The SPX hit a new low for 2022, confirming our predictions. However, we have no reason to change our bearish stance in the face of enduring macroeconomic factors. Therefore, we maintain our price target of 3 500 USD, which we expect to be reached by the end of the fourth quarter.
Tomorrow, we will pay close attention to the release of CPI figures, which might spark strong buying or selling, depending on the print. Despite that, we expect the market to stay choppy, showing wild swings from one side to another, especially as the FED meeting comes closer.
In regard to the November meeting, we believe another rate hike will negatively affect the overall market, pressuring it lower. Furthermore, we believe the SPX will drop far below our price target over time.
As for the upcoming earnings season, we think deteriorating profits will further confirm our thesis about the second stage of the bear market. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the market developments in the coming weeks.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows point to the latest technical developments in the market.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the quick selloff after the PPI print today; this price action reflects how fragile the market has become over the past months.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Tomorrow, we will pay close attention to the release of CPI figures, which might spark strong buying or selling, depending on the print. Despite that, we expect the market to stay choppy, showing wild swings from one side to another, especially as the FED meeting comes closer.
In regard to the November meeting, we believe another rate hike will negatively affect the overall market, pressuring it lower. Furthermore, we believe the SPX will drop far below our price target over time.
As for the upcoming earnings season, we think deteriorating profits will further confirm our thesis about the second stage of the bear market. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the market developments in the coming weeks.
Illustration 1.01
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Trade active:
Subsequent price action:
Trade closed: target reached:
Our price target of 3 500 USD was taken out.
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