S&P MAJOR Pivot Point back to 2009 LOW - LOWER Prices likely!!
Markets are at MAJOR Pivot point around this Trend Line connecting 2009 GFC Low at 666 to today's CLOSE and last DECEMBER 2022 High.
Markets typically get rejected off this resistance and have been rejected every time since 2009 EXCEPT when we had LOW Interest Rates + PPP after Covid. That is ONLY time markets broke ABOVE this line. We broke Below this line in 2022 drop and its proven to be a major pivot point with prices struggling to stay above it. Most recently Price was rejected from this line in Dec 2022. We are retesting it again after Breaking the Downtrend Line from 2022 that everyone thinks means that we now have a "melt up".
Current S&P Price is at May 2021 levels when we had ZERO Interest Rates and PPP. We are ON this Resistance/Pivot Line. CPI Data comes out in the morning.
Probabilities suggest the market gets rejected and goes LOWER not higher. Despite the break in downtrend.
For those of you that think Breaking a down trend and melt up is imminent go back and look at S&P chart in March - May 2008. The SAME Exact pattern as is being formed today occurred before the market tanked lower for next 12 months from May 2008 to 2009 low.
Trade what you see...
Markets typically get rejected off this resistance and have been rejected every time since 2009 EXCEPT when we had LOW Interest Rates + PPP after Covid. That is ONLY time markets broke ABOVE this line. We broke Below this line in 2022 drop and its proven to be a major pivot point with prices struggling to stay above it. Most recently Price was rejected from this line in Dec 2022. We are retesting it again after Breaking the Downtrend Line from 2022 that everyone thinks means that we now have a "melt up".
Current S&P Price is at May 2021 levels when we had ZERO Interest Rates and PPP. We are ON this Resistance/Pivot Line. CPI Data comes out in the morning.
Probabilities suggest the market gets rejected and goes LOWER not higher. Despite the break in downtrend.
For those of you that think Breaking a down trend and melt up is imminent go back and look at S&P chart in March - May 2008. The SAME Exact pattern as is being formed today occurred before the market tanked lower for next 12 months from May 2008 to 2009 low.
Trade what you see...
Trade active:
Short positions at the 4130 level playing out as shown above. Expect a drop to retest the Oct Lows. I actually have downside target price around 3400 which is substantially lower than Oct lows.
Comment:
Retesting this line again. Likely will FAIL again. Expecting MAJOR downside correction and possibly one more bounce to test 3rd time before failing completely. This RED line is the THE LINE IN THE SAND
Comment:
Looks like this is 3rd test of the LINE IN THE SAND. Bearish Divergences all over the charts suggesting this test will FAIL. Downside is the most likely path. Peak of the LINE currently is at 4225 on S&P. Planning to ADD to SHORTS at that level.