Nasdaq Intraday Review – Wednesday 10 Jan 2024
I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis around 5:20am GMT.
At time of analysis, the following was noted:
Buy fib was drawn early this morning from swing low at A to swing high at B1…and then later in the day to swing high at B2. Retracement levels written in purple for B2 fib.
Fib levels were relatively close together with less than 600 pips separating the 0.383 and 0.618 levels. This means that one can usually go in with your full lot size because the potential draw down can be handled.
Market was consolidating into a descending triangle market pattern on both the 1H TF and the 4H TF (with double tops inside). This market pattern usually breaks down.
Bears indeed managed to break the neckline of the double top (shown with orange lines) and market moved down the same distance as the height of the pattern. Here, price found dynamic support from 1H 20 EMA and moved back up to test neckline of the 1H / 4H double top.
I usually like to be part of the restest of the neckline which is in the same direction as the overall trend (bullish in this case). This morning however, I was expecting market to move down further but when I saw the reaction to the 1H EMA, I entered.
I entered half my usual position size as a buy at C. (half because I was really expecting market to move down at least to pivot point).
Confirmations:
- Market Pattern: Bears had broken the neckline of the double top formed on the 1H & 4H TF. Price had travelled the profit target distance and was about to test the neckline of the market pattern in the same direction as the overall trend. Price was moving up and had closed above the neckline at C. on the 15min TF. Price had also broken back into the descending triangle indicating that the break out down was a fake out.
- Fib: None – this is the reason I entered only half a position because the 0.382 retracement level was at the pivot point this morning so this little market pattern break out was a very shallow retracement.
- Candle sticks & trend: The candle at C. on the 15min TF closed green forming a higher high after a series of lower highs indicating that the temporary down trend was possibly over (fully confirmed by the next green 15min candle which closed above the temporary orange down trend line).
- S&R: 1H 20 EMA providing dynamic support
Mental stop was placed at think pink line, because if price did not retrace by the 0.618 fib level and closed below the previous D neckline then a sell would ensue. I would have entered another half position of price moved down.
Market moved up 750 pips from my position and I secured at entry.
I knew a real fight between bears and bulls would take place at the purple down trend line. This line is draw on the wicks of the D candles from the D Double top.
The move I wanted to secure today was the bulls breaking this trend line. So I didn’t take profit at peak B2.
Price came down and took me out at entry.
After judging price action just before & during market open I re-entered at D.
I am now secured at entry and holding in case bulls break through the purple trend line.
So I will be out at entry with nothing or if the bulls break through, I suspect there will be a big move up and KA-CHING!!
Fingers crossed! Hope you had a good trading day too!
What could I have done differently:
So I was trying to adjust my stop loss of my C. position and all of a sudden my trade closed and also my swing trade from Sunday evening.
My C. trade was close to entry anyway so I wasn’t too worried about that.
But my swing trade closing by accident caused serious PANIC IN THE DISCO!!!!!
I usually set my profit to show as pips in MT5 (it’s a strategy to help me deal with greed and fear). So the whole time I was seeing my swing trade profit in pips.
When it suddenly closed, I saw the massive monetary profit in my equity and it totally threw me off! I was like “should I just keep the profit?? It’s so much money!”….”Maybe this happened for a reason”….”This wasn’t my plan at all but maybe now that I have the money banked I should just keep it”.
Eventually, after I calmed down, I re-entered my "swing trade". So now my swing trade will be two trades that I will combine in my trading journal and view ultimately as one trade. It was never my plan to close that swing trade at that moment. I decided to stick to my plan and even if market draws down and I ultimately make a smaller profit from this swing trade, it’s more important that I stick to my plan and close my trades when I want to close them based on price action.
So take a moment to think about what you will do if a trade closes by accident….having thought it through before the time will assist you in those critical moments when it happens to you.
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis around 5:20am GMT.
At time of analysis, the following was noted:
Buy fib was drawn early this morning from swing low at A to swing high at B1…and then later in the day to swing high at B2. Retracement levels written in purple for B2 fib.
Fib levels were relatively close together with less than 600 pips separating the 0.383 and 0.618 levels. This means that one can usually go in with your full lot size because the potential draw down can be handled.
Market was consolidating into a descending triangle market pattern on both the 1H TF and the 4H TF (with double tops inside). This market pattern usually breaks down.
Bears indeed managed to break the neckline of the double top (shown with orange lines) and market moved down the same distance as the height of the pattern. Here, price found dynamic support from 1H 20 EMA and moved back up to test neckline of the 1H / 4H double top.
I usually like to be part of the restest of the neckline which is in the same direction as the overall trend (bullish in this case). This morning however, I was expecting market to move down further but when I saw the reaction to the 1H EMA, I entered.
I entered half my usual position size as a buy at C. (half because I was really expecting market to move down at least to pivot point).
Confirmations:
- Market Pattern: Bears had broken the neckline of the double top formed on the 1H & 4H TF. Price had travelled the profit target distance and was about to test the neckline of the market pattern in the same direction as the overall trend. Price was moving up and had closed above the neckline at C. on the 15min TF. Price had also broken back into the descending triangle indicating that the break out down was a fake out.
- Fib: None – this is the reason I entered only half a position because the 0.382 retracement level was at the pivot point this morning so this little market pattern break out was a very shallow retracement.
- Candle sticks & trend: The candle at C. on the 15min TF closed green forming a higher high after a series of lower highs indicating that the temporary down trend was possibly over (fully confirmed by the next green 15min candle which closed above the temporary orange down trend line).
- S&R: 1H 20 EMA providing dynamic support
Mental stop was placed at think pink line, because if price did not retrace by the 0.618 fib level and closed below the previous D neckline then a sell would ensue. I would have entered another half position of price moved down.
Market moved up 750 pips from my position and I secured at entry.
I knew a real fight between bears and bulls would take place at the purple down trend line. This line is draw on the wicks of the D candles from the D Double top.
The move I wanted to secure today was the bulls breaking this trend line. So I didn’t take profit at peak B2.
Price came down and took me out at entry.
After judging price action just before & during market open I re-entered at D.
I am now secured at entry and holding in case bulls break through the purple trend line.
So I will be out at entry with nothing or if the bulls break through, I suspect there will be a big move up and KA-CHING!!
Fingers crossed! Hope you had a good trading day too!
What could I have done differently:
So I was trying to adjust my stop loss of my C. position and all of a sudden my trade closed and also my swing trade from Sunday evening.
My C. trade was close to entry anyway so I wasn’t too worried about that.
But my swing trade closing by accident caused serious PANIC IN THE DISCO!!!!!
I usually set my profit to show as pips in MT5 (it’s a strategy to help me deal with greed and fear). So the whole time I was seeing my swing trade profit in pips.
When it suddenly closed, I saw the massive monetary profit in my equity and it totally threw me off! I was like “should I just keep the profit?? It’s so much money!”….”Maybe this happened for a reason”….”This wasn’t my plan at all but maybe now that I have the money banked I should just keep it”.
Eventually, after I calmed down, I re-entered my "swing trade". So now my swing trade will be two trades that I will combine in my trading journal and view ultimately as one trade. It was never my plan to close that swing trade at that moment. I decided to stick to my plan and even if market draws down and I ultimately make a smaller profit from this swing trade, it’s more important that I stick to my plan and close my trades when I want to close them based on price action.
So take a moment to think about what you will do if a trade closes by accident….having thought it through before the time will assist you in those critical moments when it happens to you.
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average