SPXUSD Daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% SPX, 70% Cash.
*Equities, Futures, Cryptos, Metals, Energy, GBPUSD, and EURUSD are all down while DXY, US Treasuries and VIX are up once again. Fears of nuclear war being exacerbated by resolute threats from Putin and desperate social media pleas by people like Elon Musk are pushing investors toward DXY and US Treasury notes and bonds and away from Risk-On assets. The US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) ordered $300m worth of Nplate (a radiation sickness drug) as part of an ongoing long term defense plan against the threat of nuclear warfare. It's hard not to think that the timing of acquiring this medication vs chemical, biological or infectious disease medication isn't coincidental; but the HHS said it was just a routine purchase as part of a longer term plan. In the short to medium term it's reasonable to expect more supply chain disruptions as a result of Russia's war with Ukraine worsening rather than improving. OPEC+ cutting oil production heading into the European winter is another factor that contributes to the seemingly inevitable decline into a global recession. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.*
Price is currently trending down at ~$3615 and is still technically testing both $3658 minor support + the minor descending trendline from July 2021 at ~$3635 as support, if it breaks below then the next support (minor) is at $3617. Volume is currently Moderate (high) and on track to favor sellers for a third consecutive session if it can close today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3805, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 36 and is still technically testing 38 support, if it loses this level then the next support is at the uptrend line from August 2015 at ~32. Stochastic is currently bearish for the second consecutive session and is trending down at 63 as it approaches 48 support. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending down at -85 after being rejected at the uptrend line from March 2020 as resistance at ~-83; if it breaks below -87 it would be a bearish crossover. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 28 as Price is falling, this is bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here at the minor descending trendline from July 2021 (~$3635) then it will have to close above $3658 minor support if it's going to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance. However, if Price continues to breakdown here, it will likely test $3517 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3658.
*Equities, Futures, Cryptos, Metals, Energy, GBPUSD, and EURUSD are all down while DXY, US Treasuries and VIX are up once again. Fears of nuclear war being exacerbated by resolute threats from Putin and desperate social media pleas by people like Elon Musk are pushing investors toward DXY and US Treasury notes and bonds and away from Risk-On assets. The US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) ordered $300m worth of Nplate (a radiation sickness drug) as part of an ongoing long term defense plan against the threat of nuclear warfare. It's hard not to think that the timing of acquiring this medication vs chemical, biological or infectious disease medication isn't coincidental; but the HHS said it was just a routine purchase as part of a longer term plan. In the short to medium term it's reasonable to expect more supply chain disruptions as a result of Russia's war with Ukraine worsening rather than improving. OPEC+ cutting oil production heading into the European winter is another factor that contributes to the seemingly inevitable decline into a global recession. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.*
Price is currently trending down at ~$3615 and is still technically testing both $3658 minor support + the minor descending trendline from July 2021 at ~$3635 as support, if it breaks below then the next support (minor) is at $3617. Volume is currently Moderate (high) and on track to favor sellers for a third consecutive session if it can close today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3805, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 36 and is still technically testing 38 support, if it loses this level then the next support is at the uptrend line from August 2015 at ~32. Stochastic is currently bearish for the second consecutive session and is trending down at 63 as it approaches 48 support. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending down at -85 after being rejected at the uptrend line from March 2020 as resistance at ~-83; if it breaks below -87 it would be a bearish crossover. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 28 as Price is falling, this is bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here at the minor descending trendline from July 2021 (~$3635) then it will have to close above $3658 minor support if it's going to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance. However, if Price continues to breakdown here, it will likely test $3517 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3658.