Charting is amazing. The excitement it gives me is far greater than the satisfaction a good trade could ever give me. It is easy for me to state this fact since I don't trade. I consider the stock market as a super-long-term strategy. A strategy that lasts for generations, not a career. After all, the most wealthy have ancestors heavily invested in the stock...
AMEX:IVV If the ETF price moves above the bullish line, set around $439.15, there are three potential upside targets to watch: Target Price 1 at $442.59. Target Price 2 at $444.94. Target Price 3 at $448.28. Conversely, if the ETF price breaks below the bearish line at $435.53, there are a couple of potential downside targets: Target Price 1 at...
Follow up to my previous post. The big sell today confirms that the 20 day EMA is lost and a test of the 200 day is next. Not sure how low it will go, but the blue trend line, the 200 day, and the previous orange trading channel should provide support. Lose that, then down to the dotted red center line around 3700. If that comes true, then there is ample reason to...
Looks like S&P is losing support of the 20 day SMA. You can see that it is currently clearly below the 20 day close SMA and now looks to below the 20 day low SMA. You can see in my chart that when this happens the indicator turns red and almost every time some level of pull back follows. How low is always the questions. It seems like the minimal pull back should...
What I see is that the S&P has confirmed a new down channel (red) with Thursday's (2/2) peak after it broke out of the orange down channel made from the tops in March and August 2022. This new red channel is created with the two lows from June and October 2022 and the price action from May 21. If this holds, then bear market is still intact and price will fall. I...
S&P broke above resistance trend line of the down channel yesterday. Is this a breakout with more upside or a fakeout? Trading rules say we should look for a test of the trend line before confirmation of the breakout. Market really wants to put 2022 in the rearview mirror, but let's see what happens.
US500 (includes extended hours) showing resistance at top of the down channel started at the beginning of 2022. Is it time to breakout or is it more down? I say down, but I am hedging both ways.
Another big picture view like my idea on the NASDAQ. Right now, it looks like on the monthly that the S&P has been testing the the purple trend line, but no success. From the looks of it, there is still a good size drop to come down to at least the bottom of the blue channel ($350) to test previous low, maybe even the center line of the purple channel around $325....
Crazy two weeks with some massive price swings. However, all said and done the down trend that started in January is still intact. Big test yesterday of resistance but ultimately failed with the gap up closed and no follow through after Fed rate hike. Looks like a good old pump and dump. The gray region (connects to gap up in 4/21) that I drew seems to be a very...
If you look back over this long correction since the beginning of the year, every time the price closed with a red candle below the lower bound of the 20 day moving average the price continued to move lower. I don't see why this time is any different. I would expect support at the $380 and maybe down to the $375 level. That would bring the S&P right around the...
You can see that over the last two days that the S&P is jumped above the 200 day on Wednesday huge rally, which also broke above the April 2021 gap. However, today saw a rejection of the resistance of the down channel that started Jan 2022 ATH. This channel has rejected price solidly 2x times now. The most probable thing would be to see a rejection and to head...
It is my opinion that some form of a top is here. i have closed my calls..... even if we don't sell off and just go sideways; i don't think we will see higher all of dec. which means no santa rally this year. the bullish run should continue very early jan (jan 4 maybe) 2023. as an overview. i do think the bear market is over. i do think the bull market will...
Pattern looking a lot like August. With many traders taking vacation over the next month and lower volume, this would be a good time to see the market rally.
S&P 500 is currently finding support at the bottom of the down channel. It is also the 0.618 fib level. Today's price action is up and trying to bounce off the support line. I personally don't think this is the bottom, but this is an important place to watch. We could get a good rally off this trend line like back in the summer. However, the recent short rally was...
Current price action suggests test of 20 day SMA after finding support at the bottom of the channel and touch off the 200 week SMA (see my other posts on 200 week SMA). The new bullish counter rally is not really confirmed until it can hold above the 20 day and break the blue trend line. A bullish sign would be to break out, retest the 20 and the trend and then...
Pretty simple chart. The S&P has used the 200 week SMA as support for a long time. However, back in 2008, you can see almost the exact same pattern in both price and the RSI. The market went mostly sideways following the 200 week SMA for about 5 months before it eventually crashed. 1D time frame
Looking at the current corrective wave structure, I think that we have another leg or maybe even two down before that market finds a bottom. In Elliott wave theory, wave C is based on the drop of wave A by aligning it to the top of wave B as shown in the chart. The market is currently testing the 0.618 fib level. This is also the bottom of the current down...
Here is a look at the 20 and 200 WEEK moving average on the IVV ticker. Note how the S&P has reliably tested the 200 week MA during strong corrections over the last 12 years or so. Rarely does the price go much below. It also seems reasonable to me that we both get a retest of the June low and a more significant test of the Feb 2020 high. If we see this, then...