US Economy Has Entered A Potential Parabolic Phase End

I think this is the most important macro trend to pay attention to in our economic history, I see many 1930 comparisons with 2023 saying we are at the "1931" collapse point but all economic data is pointing that we are most likely at the 1927-1928 stage and crazy enough when you compare the macro trends they make the same giant symmetrical wedge pattern.

Now I'm going to share some archives of The New York Times from the same period to see where the mentality is.
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November 17, 1927
"98 and interest, to yield about 5.75%"
"temporary bonds"
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October 30, 1928
"London Paper Predicts Crash on Change There It Speculation Goes On.
LONDON, Oct. 29.—Speculative activity on the London Stock Exchange which sent prices of certain shares of doubtful value bounding upward, led the Daily Express to issue a solemn warning that a crash was certain to come unless the stock-gambling mania ceased."
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November 3, 1929
"SEES WALL ST. REACTION.
Stock Decline Will Aid Real Estate, Says Mandelbaum."
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November 25, 1929
"ASKS STATE INQUIRY ON STOCK RECESSION
Senator Hastings Wants the Governor to Name Committee of Business Leaders. MENTIONS SHORT SELLING But Finds Law Passed to Prevent It Failed of its Purpose and Was Repealed in 1857. Sees Short Selling a Factor Doubt As to Remedy."
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Here we are again different stages, different cycles.
But the main difference is our system bailed out our crashes since 2001 starting with interest rate cuts, we can clearly see the ups and downs are more violent when the FRED intervenes in the market.

Do I suspect we get a giant crash in a few years? unlikely the FRED will not debase / change the rules but stopping a new parabolic run up is much harder to stop.

They printed too much currency in 2020 now that inflation is halted via the fastest rate cycle in history where is all this capital going to flow into? correct equities and crypto.


Best to remember the 1929 quote of the thought of "Banning Short Selling" my guess is IF this starts to turn into a parabolic secular cycle ending the FRED will start to control the markets and limit ability to sell / short sell or QE / YCC the market during the final stage.

We will know if this is repeating if the wedge breaks out from now to early 2024.

Comment:

Oh

Comment:

4600 has been tested and held.
Is this it?