dow Jones jumping about 170 points, S&P 500 gaining 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.6% as investors cheered fresh data and corporate earnings results. The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2, surpassing market expectations of 1.8% expansion in a sign the US economy remains resilient despite high-interest rates. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms surged about 10% in premarket trading after reporting strong earnings and profit and a better-than-expected forecast for the current period. Comcast jumped over 2.5% after earnings and revenue came higher than anticipated and McDonald's was up about 1.3% after sales topped forecasts. Mastercard was also in the green (0.6%) after delivering strong revenue and earnings growth. Intel, Ford and T-Mobile are due to report today after the closing bell.
US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 5-Month Low
US GDP Grows at a Stronger 2.4%
Long
VIX DOWN DXY DOWN
The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2
US Futures Extend Gains after Upbeat GDP Growth
US stock futures extended gains on Thursday, with contracts on the Dow Jones jumping about 170 points, S&P 500 gaining 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.6% as investors cheered fresh data and corporate earnings results. The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2, surpassing market expectations of 1.8% expansion in a sign the US economy remains resilient despite high-interest rates. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms surged about 10% in premarket trading after reporting strong earnings and profit and a better-than-expected forecast for the current period. Comcast jumped over 2.5% after earnings and revenue came higher than anticipated and McDonald's was up about 1.3% after sales topped forecasts. Mastercard was also in the green (0.6%) after delivering strong revenue and earnings growth. Intel, Ford and T-Mobile are due to report today after the closing bell.
US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 5-Month Low
US GDP Grows at a Stronger 2.4%
Comment:
US Stocks on Track to End July More than 3% Higher
Comment:
Trade open, Inside Day, Correction
Trend Bullish
I am still long and use oppurtunities to increase more longs
Trade with the Trend.
Trend Bullish
I am still long and use oppurtunities to increase more longs
Trade with the Trend.
Comment:
market waitig for ISM 52.7 .now bullish signal. perfect
Comment:
New Buy Signal
US Credit Card Markets Head Back to Normal after Pandemic Pause
US Credit Card Markets Head Back to Normal after Pandemic Pause
Comment:
Nasdaq SP500 Dow Reversal
Trend up US 10-Year Treasury Auction Sees Decent Demand Despite Yield Under 4%
DCY down
Oil UP
Nasdaq Bullish
Dow Bullish
RTY Bullish
SP500 Bullish
Wait for CPI today. Possible Correction(I hope so that the makrket goes down first to 15000-14500) That is exactly the Gap Fill ,before Nasdaq Flies to 15850 and 16250 2nd Gap FILL)...So ge ready ,wait and watch closely the supports and resistances,better with Divergenes. In the chats and social media a lot of amateur traders are nervouse, becuz no trading experiences.So stop listening to them...Chats will cost you money. Instead relax,wait,have patience till we get the buy zones. Read comments above. I mentioned already Picadelli Points.
Trend up US 10-Year Treasury Auction Sees Decent Demand Despite Yield Under 4%
DCY down
Oil UP
Nasdaq Bullish
Dow Bullish
RTY Bullish
SP500 Bullish
Wait for CPI today. Possible Correction(I hope so that the makrket goes down first to 15000-14500) That is exactly the Gap Fill ,before Nasdaq Flies to 15850 and 16250 2nd Gap FILL)...So ge ready ,wait and watch closely the supports and resistances,better with Divergenes. In the chats and social media a lot of amateur traders are nervouse, becuz no trading experiences.So stop listening to them...Chats will cost you money. Instead relax,wait,have patience till we get the buy zones. Read comments above. I mentioned already Picadelli Points.
