EURUSD Will the Fed's unchanged rate pressure the pair more?

The EURUSD pair is extending its downtrend within the 1-month Channel Down and basically this is a quick update to our most recent analysis (January 19, see chart below) on the 1D time-frame:


Following the Fed Rate Decision yesterday, which left it unchanged at 5.50% and made clear they are in no rush to cut rates, we think it would be helpful to look at the 4H time-frame again and identify additional trade opportunities.

Based on the comparison with the previous Bearish Leg (dotted Channel Down, July - September 2023) of the long-term Channel Down (blue), yesterday's rejection on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) puts the price action on a similar level as August 22 2023. This suggests that after this rejection is completed, we will get one final rebound that shouldn't break the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and which should be the final sell opportunity before testing the 1W MA200 (yellow trend-line) and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.

Perhaps the ideal signal to enter this additional medium-term sell, would be when the 4H RSI turns overbought again at 70.00, similar to the August 30 (Lower) High. As you can see on the chart, our sell trading plan has Target 1 at 1.07500 and Target 2 at 1.06500 (1W MA200 contact).


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