EUR/USD Slips as Investors Await US Jobs Report 1.06400 Target

EUR/USD slipped slightly lower after briefly touching the 1.0800 level on Thursday as investors adopted a cautious approach before the eagerly-awaited May jobs report from the US. This report carries significant weight as it has the potential to impact the market's assessment of the next interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The currency pair remains within a bearish channel, and our next target for EUR could be the support area around 1.06400.

On Thursday, the financial markets continued to be influenced by dovish expectations surrounding the Fed, leading to downward pressure on US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar (USD). The US Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the initial estimate of first-quarter Unit Labor Costs, lowering it from 6.3% to 4.2%. Additionally, Patrick Harker, President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, reiterated his belief that it is time for the central bank to take a pause in its monetary policy.

The forecast for Nonfarm Payrolls in May is an increase of 190,000, following the better-than-expected rise of 253,000 recorded in April. The Unemployment Rate is expected to rise slightly from 3.4% to 3.5%, while the annual wage inflation, measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, is anticipated to remain steady at 4.4%.

According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the market currently assigns a 71.5% probability to the Fed maintaining the key rate at 5%-5.25% in June. This positioning suggests that if the labor market data confirms a pause in the Fed's tightening cycle at the upcoming meeting, the USD is likely to weaken further. To realize this scenario, a disappointing NFP figure at or below 150,000 and softer wage inflation data may be necessary.

Conversely, if NFP shows a rise of 250,000 or more in May, investors could reconsider the possibility of another 25 basis points rate hike. In that case, the USD could strengthen, resulting in a bearish turn for EUR/USD.

It is important to note that the Fed's blackout period will commence on Saturday, during which Fed policymakers may make statements to guide market expectations, potentially increasing volatility leading up to the weekend.

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