As projected at the beginning of the year, the bull market began after the third week of 2023, shortly after crossing above the secondary downtrend line. It appears that this bull market may be nearing its end, and there is a possibility that it will enter into a range for the remainder of the year.
Here is a hypothetical scenario based on the current data and developments:
1) Inflation may not reach its target of 2% in a sustained manner
2) If interest rates remain elevated
3i) It may trigger another banking crisis
3ii) The March banking crisis was caused by higher rates
3iii) Most banks today are still at March level
4i) Why a greater risk of a recession?
4ii) Current GDP is trending downward
4iii) Current export numbers are trending downward
4iv) Both numbers are below pre-covid levels
Reference for trading in Nasdaq:
CME E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Minimum fluctuation
0.25 index points = $5.00
CME Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Minimum fluctuation
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com/cme/
Here is a hypothetical scenario based on the current data and developments:
1) Inflation may not reach its target of 2% in a sustained manner
2) If interest rates remain elevated
3i) It may trigger another banking crisis
3ii) The March banking crisis was caused by higher rates
3iii) Most banks today are still at March level
4i) Why a greater risk of a recession?
4ii) Current GDP is trending downward
4iii) Current export numbers are trending downward
4iv) Both numbers are below pre-covid levels
Reference for trading in Nasdaq:
CME E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Minimum fluctuation
0.25 index points = $5.00
CME Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Minimum fluctuation
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com/cme/
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