EURUSD 4H Death Cross and CPI turning it bearish.

The EURUSD pair formed a Death Cross on the 4H chart, the first such formation since August 22 2022. Coupled with a higher than expected CPI today and the fact that the price closed below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since November 03 2022, makes this potentially bearish for the next 10-15 days.

The confirmation to sell however will be below yesterday's low and the target 1.0470 (top of Support Zone 2), as we have to account for the fact that on the short-term the Death Cross can deliver a counter trend rally, similar to what happened in August (see chart on the right). In fact the 4H Golden Cross used to delived a sell-off, while the Death Cross a rally. Consider however that the market was on a long-term downtrend at the time. Still, if we break today's High, we will buy targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci level (same as on September 12 2022) and then sell heavily towards Support Zone 2.

The RSI is on a huge bearish divergence (Lower Lows).


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