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EURUSD - Expecting Further Drop

Short
FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Right now, the value of the Euro (EUR) compared to the US Dollar (USD) is low (around 1.0740) as per strong Dollar (USD) considering the following factors:

  • The European Central Bank (ECB) will likely keep interest rates the same this Thursday, but might consider lowering them in June.
  • The US Federal Reserve (Fed) might wait longer to lower interest rates because the US economy is doing well and inflation is higher than expected.
  • This difference in interest rates between the ECB and Fed is making the EUR weaker.
  • Unexpectedly high inflation in the US in March caused people to believe the Fed won't lower rates as soon as they thought. This made the USD even stronger.
  • Investors are waiting to see what the ECB decides about interest rates later today and what other economic data comes out of the US.

Overall, our sentiment is still bearish, and we expect some pullback before seeing a further drop in EUR, please see the chart for details.

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