Technical Analysis comparing MACD histogram and structure of historical black swan events with today: 2018 - 2022.
Each historical Black Swan Event share 3 simple indicators, that are in play today;
1. Incremental pullbacks of increasing % that ultimately lead to the crash
2. MACD histogram micro contractions and macro expansion that ultimately lead to the crash
3. A Trend Line of Lower Lowers followed by Higher Highs on Recovery that ultimately lead to the crash
Historical Black Swan Events;
1965 - 1975: Build Up to 73/74 Crash
1986 - 1988: Black Monday Crash
1998 - 2009: Dotcom Bubble/Subprime Crash
Today;
2018 - 2022: Black Swan Event / Crash?
Hidden MACD Indicator & Analysis
As you will observe, in each of the major black swan events / crashes since the Great Depression, all three of the indicators play out.
Most significantly is the clear contraction and expansion of the MACD that is only visible on daily or weekly timeframes depending on the crash and how it played out:
1965 to 1975 saw the build up to the 1973 Crash and thus the MACD on a weekly timeframe over 10 years expresses the contractions and expansion.
Likewise, the Dotcom bubble to subprime crashes also last around 10 years and can be observed only on the weekly timeframe.
Comparatively on a daily timeframe over the course of 2 years, Black Monday crash displays the MACD contractions and expansion
Meanwhile today in 2021 we can observe over the last 3/4 years a similar expression of the contractions and expansion.
Conclusion:
History tends to repeat itself and three major historical indicators of crashes are playing out today. We know the FED can just keep printing $$$, but regardless, the house of cards will collapse again, as it has done time and time again.
Will 2022 be the next black swan event?
Share your thoughts and interpretations!!
Each historical Black Swan Event share 3 simple indicators, that are in play today;
1. Incremental pullbacks of increasing % that ultimately lead to the crash
2. MACD histogram micro contractions and macro expansion that ultimately lead to the crash
3. A Trend Line of Lower Lowers followed by Higher Highs on Recovery that ultimately lead to the crash
Historical Black Swan Events;
1965 - 1975: Build Up to 73/74 Crash
1986 - 1988: Black Monday Crash
1998 - 2009: Dotcom Bubble/Subprime Crash
Today;
2018 - 2022: Black Swan Event / Crash?
Hidden MACD Indicator & Analysis
As you will observe, in each of the major black swan events / crashes since the Great Depression, all three of the indicators play out.
Most significantly is the clear contraction and expansion of the MACD that is only visible on daily or weekly timeframes depending on the crash and how it played out:
1965 to 1975 saw the build up to the 1973 Crash and thus the MACD on a weekly timeframe over 10 years expresses the contractions and expansion.
Likewise, the Dotcom bubble to subprime crashes also last around 10 years and can be observed only on the weekly timeframe.
Comparatively on a daily timeframe over the course of 2 years, Black Monday crash displays the MACD contractions and expansion
Meanwhile today in 2021 we can observe over the last 3/4 years a similar expression of the contractions and expansion.
Conclusion:
History tends to repeat itself and three major historical indicators of crashes are playing out today. We know the FED can just keep printing $$$, but regardless, the house of cards will collapse again, as it has done time and time again.
Will 2022 be the next black swan event?
Share your thoughts and interpretations!!