Hi everyone!!
I just want to share my thoughts about what s happening, while i'm seeing everybody just posting the technical analysis of gold, but no one is building a theory based on correlations.
We all know that US Dollar moves exactly in the inverse way of the gold. (The gold moves also even in a invese way to the US10YearsTBOND)
Ok, that s clear.
Now recap of the situation: did you notice those three tops DXY reached till mid january?
Do you know about the 1,9 Trillion dollars stimulus that s coming?
Never heard about the word: inflation?
Well, in my opinion, connecting those simples points we have a clear idea of what is happening.
AGAINST DOLLAR
- US Dollar tried 3 times to go up FAILING, creating a possible DOWNTREND pattern.
- Also EUR/USD failed 3 times going down, opening for a strong scenario above 1,21 (representing the 57% of the DXY this move would weight)
- The 1,9 trillion stimulus is coming and the inflation just started, two more steps for a WEAKER dollar.
SUPPORTING THE GOLD
- Gold is always, and always will be the shelter asset, banks buy it every damned month, do you know in the last year (due to the rebound from coronavirus) banks bought something like 60% less gold than usually? This means it was underbought (DO YOU BELIVE IT?)
- The great affluence of retail traders during this year led the volatily to be really high so i wouldn t watch at the exactly point on technical analysis, as i see a support at 1760.
- Many analysts said that gold is underrated and it would cost more than 2100 dollar over the year.
- Jelwery markets bought at least 50% less gold than other years (SO AGAINST IT WAS UNDERBOUGHT...INCREDIBLE)
- Inflation is coming so Raw Materials benefits from this because of the USD at the denominator
- Inflation is coming and Gold strongly benefits from this (historically) as a shelter against dollar weakness
TO THINK ABOUT
-Well then, just go back and take a look to the past: 2008 was an year of crisis, then gold moved upward till 2011.
- 2020 was an year of crisis --> suggestions? :)
I hope my analysis was clear, anyway of course this is just my vision of the thing. Hope to have some constructive comment below to have a good talk about this, tell me what you think folks!!
I just want to share my thoughts about what s happening, while i'm seeing everybody just posting the technical analysis of gold, but no one is building a theory based on correlations.
We all know that US Dollar moves exactly in the inverse way of the gold. (The gold moves also even in a invese way to the US10YearsTBOND)
Ok, that s clear.
Now recap of the situation: did you notice those three tops DXY reached till mid january?
Do you know about the 1,9 Trillion dollars stimulus that s coming?
Never heard about the word: inflation?
Well, in my opinion, connecting those simples points we have a clear idea of what is happening.
AGAINST DOLLAR
- US Dollar tried 3 times to go up FAILING, creating a possible DOWNTREND pattern.
- Also EUR/USD failed 3 times going down, opening for a strong scenario above 1,21 (representing the 57% of the DXY this move would weight)
- The 1,9 trillion stimulus is coming and the inflation just started, two more steps for a WEAKER dollar.
SUPPORTING THE GOLD
- Gold is always, and always will be the shelter asset, banks buy it every damned month, do you know in the last year (due to the rebound from coronavirus) banks bought something like 60% less gold than usually? This means it was underbought (DO YOU BELIVE IT?)
- The great affluence of retail traders during this year led the volatily to be really high so i wouldn t watch at the exactly point on technical analysis, as i see a support at 1760.
- Many analysts said that gold is underrated and it would cost more than 2100 dollar over the year.
- Jelwery markets bought at least 50% less gold than other years (SO AGAINST IT WAS UNDERBOUGHT...INCREDIBLE)
- Inflation is coming so Raw Materials benefits from this because of the USD at the denominator
- Inflation is coming and Gold strongly benefits from this (historically) as a shelter against dollar weakness
TO THINK ABOUT
-Well then, just go back and take a look to the past: 2008 was an year of crisis, then gold moved upward till 2011.
- 2020 was an year of crisis --> suggestions? :)
I hope my analysis was clear, anyway of course this is just my vision of the thing. Hope to have some constructive comment below to have a good talk about this, tell me what you think folks!!