SPX - Weekly Chart TA, Sunday, September 24th, 2023
Based on the 3 major time fibs, I am looking for a major trend into October 18th-Nov 8th period.
The 2022 High/Low time fib 2.0 was one day off from the 2023 high.
(Progress/Stalemate over the Government Shutdown can affect that thesis of timing)
Longs:
Last week's selloff left a gap above at 4401 -
Bulls want to regain the 100 day SMA. That would be the main target for a short term bounce, with the gap fill and then a test of the falling 50 day SMA. That would put us back in the value area from the July highs, and the VAH from the March lows to that same July high. Current reading is oversold on the daily, so a ST bounce is expected.
Gravity Points are stacked in the HTF Supply zone, so major resistance for LT Bulls to get through.
Shorts:
Any bounce this week will be met with bears trying to STR. They will want to see the 100 day SMA act as resistance, and will likely see more shorts step in at the gap fill & the 4000 Psych level. A failure to regain those levels should be met with increase selling and a drop below the 4300 level.
If Bears can flip the 4300 into resistance, the move to the May gap fill (4232) should be swift. I would look for Shorts to then peal positions in the HTF Demand zone from 4232 to the .382 H/L fib at 4180. The 200 day SMA is sitting in the demand zone, acting as potential added support.
LONG TERM THESIS: I am expecting the bear pressure to be in control into October. If I had to make a bet, I would look for the higher Demand Zone to be tested shortly, with a test down to the lower HTF Demand zone as a possibility before an EOY rally.
Based on the 3 major time fibs, I am looking for a major trend into October 18th-Nov 8th period.
The 2022 High/Low time fib 2.0 was one day off from the 2023 high.
(Progress/Stalemate over the Government Shutdown can affect that thesis of timing)
Longs:
Last week's selloff left a gap above at 4401 -
Bulls want to regain the 100 day SMA. That would be the main target for a short term bounce, with the gap fill and then a test of the falling 50 day SMA. That would put us back in the value area from the July highs, and the VAH from the March lows to that same July high. Current reading is oversold on the daily, so a ST bounce is expected.
Gravity Points are stacked in the HTF Supply zone, so major resistance for LT Bulls to get through.
Shorts:
Any bounce this week will be met with bears trying to STR. They will want to see the 100 day SMA act as resistance, and will likely see more shorts step in at the gap fill & the 4000 Psych level. A failure to regain those levels should be met with increase selling and a drop below the 4300 level.
If Bears can flip the 4300 into resistance, the move to the May gap fill (4232) should be swift. I would look for Shorts to then peal positions in the HTF Demand zone from 4232 to the .382 H/L fib at 4180. The 200 day SMA is sitting in the demand zone, acting as potential added support.
LONG TERM THESIS: I am expecting the bear pressure to be in control into October. If I had to make a bet, I would look for the higher Demand Zone to be tested shortly, with a test down to the lower HTF Demand zone as a possibility before an EOY rally.