Losing the Forest for the Trees <SPY 330 - EOY to Q1-Q2? 2023
Many traders and wanna be analysts on here seem to be losing the forest for the trees. They're looking at short day or two pops, or even week long dead-cat-bounce/bear-market-rallies and thinking the bottom is in. Be not swayed by CopiumNBC or hopium perma-bulls that have never experienced a bear market. More traders than ever are active and involved in the market, and have been since 2012. They didn't endure 2008-2012, and they don't know how cold winter can get.
Don't think that Joey B is impartial in denying we're in a recession either - he has party hopefuls going to the polls in a couple of weeks. Granted, rallies are natural on the way down; that doesn't mean they're sustained. Jerome wasn't citing Volcker last month for no reason. Core PCE came in at another 40 year high. Jobless claims keep batting under estimates. When Bostic isn't insider trading bonds during a prohibited lockup period, and Bullard isn't giving confidential off record talks to Citi executives in contravention of their rules, most of the fed sounds bearish.
We've sold off ~26% from ATH on SPY but a real recession could see a >50% decline. That would equate to a range somewhere between 300 and 330; likely with a bounce/pivot at 316~. Elsewhere arguments have shown the Fed has *n e v e r* pivoted before VIX hit 40+.
If the fed pivots sooner, of course we'll get more bullish (even if inflation after debasing our currency by a fifth of total supply in 2020 and 2021 has reduced real purchasing power significantly, all while redistributing wealth disproportionately to the richest with more of their wealth in the market than anywhere else). If you use JPOW's printing as a reason to discount the post-March 2020 COVID high as unrealistic funny money, 50% of our January-February 2020 high is an even scarier target - less than half our current valuation, around 161~ or our 2014 range. I highly doubt it gets that ugly, but the global economic climate is not bullish no matter what some snakeoil salesmen may be offering you.
Where are your price targets? What are your expectations? Do you believe the FUD around a midterm rally followed by more selling? I believed it enough that I rolled out my 11/4 and 11/18 SPY puts to January and March strikes, and left profits on the table in the process.
Do you think WMT or AMZN or CBP will endure better than growth stocks? They should, but how much better? My 401k is almost exclusively SQQQ (yay!) and bonds (RIP).
Apologies for the chart trees / lumbermill - I play horizontal lines primarily as support / resistance, and I trade daily in addition to swings. It clouds your yearly view, but I also consult /ES and SPX as needed to avoid my own biases as exhibited in drawings. I appreciate your thoughts, even if you think SPY 500 EOY, I'll be glad to hear the punchline. Good luck, vaya con dios.
Don't think that Joey B is impartial in denying we're in a recession either - he has party hopefuls going to the polls in a couple of weeks. Granted, rallies are natural on the way down; that doesn't mean they're sustained. Jerome wasn't citing Volcker last month for no reason. Core PCE came in at another 40 year high. Jobless claims keep batting under estimates. When Bostic isn't insider trading bonds during a prohibited lockup period, and Bullard isn't giving confidential off record talks to Citi executives in contravention of their rules, most of the fed sounds bearish.
We've sold off ~26% from ATH on SPY but a real recession could see a >50% decline. That would equate to a range somewhere between 300 and 330; likely with a bounce/pivot at 316~. Elsewhere arguments have shown the Fed has *n e v e r* pivoted before VIX hit 40+.
If the fed pivots sooner, of course we'll get more bullish (even if inflation after debasing our currency by a fifth of total supply in 2020 and 2021 has reduced real purchasing power significantly, all while redistributing wealth disproportionately to the richest with more of their wealth in the market than anywhere else). If you use JPOW's printing as a reason to discount the post-March 2020 COVID high as unrealistic funny money, 50% of our January-February 2020 high is an even scarier target - less than half our current valuation, around 161~ or our 2014 range. I highly doubt it gets that ugly, but the global economic climate is not bullish no matter what some snakeoil salesmen may be offering you.
Where are your price targets? What are your expectations? Do you believe the FUD around a midterm rally followed by more selling? I believed it enough that I rolled out my 11/4 and 11/18 SPY puts to January and March strikes, and left profits on the table in the process.
Do you think WMT or AMZN or CBP will endure better than growth stocks? They should, but how much better? My 401k is almost exclusively SQQQ (yay!) and bonds (RIP).
Apologies for the chart trees / lumbermill - I play horizontal lines primarily as support / resistance, and I trade daily in addition to swings. It clouds your yearly view, but I also consult /ES and SPX as needed to avoid my own biases as exhibited in drawings. I appreciate your thoughts, even if you think SPY 500 EOY, I'll be glad to hear the punchline. Good luck, vaya con dios.
