Earlier this month, my friend Harrison Schwartz wrote an eye opening article exposing the disaster that is in store for Chinese Real Estate investors (seekingalpha.com/art...0-42-trillion-bubble). The article analyzes the unthinkable situation China is in, and what is most likely going to happen. After reading it, my first thought was how can I make money off of this inevitable crash? That brought me to TAO, an ETF that tracks Chinese Real Estate. Fundamentally, this ETF could drop 80% over the next year or two. Technically, the signs are there as well. It is the most logical trade I have ever made.
Looking at the chart, there is a clear head and shoulders pattern that has formed over the past 10 months. A death cross has recently occurred, marked by the 50 day moving average crossing below the 200 day moving average, a very bearish signal. There has been a recent bounce after bullish divergence on the RSI which could lead more short term gains. However, if TAO reaches the low $29's, it will most likely get stopped out by resistance in the 200 day moving average and resume its plummet, where I will be looking to enter a highly leveraged short position. Lastly, the weekly chart for TAO confirms the long term bear trend that it has entered, as RSI is pointing down hard, validating the recent bull trap.
Looking at the chart, there is a clear head and shoulders pattern that has formed over the past 10 months. A death cross has recently occurred, marked by the 50 day moving average crossing below the 200 day moving average, a very bearish signal. There has been a recent bounce after bullish divergence on the RSI which could lead more short term gains. However, if TAO reaches the low $29's, it will most likely get stopped out by resistance in the 200 day moving average and resume its plummet, where I will be looking to enter a highly leveraged short position. Lastly, the weekly chart for TAO confirms the long term bear trend that it has entered, as RSI is pointing down hard, validating the recent bull trap.