darcsherry

GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up

darcsherry Updated   
OANDA:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
The Pound Sterling (GBP) gains strength as market sentiment improves, driven by a growing appetite for risk-sensitive assets. This sentiment is reinforced by soft wage growth and a sharp rise in the Unemployment Rate reported by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for February.

The outlook for the GBP/USD pair remains positive, with widespread expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates before the Bank of England (BoE), potentially narrowing the policy gap between them for the foreseeable future. While investors anticipate a Fed rate cut in June, the BoE is seen likely to follow suit from August onward.

Despite inflation in the UK remaining higher than other developed countries in the Group of Seven (G-7) nations, driven by robust wage growth, market volatility is anticipated, particularly as expectations for a June rate cut decision by the Fed solidify, following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's less hawkish tone in his recent congressional testimony.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis:
Will the pound continue its trajectory and sustain its momentum above the $1.28000 zone?

The spotlight is on high-impact economic events from the US docket for clues. Brace yourselves as the anticipation and the actual events may trigger sharp price movements that could present incredible trading opportunities.

In this video, we've analyzed the daily and 4-hour timeframes, exploring bullish and bearish sentiments to uncover the most promising trades for the week ahead. We've delved into key levels, trendlines, and support/resistance points, unveiling essential insights into the current market structure.

We are keeping a close eye on the potential range between $1.28000 and $1.28900 where a breakdown or breakdown could incite the next BIG move. It's a decisive structure where both sellers and buyers will be vying for control, and how the market reacts here will set the course for GBPUSD in the upcoming days.

Stay connected and join the conversation in the comment section to stay updated on the latest developments. Thank you for tuning in, and get ready for more enlightening insights into GBPUSD in our upcoming content. Buckle up for a thrilling journey ahead! Happy trading!

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Comment:
Market participants appear to brace themselves for the highly anticipated US CPI report, which is scheduled to be released on Tuesday. In light of the current market conditions, the US Dollar has halted its losing streak, while the GBP/USD pair remains on a positive trajectory.

We're likely to see trading remain within a range today. On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair remains upbeat as market expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates before the Bank of England. Given these recent development, we'll be relying on the newly identified levels on the 1-hour timeframe to guide our trading activities for today.

Good Morning.

Comment:
It's essential to safeguard all sell positions as GBP/USD encounters renewed bearish pressure, edging closer to the week's key level of 1.2800. This pressure stems from a shift in risk sentiment, benefiting the US Dollar. According to recent reports from the UK, the number of people claiming jobless benefits increased by 16.8K in February, compared to just 3.1K in January, slightly below the forecasted 20.3 K.

Currently, the path of least resistance appears to be downwards as investors await the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, which is expected to provide fresh impetus. We'll continue to rely on the chart levels as our guide for today's trading activity.

Good Morning

Trade active:
#GBPUSD

STRUCTURAL UPDATE

Protect all sell positions

Trade active:
All sell positions are still active as the GBP/USD seems to be consolidating yesterday's rebound. The UK reports this morning indicated that the economy expanded by 0.2% in January after a 0.1% contraction in December. Additionally, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production in the UK were reported at -0.2% and 0% respectively.

Despite the mixed economic data from the UK, market participants showed little reaction, causing the GBP/USD to trade within a narrow range below the week's key level at the 1.2800 zone. Currently, the prevailing trend appears bearish as long as the price remains below the descending trendline. It is advisable to secure all sell positions and remain vigilant for potential new trading opportunities.

Good Morning

Trade active:
#GBPUSD

UPDATE

Buy triggered

Trade active:
The buy position established in yesterday's trading session is still active but with a slight loss, as the GBP/USD pair struggles to gain traction around the week's key level of 1.28000. A marginal recovery in the US Dollar and a cautious market sentiment are putting pressure on the pair, while traders await the release of US economic data later in the day. As highlighted in our previous live session, the current setup appears to favor a bullish trend.

The British Pound is expected to receive continued support from the anticipation that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. In contrast, market participants are increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts at its June policy meeting. This, coupled with the prevalent optimistic sentiment surrounding global equity markets, is likely to limit the upside potential for the US Dollar.

Given these factors, we are retaining our bullish bias unless there is a breakdown/retest of the 1.27760 level.

Good Morning

Trade active:
The US Dollar gained momentum following another round of strong inflation data, weighing down the GBP/USD pair amid diminishing expectations of a Fed rate cut in June, driven by upbeat US PPI figures.

This recent development led to an increase in US Treasury bond yields, supported by a generally subdued sentiment in the equity markets, thereby reinforcing the strength of the US Dollar and putting pressure on the Pound Sterling.

Furthermore, market participants are pricing a higher likelihood of the Fed initiating interest rate cuts at the June policy meeting. This sentiment may reinforce a decline in US Treasury bond yields, which may temper bullish bets on the US Dollar. Conversely, expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period could mitigate losses for the GBP/USD pair.

Given the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's rate-cut trajectory, market participants may opt to await further clarity before taking significant positions on the USD. Therefore, attention will remain focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting starting next Tuesday. In the meantime, we'll ensure the protection of all sell positions while using the identified structures on the chart to inform our next steps.

Good Morning

Trade closed manually:
#GBPUSD

STRUCTURAL UPDATE

All sell positions have been closed!


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