Here is a look at $SPY since the beginning of this year.
It looks to me like were in the last leg of this rally, about to finish w5 right at the months long DTL, as we approach a bunch typical w5 fib levels, the A=C 1:1 extension of the oct 13-nov 1 swing, and the 200 MA. The daily RSI is also approaching overbought territory.
If we get a rejection at the 410-415 level, i expect we'll start another months long trek down to the low 300's, probably somewhere around 320-340.
323 is the 50% retracement of the entire post covid rally and 320 is a 100% retracement from the sept 2020 low.
Some long dated 400 or 410 puts may pay out really well if bought above 400. A mistake i've made in the past is jumping in too early, so it would be wise to wait for a confirmation of rejection before going hamtaro.
Counterpoint
If we can break past this year long DTL, the equation obviously changes. If we somehow cross 430 convincingly, i would become a lot more bullish on SPY.
It looks to me like were in the last leg of this rally, about to finish w5 right at the months long DTL, as we approach a bunch typical w5 fib levels, the A=C 1:1 extension of the oct 13-nov 1 swing, and the 200 MA. The daily RSI is also approaching overbought territory.
If we get a rejection at the 410-415 level, i expect we'll start another months long trek down to the low 300's, probably somewhere around 320-340.
323 is the 50% retracement of the entire post covid rally and 320 is a 100% retracement from the sept 2020 low.
Some long dated 400 or 410 puts may pay out really well if bought above 400. A mistake i've made in the past is jumping in too early, so it would be wise to wait for a confirmation of rejection before going hamtaro.
Counterpoint
If we can break past this year long DTL, the equation obviously changes. If we somehow cross 430 convincingly, i would become a lot more bullish on SPY.