The wave moved slower than planned, but this is great for the bulls. New target top is around December 2nd. Based on historical data when a wave 3 is in a wave 5 is in a wave 1 (which is where we are according to my current models) movement and length are as follows:
WAVE 1 to WAVE 3
The ratio between wave 1 and wave 3's length falls between 0.21 to 0.60. The average ratio is 0.444, with a mean around 0.47. When the macro wave is wave 1, the average is 0.43 and median is 0.53. When the macro wave is wave 3, average is 0.45 and median is 0.38. When the macro wave is wave 5 (which is the current case) the average and median is 0.47, but the amount of data is limited.
Wave 1 lasted 105 bars on a 15 minute chart. The "table" below highlights the ratios, potential bars wave 3 would last, and the end date. I have included the minimum and maximum values to attempt to bound the movement. I have included the more common ratios as the likely top resides in the 0.40s.
Ratio Bars End Date
0.21 500 (did not calculate--unlikely to occur)
0.38 276 December 3
0.43 244 December 2
0.44 238 December 2
0.45 233 December 2
0.47 223 December 1
0.53 198 November 30
0.60 175 November 30
WAVE 2 to WAVE 3
Following a similar concept, the ratio between wave 2 and wave 3's length falls between 0.05 to 0.23. The average ratio is 0.157, with a mean around 0.15. When the macro wave is wave 1, the average is 0.156 and median is 0.15. When the macro wave is wave 3, average is 0.143 and median is 0.15. When the macro wave is wave 5 (which is the current case) the average and median is 0.19, but the amount of data is limited.
Wave 2 lasted 39 bars on a 15 minute chart. The "table" below highlights the ratios, potential bars wave 3 would last, and the end date. I have included the minimum and maximum values to attempt to bound the movement. I have included the more common ratios as the likely top resides in the 0.40s.
Ratio Bars End Date
0.05 780 (did not calculate--unlikely to occur)
0.143 272 December 2
0.15 260 December 2
0.19 205 December 2
0.23 169 November 29
The most common area for Wave 3 to end was between December 1-3 which is why I choose December 2 as my target.
I used the same concept for determining price movement. Wave 1 moved 84.09 & wave 2 moved 42.17.
WAVE 1 to WAVE 3
Ratio Movement Projected Top
0.39 215.6154 4888.395
0.49 171.612 4844.39
0.73 115.192 4787.97
0.94 89.457 4762.24
1.30 64.6846 4737.47
WAVE 2 to WAVE 3
0.14 301.214 4973.99
0.23 183.3478 4856.13
0.25 168.68 4841.46
0.29 145.4138 4818.194
0.32 130.5573 4803.337
Another set of ratios I monitor are the retracements and extensions from prior waves. Wave 1 does not retrace or extend from anything that I track so here are the ratios between wave 2's retracement of wave 1 in relation to wave 3's extension of wave 1. Wave 2 retraced 50.15% of wave 1's movement. Wave 1 began at 4630.37 so the fourth column below adds the projected movement in column three to this beginning point to project a top.
Ratio Extension Move From Start Projected Top
0.09 557.0% 468.5682 5099.43
0.10 501.5% 421.7114 5052.57
0.11 455.9% 383.374 5014.234
0.15 334.3% 281.141 4912.001
0.20 250.75% 210.856 4841.72
0.25 200.60% 168.68 4799.55
0.27 185.7% 156.18 4787.05
I noticed a few chunks of similarities when considering all of this data. 4787, 4800, and 4841 could contain or be near the tops which I why the range is contained with these values in mind.
Wave 4 is speculation and I will update it as 3 takes more shape. I have this Minor 5 ending around December 8 using similar metrics. I am projecting this top for Minor 5 and Intermediate wave 1 around 4866. I will continue to update the track as more data comes in.
After this top, looking at a decline through end of year (maybe tax/capital gains implications in new laws). Then we should be up to April 2022 before a slightly longer decline (maybe a few months from top to bottom). I don't see the "Big One" coming until 2045 (for now).
My process is not perfect, but I keep learning from failed projections. Let me know what you think.
