GBPCAD - Break Of Long Term Trend!
Analysis:
We were looking at this pair not that long ago for long setups, however we didn't get this in the end and price actually broke below our level that we were interested in. Looking at current price action we've now got a bearish outlook on this pair for multiple reasons. As we saw price break our level we are not longer in an upwards trend, meaning that we don't want to be looking for longs but instead we want to be looking for short setups. We're at a very key level which has been tested multiple times and we expect that it will be respected again this time for resistance. We've got added confluences as well which give us more confidence in this setup. Firstly the 50% fib retracement level is at our area which we expect sellers to push price down from so this goes in our favour. Another confluence that we have is the downwards trendline that is present. We expect that price will bounce off of this trendline and continue its move to the downside. Our final technical added confluence we have is the break of a long term upwards trendline. This shows us that the long term trend has been broken and we expect to see a change in the market momentum which goes with our bearish thesis. Fundamentally the GBP is stronger then the CAD so this doesn't go in our favour but like we've said before we expect that oil prices will rise again soon and with this the CAD will also rise. Canada is the 4th largest oil distributer in the world so if oil prices rise so will the CAD. This is why we don't really mind that currently the GBP is stronger then the CAD because we think that this will soon change.
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all.
Stay Safe - JPI
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
We were looking at this pair not that long ago for long setups, however we didn't get this in the end and price actually broke below our level that we were interested in. Looking at current price action we've now got a bearish outlook on this pair for multiple reasons. As we saw price break our level we are not longer in an upwards trend, meaning that we don't want to be looking for longs but instead we want to be looking for short setups. We're at a very key level which has been tested multiple times and we expect that it will be respected again this time for resistance. We've got added confluences as well which give us more confidence in this setup. Firstly the 50% fib retracement level is at our area which we expect sellers to push price down from so this goes in our favour. Another confluence that we have is the downwards trendline that is present. We expect that price will bounce off of this trendline and continue its move to the downside. Our final technical added confluence we have is the break of a long term upwards trendline. This shows us that the long term trend has been broken and we expect to see a change in the market momentum which goes with our bearish thesis. Fundamentally the GBP is stronger then the CAD so this doesn't go in our favour but like we've said before we expect that oil prices will rise again soon and with this the CAD will also rise. Canada is the 4th largest oil distributer in the world so if oil prices rise so will the CAD. This is why we don't really mind that currently the GBP is stronger then the CAD because we think that this will soon change.
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all.
Stay Safe - JPI
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Trade active:
Price has given us our confirmation to enter into this setup so we're currently short GBPCAD waiting for a move to the downside!
Comment:
This trade started off pretty well for us, showing strong rejection from our area however recently with the GBP news that was bullish we've seen price start to reverse on us. Next week will provide a lot more clarity for this trade once we get CPI data and the official bank rates so for now we're just going to let the trade do its thing and see what happens when we get to these news events as they will be major movers for the markets.