GBPUSD - GBP Now Stronger Then The USD?
Analysis:
This has been a beautiful pair to trade recently and now we've got another opportunity setting up. Firstly looking at the chart it's clear to tell that we're in an upwards trend. We're forming higher highs and higher lows which confirms what we're seeing. We also have an upwards trendline which is being respected, again showing us that we're in an upwards trend so we're only interested in long positions. Price has made a move to the downside which may seem bearish, however this is just a pullback in an upwards trend. Where we're at currently looks like a great possible place to enter. We've got a previous area of resistance and as we know resistance often becomes support once broken so we expect that this will happen this time around. This isn't just our only confluence though. At this level we also have the middle between the 50% fib retracement level and the 61.8% fib retracement level, which is often called the "golden zone". All this means is that we expect bullish momentum to be in this area which would in turn push price to the upside making our level more attractive to buy at. To add further bullish strength to this level we also have an upwards trendline. This trendline has been respected multiple times in the past and every time its been touched we've seen strong bullish momentum. With trading history often repeats itself which is why we expect price will respect this upwards trendline again. Finally to further our point on the technical aspect we've been seeing slowing bearish momentum indicating to us that the bears are taking a step back and it's time for the bulls to step in and push price higher. This morning we did have some news come out for the GBP which was worse then expected, however this news isn't comparable to the bullish strength that we have so this doesn't really matter to us. Taking a look at the fundamentals as well we can see that the GBP actually overtook the USD in strength, meaning the GBP is now the 2nd strongest major currency whereas the USD is the 3rd strongest major currency, so this just furthers our bullish thesis, however we still have more bullish confluences to add to our idea. As of the most recent report for institutional positioning for the GBP we saw an increase in short positions of 18K which may seem bearish, however we also saw an increase of 24K long positions so this is very bullish for the GBP. This isn't the same for the USD however. As of the most recent report on institutional positioning for the USD we saw an increase of 7K long positions, but we also saw an increase of 8K short positions, meaning this is bearish for the USD. Overall we have all of our confluences pointing to bullishness on this pair and we're also sat at a strong level which we expect to hold, giving us a strong reason to be bullish!
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you!
Stay Safe - The JPI Team
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
This has been a beautiful pair to trade recently and now we've got another opportunity setting up. Firstly looking at the chart it's clear to tell that we're in an upwards trend. We're forming higher highs and higher lows which confirms what we're seeing. We also have an upwards trendline which is being respected, again showing us that we're in an upwards trend so we're only interested in long positions. Price has made a move to the downside which may seem bearish, however this is just a pullback in an upwards trend. Where we're at currently looks like a great possible place to enter. We've got a previous area of resistance and as we know resistance often becomes support once broken so we expect that this will happen this time around. This isn't just our only confluence though. At this level we also have the middle between the 50% fib retracement level and the 61.8% fib retracement level, which is often called the "golden zone". All this means is that we expect bullish momentum to be in this area which would in turn push price to the upside making our level more attractive to buy at. To add further bullish strength to this level we also have an upwards trendline. This trendline has been respected multiple times in the past and every time its been touched we've seen strong bullish momentum. With trading history often repeats itself which is why we expect price will respect this upwards trendline again. Finally to further our point on the technical aspect we've been seeing slowing bearish momentum indicating to us that the bears are taking a step back and it's time for the bulls to step in and push price higher. This morning we did have some news come out for the GBP which was worse then expected, however this news isn't comparable to the bullish strength that we have so this doesn't really matter to us. Taking a look at the fundamentals as well we can see that the GBP actually overtook the USD in strength, meaning the GBP is now the 2nd strongest major currency whereas the USD is the 3rd strongest major currency, so this just furthers our bullish thesis, however we still have more bullish confluences to add to our idea. As of the most recent report for institutional positioning for the GBP we saw an increase in short positions of 18K which may seem bearish, however we also saw an increase of 24K long positions so this is very bullish for the GBP. This isn't the same for the USD however. As of the most recent report on institutional positioning for the USD we saw an increase of 7K long positions, but we also saw an increase of 8K short positions, meaning this is bearish for the USD. Overall we have all of our confluences pointing to bullishness on this pair and we're also sat at a strong level which we expect to hold, giving us a strong reason to be bullish!
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you!
Stay Safe - The JPI Team
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Trade active:
With our entry criteria being met and our order being filled we are now long expecting to see price continue in this upwards trend as the GBP becomes stronger then the USD.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Trade Closed
(-1R) Lost
After Trade Comments:
This trade was unfortunate for us as it started off really well. Price went a fair bit into profit before we saw some positive USD come in which brought price back down to our entry. Since then we've seen more strength come in for the USD, putting bearish pressure on this pair. With the USD news that came out today, this was the final thing needed to push price down to our stop loss. Whilst this trade looked good at the start, this is why it's so important to not get ahead of yourself. Don't class a trade as a win or a loss until it hits your take profit or stop loss. As we always say, let not focus on our closed trades but instead let's look for the next setup!
Stay Safe - The JPI Team
(-1R) Lost
After Trade Comments:
This trade was unfortunate for us as it started off really well. Price went a fair bit into profit before we saw some positive USD come in which brought price back down to our entry. Since then we've seen more strength come in for the USD, putting bearish pressure on this pair. With the USD news that came out today, this was the final thing needed to push price down to our stop loss. Whilst this trade looked good at the start, this is why it's so important to not get ahead of yourself. Don't class a trade as a win or a loss until it hits your take profit or stop loss. As we always say, let not focus on our closed trades but instead let's look for the next setup!
Stay Safe - The JPI Team
