darcsherry

GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up

darcsherry Updated   
OANDA:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
The GBPUSD continued its upward momentum, closing the week around 1.27100, a key level for the upcoming week. The Pound's strength is fueled by expectations that the Bank of England will delay rate cuts compared to the Fed and ECB. This sentiment was further supported by a decrease in Treasury yields following Powell's comments about the balanced risks of interest rate hikes. The 10-year notes fell to 4.213%, limiting the US Dollar's momentum. With no major economic releases from the UK in the coming week, the question arises: how will the Pound Sterling perform against the US Dollar?

GBPUSD Technical Analysis:
Will the pound continue its trajectory and sustain its momentum above the $1.27100 zone? The stakes are high, and we're on the edge of our seats!

The spotlight is on high-impact economic events from both the US docket for clues. Brace yourselves as the anticipation and the actual events may trigger sharp price movements that could present incredible trading opportunities.

In this video, we've analyzed the Daily and 4-hour timeframes, exploring bullish and bearish sentiments to uncover the most promising trades for the week ahead. We've delved into key levels, trendlines, and support/resistance points, unveiling essential insights into the current market structure.

We are keeping a close eye on the potential range between $1.27100 and $1.26200 where a consolidation could happen before the next BIG move. It's a decisive structure where both sellers and buyers will be vying for control, and how the market reacts here will set the course for GBPUSD in the upcoming days.

Stay connected and join the conversation in the comment section to stay updated on the latest developments. Thank you for tuning in, and get ready for more enlightening insights into GBPUSD in our upcoming content. Buckle up for a thrilling journey ahead! Happy trading!

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Comment:
In the early hours of the new week, the GBPUSD exhibited volatile price movements, establishing a wide trading range. Notably, the pair is currently trading below our week's key level at 1.2710, as highlighted in the video analysis. Despite this, the downside for GBPUSD may be constrained by prevailing speculation that the Federal Reserve has concluded its tightening cycle, consequently applying downward pressure on the US Dollar.

Our focus remains on the newly identified range, which will be serving as a pivotal reference point today. While the idea of looking out for buying opportunities may be reasonable at this juncture , it is prudent to acknowledge the potential selling opportunity that could arise at the breakdown/retest of the 1.26680 level . This particular level coincides with the support line of the ascending channel identified on the 4-hour time frame. This confluence adds weight to the potential significance of the 1.26680 level and merits consideration for seeking strategic entry points.

Good Morning

Comment:
Trade active:
A sell position triggered at the breakdown of the 1.26680 Level; protect position as we look out for more trading opportunities.

Comment:
#GBPUSD

A sell position triggered at the breakdown of the 1.26680 Level; protect position as we look out for more trading opportunities.

Trade active:
The GBPUSD pair has seen a slight uptick after experiencing some buying interest during the Asian session, aiming to extend the rebound from the 1.26100 level. Expectations of a dovish Fed have led to a decline in US Treasury bond yields, keeping the USD under pressure, which is supporting the GBPUSD pair.

However, it's important to note that the price action has broken below the support line of the ascending channel identified on the 4-hour time frame yesterday, indicating a potential shift in momentum. We are now at a critical point where we will monitor for a potential reversal or retracement within the structure in anticipation of a continuation of the downtrend. In light of this, it's advisable to protect all sell positions.

Good Morning

Trade active:
The US ISM Services PMI for November surpassed market expectations, indicating a stronger growth trend. The focus now turns to this week's US employment data, particularly the ADP Employment Change and Nonfarm Payrolls, as they may provide insights into the future interest rate trajectory. Despite significant buying activity during the Asian session, the Sell position from yesterday remains intact. The slight decline in the US Dollar could potentially benefit the pair, even amidst a cautious market sentiment. Today's attention is directed towards November's ADP job report for guidance. It's important to protect all positions while keeping buying options open, as the newly identified descending trend will guide today's trading session.

Good Morning

Trade active:
The GBPUSD continues its downside momentum, securing a total of 250 pips from four sell positions. The Pound Sterling's decline is supported by a stronger US Dollar, which has been broadly firmer. With no economic data from the UK docket this week, the pair remains influenced by USD price dynamics. On the US economic front, the ADP Employment Change for November grew by 103K, slightly below the market consensus of 130K and down from 106K in October.
Regarding the GBP, the Bank of England Governor mentioned yesterday that UK interest rates will need to remain at current levels for an extended period. The central bank acknowledges potential financial stability risks arising from this stance. The Governor highlighted challenges in the overall risk environment due to China's economic difficulties, potential conflicts in the Middle East, and elevated public debt levels. These factors could exert pressure on the British Pound (GBP) and act as a headwind for the GBPUSD pair. As a response, a new level at 1.25500 has been identified to guide further selling opportunities. However, if the price breakout/retests the descending trendline, we may need to start considering potential buying opportunities.

Good Morning

Trade active:
UPDATE

Just as discussed during our live session this morning; price action breakout/retest both the descending trendline and the 1.258000 to trigger a buy position. Let's hope the momentum is sustained.

Trade active:
After being stopped out of our initial buy position at a loss, a re-entry is on the way. The GBPUSD pair has been consolidating in a tight range of 1.2580 – 1.2605 during the Asian session, with market participants choosing to wait on the sidelines in anticipation of the forthcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Andrew Bailey's recent remarks suggest that the Bank of England is likely to maintain the interest rate at 5.25% not only next week but also through the second quarter of 2024. Today, market participants will be closely watching the US employment data, which is expected to show a 180K increase in Nonfarm Payrolls for November. A stronger-than-expected report could bolster the US Dollar, potentially limiting the upside of the GBPUSD pair. In this regard, we shall closely monitor price action, with the descending trendline serving as a guiding light for today's trading decisions.

Good Morning.


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