Comment:
Trend bullish
cpi less than expected
pmi moderate expected
FED rates unchanged
DOUBLE BOTTOM
Stocha bullish again
delta bullish
Vuy at 1505-15250 zone
GAP filled
Bullish gap next to fill: 15850-19050
I bought massively at 15090 more nasdaqs
The same bias is relevant for RTY DO JONES and indices
cpi less than expected
pmi moderate expected
FED rates unchanged
DOUBLE BOTTOM
Stocha bullish again
delta bullish
Vuy at 1505-15250 zone
GAP filled
Bullish gap next to fill: 15850-19050
I bought massively at 15090 more nasdaqs
The same bias is relevant for RTY DO JONES and indices
Comment:
Perfect!Gap filling i over. The bear tap wants you to jump into short selling before it rises higher..Avoide bear traps. I baought today more nasdaq at 1477514995 again. The market will go higher . Next week FOMC. Meeting. Fundamentals are bullish.Infalition going don.
Next week, investors will eagerly follow the FOMC minutes release for additional insights into the Fed's plans for the remainder of the year. In the US, retail sales and industrial production will also be in the spotlight. Elsewhere, the upcoming week is poised to bring a flurry of significant economic releases, including China industrial production and retail sales; GDP and inflation for the Eurozone; Japan GDP growth and inflation; Germany economic sentiment; wholesale and consumer prices for India; inflation, unemployment and retail sales for the UK; Canada CPI; Australia unemployment data; and interest rate decisions from Norway, the Philippines and New Zealand.
Michigan Consumer Confidence Falls In August, But Beats Expectations: Declining Inflation, Resilient Job Market Key Factors
Next week, investors will eagerly follow the FOMC minutes release for additional insights into the Fed's plans for the remainder of the year. In the US, retail sales and industrial production will also be in the spotlight. Elsewhere, the upcoming week is poised to bring a flurry of significant economic releases, including China industrial production and retail sales; GDP and inflation for the Eurozone; Japan GDP growth and inflation; Germany economic sentiment; wholesale and consumer prices for India; inflation, unemployment and retail sales for the UK; Canada CPI; Australia unemployment data; and interest rate decisions from Norway, the Philippines and New Zealand.
Michigan Consumer Confidence Falls In August, But Beats Expectations: Declining Inflation, Resilient Job Market Key Factors
Comment:
Bitcoin’s Correlation With S&P 500, Nasdaq Hits Highest Level Since July 2020
The correlation between Bitcoin and two major equity indices, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, surged to an 18-month high, according to new research.
Historically, Bitcoin has maintained a relatively low correlation to traditional asset classes, including equity indices and commodities like gold.
However, in recent weeks, the leading cryptocurrency's correlation to two major indices—the S&P 500 and Nasdaq—has been on the rise.
However, there are a few factors that can help explain why Bitcoin's correlation might have been positive with these markets during certain periods:
Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite: Bitcoin, as a relatively new and highly volatile asset, can be influenced by similar market sentiment and risk appetite as traditional markets. When investors are optimistic about the economy and financial markets, they may be more willing to invest in riskier assets like Bitcoin, leading to a positive correlation.
Institutional Involvement: The increasing involvement of institutional investors in both traditional markets and the cryptocurrency space can lead to correlated price movements. If large institutional players start allocating funds to both stocks and Bitcoin, it can create a positive correlation as these players rebalance their portfolios.
Global Economic Factors: Major global economic events, such as monetary policy decisions by central banks, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators, can impact both traditional markets and Bitcoin. When these events affect the broader economy, they may impact both stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Liquidity and Speculation: During times of high liquidity in the markets, where investors are looking for speculative opportunities, Bitcoin can become part of that speculation. When liquidity is ample, correlations between various assets can increase.
Media and Information: News and media coverage can influence investor behavior across different markets. If there is significant coverage or attention on both traditional markets and Bitcoin simultaneously, it can lead to coordinated moves.
Certainly, here are a few additional points to consider regarding the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets, specifically the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and the technology sector:
Safe-Haven Asset Perception: While Bitcoin is often referred to as "digital gold" and considered a store of value by some investors, it may exhibit positive correlation with traditional markets during periods of economic uncertainty or market turmoil. If investors perceive Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset similar to gold, it could see increased demand when traditional markets are under stress.
