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OANDA:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar


Following Wednesday's upsurge, EURUSD turned south on Thursday and closed the day deep in negative territory. The pair stays on the back foot early Friday and trades within a touching distance of 1.0800.

The renewed US Dollar (USD) strength forced EURUSD to make a sharp U-turn on Thursday. The S&P Global PMI surveys from the US showed that the business activity in the private sector continued to expand at a healthy pace in early March, with the Composite PMI arriving at 52.2.

Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is down nearly 1% on the day below 4.25%. In case US yields continue to edge lower ahead of the weekend, the USD could find it difficult to preserve its bullish momentum and help EURUSD limits its losses.


The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart dropped below 40 and EURUSD closed the last 4-hour candle below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).

1.0800 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as key support for EURUSD . In case the pair drops below that level and confirms it as resistance, 1.0750 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) could be seen as the next bearish target.




GBPUSD came under heavy bearish pressure on Thursday and lost more than 1% on a daily basis for the first time since October. The pair continues to push lower on Friday and was last seen losing more than 0.5% below 1.2600.

The Bank of England maintained the bank rate at 5.25% as widely anticipated. The policy statement revealed that seven policymakers voted in favor of a hold, while one policymaker wanted to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points. The BoE refrained from offering any clues regarding the timing of the policy pivot.



The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart declined below 30 on Friday, pointing to oversold conditions.

The pair was last seen trading below 1.2600, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average is located. In case the pair recovers above this level and stabilizes there, sellers could be discouraged. In this scenario, the pair could extend its correction toward 1.2670-1.2680 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest uptrend, 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart).

On the downside, 1.2550 (beginning point of the uptrend) aligns as important support before 1.2500 (psychological level).

Forex Market Observer

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