The overnight futures are signaling an open right into the 1.0 Fib Extension. Under the BLACK count (which is my primary expectation) we go back down. This would take us into the 3726 area over the next couple of days. From there we would consolidate back into the 3960 area over the course of the next couple weeks. This would be a proper wave 4 as our wave 2 was short and shallow. Afterwards we would see a precipitous decline into the 3500 level for a final wave 5 bottom.
If my primary expectation is wrong we should know today.
This would involve a rather boring day of consolidating but with an upward bias back above the 4,000 area and maybe getting as high as 4024 - 4060 by early next week. This is represented in the BLUE count (which is my alternative expectation).
What comes to mind today is the Old Market Adage of "The Markets NEVER bottom on a Friday". I still maintain having lost positive divergence on the daily chart, I feel a bottom is in the making...but it just got prolonged. That is why the BLUE count is NOT my primary as it completes this decline rather expeditiously. So, my primary expectation is we will face lower prices in the future before we have a sustainable rally.
Having said that, we may end up prolonging this bottom even longer with a serious curve ball to market participants. This entire 5 month decline has been an A wave whereas we will spend the bulk of summer gradually advancing in a countertrend B wave, only to CRASH in the 3rd quarter into the low 3,000 level. This pathway is outlined in the above chart in GREEN (a second alternative expectation). Traders must always be looking for alternative outcomes to be best prepared. This is an SECONDARY alternative and as of right now I have no information to it's probability. Only that it is a rational explanation for a prolonged bottoming pattern. It would involve us advancing past 4060 - 4090....which seems unlikely to me.
BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
Who said tracking the market's moves is easy?
Best to All,
Chris
If my primary expectation is wrong we should know today.
This would involve a rather boring day of consolidating but with an upward bias back above the 4,000 area and maybe getting as high as 4024 - 4060 by early next week. This is represented in the BLUE count (which is my alternative expectation).
What comes to mind today is the Old Market Adage of "The Markets NEVER bottom on a Friday". I still maintain having lost positive divergence on the daily chart, I feel a bottom is in the making...but it just got prolonged. That is why the BLUE count is NOT my primary as it completes this decline rather expeditiously. So, my primary expectation is we will face lower prices in the future before we have a sustainable rally.
Having said that, we may end up prolonging this bottom even longer with a serious curve ball to market participants. This entire 5 month decline has been an A wave whereas we will spend the bulk of summer gradually advancing in a countertrend B wave, only to CRASH in the 3rd quarter into the low 3,000 level. This pathway is outlined in the above chart in GREEN (a second alternative expectation). Traders must always be looking for alternative outcomes to be best prepared. This is an SECONDARY alternative and as of right now I have no information to it's probability. Only that it is a rational explanation for a prolonged bottoming pattern. It would involve us advancing past 4060 - 4090....which seems unlikely to me.
BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
Who said tracking the market's moves is easy?
Best to All,
Chris
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