Macro Trends and Tech Influence: The technology sector, particularly in the NASDAQ, has been a significant driver of economic growth and innovation. If Bitcoin is seen as a part of this technological innovation and if both the technology sector and Bitcoin are influenced by similar macro trends (e.g., advancements in blockchain technology, digitalization, fintech), this could lead to positive correlation.
Market Evolution: The cryptocurrency market has been evolving, with more mature market structures, increased adoption, and growing integration with traditional finance. This could lead to tighter correlations as market participants become more sophisticated and interconnected, using similar strategies and reacting to common macroeconomic factors.
Global Liquidity: The increasing prevalence of global liquidity injections by central banks can impact both traditional markets and Bitcoin. If central banks take actions that impact liquidity in the financial system, it can lead to coordinated movements in various asset classes, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Investor Behavior: Speculative behavior and investor sentiment can drive correlations. If there's a speculative "bubble" mentality, where investors are seeking quick gains across different assets, this can lead to correlated movements as capital flows into multiple markets simultaneously.
The correlation between Bitcoin and two major equity indices, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, surged to an 18-month high, according to new research.
Historically, Bitcoin has maintained a relatively low correlation to traditional asset classes, including equity indices and commodities like gold.
However, in recent weeks, the leading cryptocurrency's correlation to two major indices—the S&P 500 and Nasdaq—has been on the rise.
However, there are a few factors that can help explain why Bitcoin's correlation might have been positive with these markets during certain periods:
Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite: Bitcoin, as a relatively new and highly volatile asset, can be influenced by similar market sentiment and risk appetite as traditional markets. When investors are optimistic about the economy and financial markets, they may be more willing to invest in riskier assets like Bitcoin, leading to a positive correlation.
Institutional Involvement: The increasing involvement of institutional investors in both traditional markets and the cryptocurrency space can lead to correlated price movements. If large institutional players start allocating funds to both stocks and Bitcoin, it can create a positive correlation as these players rebalance their portfolios.
Global Economic Factors: Major global economic events, such as monetary policy decisions by central banks, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators, can impact both traditional markets and Bitcoin. When these events affect the broader economy, they may impact both stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Liquidity and Speculation: During times of high liquidity in the markets, where investors are looking for speculative opportunities, Bitcoin can become part of that speculation. When liquidity is ample, correlations between various assets can increase.
Media and Information: News and media coverage can influence investor behavior across different markets. If there is significant coverage or attention on both traditional markets and Bitcoin simultaneously, it can lead to coordinated moves.
Certainly, here are a few additional points to consider regarding the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets, specifically the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and the technology sector:
Safe-Haven Asset Perception: While Bitcoin is often referred to as "digital gold" and considered a store of value by some investors, it may exhibit positive correlation with traditional markets during periods of economic uncertainty or market turmoil. If investors perceive Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset similar to gold, it could see increased demand when traditional markets are under stress.
Macro Trends and Tech Influence: The technology sector, particularly in the NASDAQ, has been a significant driver of economic growth and innovation. If Bitcoin is seen as a part of this technological innovation and if both the technology sector and Bitcoin are influenced by similar macro trends (e.g., advancements in blockchain technology, digitalization, fintech), this could lead to positive correlation.
Market Evolution: The cryptocurrency market has been evolving, with more mature market structures, increased adoption, and growing integration with traditional finance. This could lead to tighter correlations as market participants become more sophisticated and interconnected, using similar strategies and reacting to common macroeconomic factors.
Global Liquidity: The increasing prevalence of global liquidity injections by central banks can impact both traditional markets and Bitcoin. If central banks take actions that impact liquidity in the financial system, it can lead to coordinated movements in various asset classes, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Investor Behavior: Speculative behavior and investor sentiment can drive correlations. If there's a speculative "bubble" mentality, where investors are seeking quick gains across different assets, this can lead to correlated movements as capital flows into multiple markets simultaneously.
