dollar index - h4 chart - selling on rallies due to dollars bearish trend. 3 drive reversal setup giving us confirmation of the weekly resistance holding
USDOLLAR's exchange rate reached the end of the adjustment level. This level is 11606. I expect a rise from this level. The rise height may be equal to the size of the previous wave (0A). If the idea is correct, the primary target price is 11865.
January has seen a collapse in the Dollar. The monthly bear div that formed over last October and November has resolved.
Yet, we are in a confluence of horizontal and trend support. Its possible a bounce could materialize here. But...
It will be really interesting to see how DXY handles the red resistance line above. It would be textbook for price to bounce, ...
Short to 1306, rejected trend line which has been in place since 2018. Last time it rejected this trend line in September 2017, it dropped from 1355 to 1250. Last time before that was July 2016, where it went from 1375 down to 1125!! Look at the chart. RSI High, could be higher. If Gold breaks this CTL I predict 1355 up, next stop up would be 1375..Short for now, ...
DXY Daily:
- Inverted Head and Shoulders on the daily. Would like to see a break of the neckline before making any big decisions on the USD Pairs
- Break and Retest of the descending channel
- Counter trendline being respected well currently
- Completion of right shoulder matches up with 0.5 / 61.8 fib retracement
Dollar index broke a key monthly support level last month and is currently trading below this monthly resistance on bigger timeframes. In this setup, I see a bearish pull back on the daily time frame and a good time to buy other currencies and gold as they are all on their pull backs as well technically.
Dollar Index DXY is sitting on critical support, a break below 91.00 opens the door to 88.50 which is a confluence of:
1) 61.8 fib of the from 78.97 to 103.57 = 88.50
2) it is also the 1.272 fib retracement from 91.98 to 103.57
3) 88.50 area has also acted as previous resistance on 2 occasions and is the break out point
I would expect a pullback to 95.5, where the 50 EMA is, 61.8% Fibbs, also 23.6% Fibbs on larger time frame and 10 EMA on Weekly time frame.
From there we could see leg lower to 92 or move higher to 96.5.
Dollar Index Monthly - Structure speaks for itself. Big moves to the downside expected. This correlates well with global indices and Oil they are also indicating a big correction on larger timeframes technically.
Ok, now I am agree with H&S on DXY
I am bearish now
Neck line is at 99 level, profit target approximately around 96.6 area.
Bearish outlook below 101.38, 99.85 and 99.
Expectations are for the BoE to hold rates and maintain their current QE programme, while increasing their growth estimates (HSBC are expecting 2017 GDP to be revised higher to 1.7% from 1.4%). The reason for this upgrade is the slew of positive data we have seen since the last meeting. This month alone both GDP and CPI beat expectations on a Y/Y and Q/Q basis, ...
