EUR/USD Holds Steady as Weaker USD Offsets Disappointing Data

EUR/USD Holds Steady as Weaker USD Offsets Disappointing Data


The EUR/USD pair is showing resilience above the 1.0500 level, finding support from a weakened US Dollar (USD) and softer-than-expected labor market data. As traders keep a close eye on economic indicators and central bank policies, the currency pair appears poised for potential volatility in the coming days. In this article, we'll delve into the factors influencing the EUR/USD exchange rate and what to watch out for in the near term.

A Weaker US Dollar

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's value against a basket of foreign currencies, has retraced from recent highs and currently hovers around 106.77. This retreat is partly responsible for the EUR/USD pair's slight recovery, with the pair trading near 1.0505, representing a 0.03% gain for the day.

US Private Payrolls Disappoint

On Thursday, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report revealed that US private payrolls for September rose by 89,000, a significant drop from the previous reading of 180,000 and well below the estimated 153,000. This figure marks the lowest level since January 2021. Additionally, the US ISM Services PMI dipped to 53.6 in September, down from 54.5 in August, meeting market expectations.

Traders are now eagerly awaiting the US Nonfarm Payrolls data scheduled for release on Friday. A weaker-than-expected report could potentially weigh down the Greenback against its currency counterparts, offering support to the EUR/USD pair.

European Central Bank (ECB) Policy Outlook

Market expectations suggest that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain its interest rates in the upcoming meeting. ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno noted that inflation in the Euro area was declining at a faster rate than its rise. He indicated that the rate cycle might have concluded given the present conditions. Meanwhile, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos emphasized the bank's commitment to a data-dependent approach.

Disappointing Eurozone Data

Eurozone Retail Sales data for August showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, following a 1% drop in the previous reading, falling short of expectations of a 0.3% decline. On a monthly basis, the figure fell by 1.2%, compared to a 0.1% decrease in the prior period. Additionally, the Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.6%, in line with market consensus.

Upcoming Market Events

Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor German trade data due on Thursday, as well as the US weekly Jobless Claims. Attention will then shift to the highly-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report scheduled for release on Friday. These events have the potential to inject volatility into the market, and traders will be actively seeking trading opportunities surrounding the EUR/USD pair.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair is treading water, holding firm above the 1.0500 level, primarily due to a weaker US Dollar and softer US economic data. The currency pair's future trajectory will be shaped by the outcome of upcoming economic releases and central bank policy decisions. Traders should remain vigilant and ready to adapt to potential shifts in market sentiment as they navigate the EUR/USD landscape in the days to come.


Our preference

Short positions below 1.05550 with targets at 1.0660 & 1.0400 in extension.