WAVE 1 to WAVE 3
The ratio between wave 1 and wave 3's length falls between 0.21 to 0.60. The average ratio is 0.444, with a mean around 0.47. When the macro wave is wave 1, the average is 0.43 and median is 0.53. When the macro wave is wave 3, average is 0.45 and median is 0.38. When the macro wave is wave 5 (which is the current case) the average and median is 0.47, but the amount of data is limited.
Wave 1 lasted 105 bars on a 15 minute chart. The "table" below highlights the ratios, potential bars wave 3 would last, and the end date. I have included the minimum and maximum values to attempt to bound the movement. I have included the more common ratios as the likely top resides in the 0.40s.
Ratio Bars End Date
0.21 500 (did not calculate--unlikely to occur)
0.38 276 December 3
0.43 244 December 2
0.44 238 December 2
0.45 233 December 2
0.47 223 December 1
0.53 198 November 30
0.60 175 November 30
WAVE 2 to WAVE 3
Following a similar concept, the ratio between wave 2 and wave 3's length falls between 0.05 to 0.23. The average ratio is 0.157, with a mean around 0.15. When the macro wave is wave 1, the average is 0.156 and median is 0.15. When the macro wave is wave 3, average is 0.143 and median is 0.15. When the macro wave is wave 5 (which is the current case) the average and median is 0.19, but the amount of data is limited.
Wave 2 lasted 39 bars on a 15 minute chart. The "table" below highlights the ratios, potential bars wave 3 would last, and the end date. I have included the minimum and maximum values to attempt to bound the movement. I have included the more common ratios as the likely top resides in the 0.40s.
Ratio Bars End Date
0.05 780 (did not calculate--unlikely to occur)
0.143 272 December 2
0.15 260 December 2
0.19 205 December 2
0.23 169 November 29
The most common area for Wave 3 to end was between December 1-3 which is why I choose December 2 as my target.
I used the same concept for determining price movement. Wave 1 moved 84.09 & wave 2 moved 42.17.
WAVE 1 to WAVE 3
Ratio Movement Projected Top
0.39 215.6154 4888.395
0.49 171.612 4844.39
0.73 115.192 4787.97
0.94 89.457 4762.24
1.30 64.6846 4737.47
WAVE 2 to WAVE 3
0.14 301.214 4973.99
0.23 183.3478 4856.13
0.25 168.68 4841.46
0.29 145.4138 4818.194
0.32 130.5573 4803.337
Another set of ratios I monitor are the retracements and extensions from prior waves. Wave 1 does not retrace or extend from anything that I track so here are the ratios between wave 2's retracement of wave 1 in relation to wave 3's extension of wave 1. Wave 2 retraced 50.15% of wave 1's movement. Wave 1 began at 4630.37 so the fourth column below adds the projected movement in column three to this beginning point to project a top.
Ratio Extension Move From Start Projected Top
0.09 557.0% 468.5682 5099.43
0.10 501.5% 421.7114 5052.57
0.11 455.9% 383.374 5014.234
0.15 334.3% 281.141 4912.001
0.20 250.75% 210.856 4841.72
0.25 200.60% 168.68 4799.55
0.27 185.7% 156.18 4787.05
I noticed a few chunks of similarities when considering all of this data. 4787, 4800, and 4841 could contain or be near the tops which I why the range is contained with these values in mind.
Wave 4 is speculation and I will update it as 3 takes more shape. I have this Minor 5 ending around December 8 using similar metrics. I am projecting this top for Minor 5 and Intermediate wave 1 around 4866. I will continue to update the track as more data comes in.
After this top, looking at a decline through end of year (maybe tax/capital gains implications in new laws). Then we should be up to April 2022 before a slightly longer decline (maybe a few months from top to bottom). I don't see the "Big One" coming until 2045 (for now).
My process is not perfect, but I keep learning from failed projections. Let me know what you think.
All forecasts are based on analysis of past behavior. Prior movements are not always indicative of future movement. Develop the theory, test the theory. Do your own research. Nothing in this analysis constitutes advice. YouTube For More. Good luck!!