Comment:
Bitcoin’s Correlation With S&P 500, Nasdaq Hits Highest Level Since July 2020
The correlation between Bitcoin and two major equity indices, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, surged to an 18-month high, according to new research.
Historically, Bitcoin has maintained a relatively low correlation to traditional asset classes, including equity indices and commodities like gold.
However, in recent weeks, the leading cryptocurrency's correlation to two major indices—the S&P 500 and Nasdaq—has been on the rise.
However, there are a few factors that can help explain why Bitcoin's correlation might have been positive with these markets during certain periods:
Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite: Bitcoin, as a relatively new and highly volatile asset, can be influenced by similar market sentiment and risk appetite as traditional markets. When investors are optimistic about the economy and financial markets, they may be more willing to invest in riskier assets like Bitcoin, leading to a positive correlation.
Institutional Involvement: The increasing involvement of institutional investors in both traditional markets and the cryptocurrency space can lead to correlated price movements. If large institutional players start allocating funds to both stocks and Bitcoin, it can create a positive correlation as these players rebalance their portfolios.
Global Economic Factors: Major global economic events, such as monetary policy decisions by central banks, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators, can impact both traditional markets and Bitcoin. When these events affect the broader economy, they may impact both stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Liquidity and Speculation: During times of high liquidity in the markets, where investors are looking for speculative opportunities, Bitcoin can become part of that speculation. When liquidity is ample, correlations between various assets can increase.
Media and Information: News and media coverage can influence investor behavior across different markets. If there is significant coverage or attention on both traditional markets and Bitcoin simultaneously, it can lead to coordinated moves.
Certainly, here are a few additional points to consider regarding the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets, specifically the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and the technology sector:
Safe-Haven Asset Perception: While Bitcoin is often referred to as "digital gold" and considered a store of value by some investors, it may exhibit positive correlation with traditional markets during periods of economic uncertainty or market turmoil. If investors perceive Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset similar to gold, it could see increased demand when traditional markets are under stress.
Macro Trends and Tech Influence: The technology sector, particularly in the NASDAQ, has been a significant driver of economic growth and innovation. If Bitcoin is seen as a part of this technological innovation and if both the technology sector and Bitcoin are influenced by similar macro trends (e.g., advancements in blockchain technology, digitalization, fintech), this could lead to positive correlation.
Market Evolution: The cryptocurrency market has been evolving, with more mature market structures, increased adoption, and growing integration with traditional finance. This could lead to tighter correlations as market participants become more sophisticated and interconnected, using similar strategies and reacting to common macroeconomic factors.
Global Liquidity: The increasing prevalence of global liquidity injections by central banks can impact both traditional markets and Bitcoin. If central banks take actions that impact liquidity in the financial system, it can lead to coordinated movements in various asset classes, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Investor Behavior: Speculative behavior and investor sentiment can drive correlations. If there's a speculative "bubble" mentality, where investors are seeking quick gains across different assets, this can lead to correlated movements as capital flows into multiple markets simultaneously.
The correlation between Bitcoin and two major equity indices, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, surged to an 18-month high, according to new research.
Historically, Bitcoin has maintained a relatively low correlation to traditional asset classes, including equity indices and commodities like gold.
However, in recent weeks, the leading cryptocurrency's correlation to two major indices—the S&P 500 and Nasdaq—has been on the rise.
However, there are a few factors that can help explain why Bitcoin's correlation might have been positive with these markets during certain periods:
Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite: Bitcoin, as a relatively new and highly volatile asset, can be influenced by similar market sentiment and risk appetite as traditional markets. When investors are optimistic about the economy and financial markets, they may be more willing to invest in riskier assets like Bitcoin, leading to a positive correlation.
