S&P Growth (SPYG) Channels since 2002 - Way, Way Above Normal
FYSA, SPYG tracks teh top 50 largest securities in the S&P 500. Holds 5 of the 6 FAAMNG stocks, which accounts for 39% of the ETF.
I laid out what I see as the 4 main channels for SPYG. It is clearly obvious that it the current trend is way above the trend from both the 2002-2008 and 2010-2019. You can see the 2020-22 rally was an extension of a trend that started in 2019 that was interrupted by the COVID crisis. It truly was the once in a life time opportunity for most traders.
Now the more subjective part. This really depends on if you believe the market will eventually return to the mean. To me, it looks like the party is over and we are going to see a return to one of the lower channels in the coming months and years. We could see a 2nd attempt to test the red channel, but the outlook with reduced QE and continued challenges from inflation, Russia, and Covid are not fertile ground for this continued irrational market behavior. The most obvious trend change to me would be to work its way down in to the blue channel, probably stepping down on the major support/resistance lines. Not sure if it would be better to slowly do this, or end up with a 2000 or 2008 crash. At least a crash has major opportunities for VIX ETFs and its like a band-aid.
Check out the 1D chart below. You can see how the price jumps around the channel edges.
1W
1D
I laid out what I see as the 4 main channels for SPYG. It is clearly obvious that it the current trend is way above the trend from both the 2002-2008 and 2010-2019. You can see the 2020-22 rally was an extension of a trend that started in 2019 that was interrupted by the COVID crisis. It truly was the once in a life time opportunity for most traders.
Now the more subjective part. This really depends on if you believe the market will eventually return to the mean. To me, it looks like the party is over and we are going to see a return to one of the lower channels in the coming months and years. We could see a 2nd attempt to test the red channel, but the outlook with reduced QE and continued challenges from inflation, Russia, and Covid are not fertile ground for this continued irrational market behavior. The most obvious trend change to me would be to work its way down in to the blue channel, probably stepping down on the major support/resistance lines. Not sure if it would be better to slowly do this, or end up with a 2000 or 2008 crash. At least a crash has major opportunities for VIX ETFs and its like a band-aid.
Check out the 1D chart below. You can see how the price jumps around the channel edges.
1W
1D
