Psychology of OTHER People in the Market Matters More Than Yours
Morning Traders - The next in our series of education posts is going to focus solely on Psychology. specifically regarding the psychology of OTHER people in the market. Once you nail this topic its going to give you a huge edge on the market.
Any trader is always looking whether the next few price swings are going to be bullish or are they going to be bearish? That is the essence of trading - If you know the next few price swings are going to be bullish then it makes it easy to make money right?!
Once you have this identified then you simply just need to time your entry, the safest way to do that would be to be watching for a short term pullback against your bias of where the price swings will be headed. Its important that when looking at these price swings, you watch HOW the price moves, don't need to concern yourself with any chart patterns or candlesticks, but ask yourself as you watch the price move, is the price moving with strength or weakness? If price is pulling back from your bias with weakness then this is an opportunity to place your entries and wait for the price swings you have anticipated. If price pulls bask with strength then it could be time to consider you bias again and stay on the sidelines.
The real key when analysing price action both in the long term price swings you see and in each movement within those price swings is the psychology of everybody else that is trading in that market with you. Much has been written and spoken about regarding making sure you own mindset and psychology is right within trading but I personally feel understanding how other people are feeling within the market is worth so much more. Once you understand how other people are feeling, their emotions etc then its becomes easier you predict their actions.
One of the most powerful emotions we feel that affects our decision making is fear. Im sure everyone can easily anticipate the actions of a fearful person, so we just need to translate that into the chart.
So start watching where are people getting trapped into bad positions? When are they feeling fearful that they made the wrong trade? When are they praying for the market to turn around? These are the traders you want to target because by their nature these are weak traders and likely unprofitable ones, you want to watch for points in the market where these traders know they have got it wrong.. So you should be looking to take the other side of their trades and profit from their mistakes.
The other major aspect of fear you should look for in markets is FOMO. Fear of Missing Out. You see this type of emotion ALL the time in markets, its essentially the market equivalent as when you see people run for the tube / underground as the warning beeps have started and doors are closing... People who have been sat watching the market for a while suddenly see it moving in one direction and start running to enter the trade as quickly as they can... the psychology of this is that they will likely enter with the wrong position size, they haven't analysed the new market conditions that were different from when they were watching the market before, and most importantly their risk management has now gotten out of control. When you see after an already strong price movement that it starts to slow down momentarily and then rockets again in the same original direction - This is typical of FOMO trading. Its wise when you see this to start thinking about places some trades opposite to these traders.
So when people say you should analyse price action - this is the most powerful way to do that. Its not about head and shoulders patterns, its not about doji candles or anything else you hear spoken about... Its simply about human emotions and how they are expressed within the charts.
To be successful you need to start identifying the moments and points in the chart where you know people will buy after you have already brought, or where they will sell after you have already sold.
Any trader is always looking whether the next few price swings are going to be bullish or are they going to be bearish? That is the essence of trading - If you know the next few price swings are going to be bullish then it makes it easy to make money right?!
Once you have this identified then you simply just need to time your entry, the safest way to do that would be to be watching for a short term pullback against your bias of where the price swings will be headed. Its important that when looking at these price swings, you watch HOW the price moves, don't need to concern yourself with any chart patterns or candlesticks, but ask yourself as you watch the price move, is the price moving with strength or weakness? If price is pulling back from your bias with weakness then this is an opportunity to place your entries and wait for the price swings you have anticipated. If price pulls bask with strength then it could be time to consider you bias again and stay on the sidelines.
The real key when analysing price action both in the long term price swings you see and in each movement within those price swings is the psychology of everybody else that is trading in that market with you. Much has been written and spoken about regarding making sure you own mindset and psychology is right within trading but I personally feel understanding how other people are feeling within the market is worth so much more. Once you understand how other people are feeling, their emotions etc then its becomes easier you predict their actions.
One of the most powerful emotions we feel that affects our decision making is fear. Im sure everyone can easily anticipate the actions of a fearful person, so we just need to translate that into the chart.
So start watching where are people getting trapped into bad positions? When are they feeling fearful that they made the wrong trade? When are they praying for the market to turn around? These are the traders you want to target because by their nature these are weak traders and likely unprofitable ones, you want to watch for points in the market where these traders know they have got it wrong.. So you should be looking to take the other side of their trades and profit from their mistakes.
The other major aspect of fear you should look for in markets is FOMO. Fear of Missing Out. You see this type of emotion ALL the time in markets, its essentially the market equivalent as when you see people run for the tube / underground as the warning beeps have started and doors are closing... People who have been sat watching the market for a while suddenly see it moving in one direction and start running to enter the trade as quickly as they can... the psychology of this is that they will likely enter with the wrong position size, they haven't analysed the new market conditions that were different from when they were watching the market before, and most importantly their risk management has now gotten out of control. When you see after an already strong price movement that it starts to slow down momentarily and then rockets again in the same original direction - This is typical of FOMO trading. Its wise when you see this to start thinking about places some trades opposite to these traders.
So when people say you should analyse price action - this is the most powerful way to do that. Its not about head and shoulders patterns, its not about doji candles or anything else you hear spoken about... Its simply about human emotions and how they are expressed within the charts.
To be successful you need to start identifying the moments and points in the chart where you know people will buy after you have already brought, or where they will sell after you have already sold.