Institutional Involvement: The increasing involvement of institutional investors in both traditional markets and the cryptocurrency space can lead to correlated price movements. If large institutional players start allocating funds to both stocks and Bitcoin, it can create a positive correlation as these players rebalance their portfolios.
Global Economic Factors: Major global economic events, such as monetary policy decisions by central banks, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators, can impact both traditional markets and Bitcoin. When these events affect the broader economy, they may impact both stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Liquidity and Speculation: During times of high liquidity in the markets, where investors are looking for speculative opportunities, Bitcoin can become part of that speculation. When liquidity is ample, correlations between various assets can increase.
Media and Information: News and media coverage can influence investor behavior across different markets. If there is significant coverage or attention on both traditional markets and Bitcoin simultaneously, it can lead to coordinated moves.
Certainly, here are a few additional points to consider regarding the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets, specifically the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and the technology sector:
Safe-Haven Asset Perception: While Bitcoin is often referred to as "digital gold" and considered a store of value by some investors, it may exhibit positive correlation with traditional markets during periods of economic uncertainty or market turmoil. If investors perceive Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset similar to gold, it could see increased demand when traditional markets are under stress.
Macro Trends and Tech Influence: The technology sector, particularly in the NASDAQ, has been a significant driver of economic growth and innovation. If Bitcoin is seen as a part of this technological innovation and if both the technology sector and Bitcoin are influenced by similar macro trends (e.g., advancements in blockchain technology, digitalization, fintech), this could lead to positive correlation.
Market Evolution: The cryptocurrency market has been evolving, with more mature market structures, increased adoption, and growing integration with traditional finance. This could lead to tighter correlations as market participants become more sophisticated and interconnected, using similar strategies and reacting to common macroeconomic factors.
Global Liquidity: The increasing prevalence of global liquidity injections by central banks can impact both traditional markets and Bitcoin. If central banks take actions that impact liquidity in the financial system, it can lead to coordinated movements in various asset classes, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Investor Behavior: Speculative behavior and investor sentiment can drive correlations. If there's a speculative "bubble" mentality, where investors are seeking quick gains across different assets, this can lead to correlated movements as capital flows into multiple markets simultaneously.
Comment:
DXY down
Oil UP
Nasdaq,Dow,RTY AND Tech bullish
Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data
Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Decline at all Horizons, Expectations about Household Financial Situation Improve
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the July 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations declined at the short-, medium-, and longer-term horizons. Year-ahead price growth expectations for food, medical care, and rent declined to their lowest levels since at least early 2021. Labor market expectations strengthened, while households’ perceptions about their current financial situations and expectations for the future improved.
The main findings from the July 2023 Survey are:
Inflation
Median inflation expectations declined across all three horizons, falling from 3.8% to 3.5% at the one-year-ahead horizon and from 3.0% to 2.9% at both the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons.The decline at the one-year-ahead horizon was broad based across demographic groups and the July reading is the lowest since April 2021. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all three horizons.
Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one-year-ahead horizon and increased slightly at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons.
Median home price growth expectations decreased from 2.9% in June to 2.8% in July, remaining well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.0%.
Median year-ahead expected price changes declined for all commodities: by 0.2 percentage point for gas (to 4.5%), 0.1 percentage point for food (to 5.2%), 0.9 percentage point for medical care (to 8.4%), 0.3 percentage point for the cost of a college education (to 8.0%), and 0.4 percentage point for rent (to 9.0%). The current readings for food, medical care, and rent are the lowest since September 2020, November 2020, and January 2021, respectively.
Labor Market
Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.8%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.8% to 3.0% since September 2021.
Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 36.7%, the lowest reading since April 2022.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 11.8%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months decreased by 1.9 percentage point, to 17.0%, its lowest reading since March 2021. The decrease in the average quit probability was broad based across demographic groups.
The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) increased from 55.3% in June to 55.8% in July.
Household Finance
Median expected growth in household income was unchanged at 3.2% in July and remains below the series 12-month trailing average of 3.6%.
