Will the NZD/USD still be able hold above the 0.60 lvl?
The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reinvoked the power of the interest rate hikes to continue the battle in bringing inflation down. This news push the USD near the 106 lvl and hit the NZD/USD, pulling price below the 0.61 lvl. This was a hit to my position, but I ok with the floating loss currently. In order to reduce my risk, I added a stop at 0.60 because my thought is, if price pushes below the 0.60 lvl and holds by the end of the week, then I don't think I wrong on my R/A on this pair; I am just early. What I am going to do if I do get stopped out, I would wait a few days, see if price is still pushing lower, and then start building my position again. My objective is to have a max position before price pushes above the 0.65 lvl, so getting into a position below the 0.60 lvl, I think is an opportunity. There is also the thought of waiting until the USD NFP and CPI are released and the FED Rate Hike, as this could push the NZD/USD even further down.
I do need to work on my conviction and hope lvl. My hope lvl is around 55% and my conviction lvl is less then 50%. Since that is the case, I am not going to add anymore positions unless I am able to get my conviction lvl to 60%. I am still thinking in the near to longer term, price on the NZD/USD will push higher, but these two - three weeks are going to cause a lot of volatility.
I have another previous published thought on the NZD utilizing the Monthly chart. I wanted to add the NZD/USD update on the daily chart also, in order to see the daily moves in the market and see if my plan pans out.
Again, this is what I am thinking of doing and I am ok with taking the risk. Conduct your own analysis and take on the risk that feels comfortable to you.
Y'all have some good trading out there.
I do need to work on my conviction and hope lvl. My hope lvl is around 55% and my conviction lvl is less then 50%. Since that is the case, I am not going to add anymore positions unless I am able to get my conviction lvl to 60%. I am still thinking in the near to longer term, price on the NZD/USD will push higher, but these two - three weeks are going to cause a lot of volatility.
I have another previous published thought on the NZD utilizing the Monthly chart. I wanted to add the NZD/USD update on the daily chart also, in order to see the daily moves in the market and see if my plan pans out.
Again, this is what I am thinking of doing and I am ok with taking the risk. Conduct your own analysis and take on the risk that feels comfortable to you.
Y'all have some good trading out there.
Comment:
Price is holding above the 0.60 and is attempting to stay above the 0.62. Price might be able to climb higher, as the banking contagion did not push price lower (it didn't even break the 0.61). This pair is my focus, but my conviction isn't there to be able to trade this pair correct or is warranting me to get into a position. I am going to hold off for now and see what happens on Monday. I still think this pair has a high probability that it will push higher.
Comment:
This week I am thinking of getting into the NZD/USD and building up a portfolio to support it. Price is pulling back and if price is able to push below the 0.6150 lvl (by nighttime, that is when I do my planning and start getting into trades), I will start building my portfolio. My portfolio is going to consistent of the NZD (20k-25k), EUR (10k), GBP (5k), and the EHUF (2.5k). The NZD and GBP are natural hedges and the EHUF will used used if rollover is too far in the negative. If things work out and price is moving in my favor, I am looking at building the NZD up to 100k, the EUR up to 50k, GBP up to 30k, and the EHUF, maybe to around 10k. But once I am out of the NZD if price hits my price of 0.70, I will then start looking at the GBP more and the GCAD for the downside.