The EURO has rosen up to 1,24 USD. But still it had been in the peak of the triangle. The upper line coming from was formed by the lows in 2010 (june) and 2012 (july), the lower line is an ascending trend line; the beginning of this trend in 2017 (march).
A third line crossed the peak - a swing trend line at 1.23$.
The fight between bulls and bears around this line has now be won by the bears. And this was nearly predictable, because of the direction of RSI and MACD. Both going down since feb 2018.
There have been speculation why the EURO was so strong to USD and some thought it might the beginning of a de-dollarization.
In my mind this could happen in the future, but actually more facts ar pro Dollar than EURO, especially the interest rate. Also the problems within the EURO-Zone are not solved at all. Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy are states with hight debt and no concept to solve this challenge.
If there is no change in money policy in the EURO-Zone (zero interest rate / quantitaive easing) the EURO should lose its strength and go deeper - in the long run to 1.14$. (fib retracement 38,2%)
I stay to this analysis even if EURO regains force for a while and would test the upper limit of the long descending trend channel.
Only in the case that EURO breaks through this limit to the top this analysis would be false.
A third line crossed the peak - a swing trend line at 1.23$.
The fight between bulls and bears around this line has now be won by the bears. And this was nearly predictable, because of the direction of RSI and MACD. Both going down since feb 2018.
There have been speculation why the EURO was so strong to USD and some thought it might the beginning of a de-dollarization.
In my mind this could happen in the future, but actually more facts ar pro Dollar than EURO, especially the interest rate. Also the problems within the EURO-Zone are not solved at all. Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy are states with hight debt and no concept to solve this challenge.
If there is no change in money policy in the EURO-Zone (zero interest rate / quantitaive easing) the EURO should lose its strength and go deeper - in the long run to 1.14$. (fib retracement 38,2%)
I stay to this analysis even if EURO regains force for a while and would test the upper limit of the long descending trend channel.
Only in the case that EURO breaks through this limit to the top this analysis would be false.
Trade active:
Trade active:
Trade active:
Attention: the support didn´t stop the fall of the EURO!
next lower level: 1.19$
Attention: the support didn´t stop the fall of the EURO!
next lower level: 1.19$
recovering perhaps on 1.20- level (peaks)