Median household spending growth expectations increased from 5.2% in June to 5.4% in July, but remains well below its 12-month trailing average of 6.1%.
Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago and expectations about credit access a year from now were largely unchanged, with a slight deterioration in current perceptions and a slight improvement in year-ahead expectations.
The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 11.7% in July.
The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) remained unchanged at 4.3%.
Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased from 10.0% in June to 9.7% in July.
The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.9%.
Perceptions about households’ current financial situations improved in July with more respondents reporting being better off than a year ago and fewer respondents reporting being worse off. Similarly, year-ahead expectations improved with fewer respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now and more respondents expecting to be better off. The share expecting to be better off a year from now is the highest since September 2021.
The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.8 percentage points to 37.1%.
Bitcoin started its bullish trend continuation based on buying pressure of the tech industry.
Oil UP
Nasdaq,Dow,RTY AND Tech bullish
Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data
Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Decline at all Horizons, Expectations about Household Financial Situation Improve
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the July 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations declined at the short-, medium-, and longer-term horizons. Year-ahead price growth expectations for food, medical care, and rent declined to their lowest levels since at least early 2021. Labor market expectations strengthened, while households’ perceptions about their current financial situations and expectations for the future improved.
The main findings from the July 2023 Survey are:
Inflation
Median inflation expectations declined across all three horizons, falling from 3.8% to 3.5% at the one-year-ahead horizon and from 3.0% to 2.9% at both the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons.The decline at the one-year-ahead horizon was broad based across demographic groups and the July reading is the lowest since April 2021. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all three horizons.
Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one-year-ahead horizon and increased slightly at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons.
Median home price growth expectations decreased from 2.9% in June to 2.8% in July, remaining well above the series 12-month trailing average of 2.0%.
Median year-ahead expected price changes declined for all commodities: by 0.2 percentage point for gas (to 4.5%), 0.1 percentage point for food (to 5.2%), 0.9 percentage point for medical care (to 8.4%), 0.3 percentage point for the cost of a college education (to 8.0%), and 0.4 percentage point for rent (to 9.0%). The current readings for food, medical care, and rent are the lowest since September 2020, November 2020, and January 2021, respectively.
Labor Market
Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.8%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.8% to 3.0% since September 2021.
Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 36.7%, the lowest reading since April 2022.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 11.8%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months decreased by 1.9 percentage point, to 17.0%, its lowest reading since March 2021. The decrease in the average quit probability was broad based across demographic groups.
The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) increased from 55.3% in June to 55.8% in July.
Household Finance
Median expected growth in household income was unchanged at 3.2% in July and remains below the series 12-month trailing average of 3.6%.
Median household spending growth expectations increased from 5.2% in June to 5.4% in July, but remains well below its 12-month trailing average of 6.1%.
Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago and expectations about credit access a year from now were largely unchanged, with a slight deterioration in current perceptions and a slight improvement in year-ahead expectations.
The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 11.7% in July.
The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) remained unchanged at 4.3%.
Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased from 10.0% in June to 9.7% in July.
The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.9%.
Perceptions about households’ current financial situations improved in July with more respondents reporting being better off than a year ago and fewer respondents reporting being worse off. Similarly, year-ahead expectations improved with fewer respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now and more respondents expecting to be better off. The share expecting to be better off a year from now is the highest since September 2021.
The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.8 percentage points to 37.1%.
Bitcoin started its bullish trend continuation based on buying pressure of the tech industry.
The upcoming week in the US will be dominated by news related to prices, including the inflation rate, producer prices, and export and import prices, as well as the Michigan consumer confidence CPI gauge. Additionally, CPI figures are scheduled to be released in China, Mexico, Brazil, India, and Russia. In the UK, the Q1 GDP growth data will be released, and investors will be closely monitoring the Bank of England's interest rate decision. Elsewhere, China is set to publish external trade data, and Australia will report on consumer and business confidence.