The bitter memory from 2008 still persists in our minds, or at least in the minds of those who witnessed first hand what a Great Recession is. In 2008 many variables were set and many gears were in motion. Long story short, even though the media has attempted to call a recession, or to spread the fear of the bear among the people, which technically yes, it is a bear market by definition, it is not a recession, just yet.
We’re in a hiking rate environment, and still the major indexes have managed to find support on the long term moving averages. Comparing the levels and the moving average crosses today and in 2008, the main difference we find is the levels did cross down and the trend was officially bear. Afterwards a capitulation took place and the macroeconomic variables changed to provide the environment for a rebound and a reversal which gave birth to this secular bull market.
We’re not at the capitulation level, the volume has been steady and we’re on the bullish side of the trend. What did we just witness? A bear leg, basically a painful correction. The indexes are turning to the upside, the market took profits and the VIX scratched above the 20 level. We’ll probably see more selling because we’re in the take profit part of the short term cycle. We’ll see how deep the market is willing to dive, but the positive momentum divergence and the back to the green of the indicators show the intent to go for a bullish leg.
The target area is at the 4500-4600 level.
We’re in a hiking rate environment, and still the major indexes have managed to find support on the long term moving averages. Comparing the levels and the moving average crosses today and in 2008, the main difference we find is the levels did cross down and the trend was officially bear. Afterwards a capitulation took place and the macroeconomic variables changed to provide the environment for a rebound and a reversal which gave birth to this secular bull market.
We’re not at the capitulation level, the volume has been steady and we’re on the bullish side of the trend. What did we just witness? A bear leg, basically a painful correction. The indexes are turning to the upside, the market took profits and the VIX scratched above the 20 level. We’ll probably see more selling because we’re in the take profit part of the short term cycle. We’ll see how deep the market is willing to dive, but the positive momentum divergence and the back to the green of the indicators show the intent to go for a bullish leg.
The target area is at the 4500-4600 level.
