Ethereum-Probability of Bottom and next Bull run-2024/25 Eth
This is not a financial advice - this is my personal opinion.
Am looking Ethereum in a bigger picture right from the start in and around 2016.
-> During 2016 to 2017 Eth made a bull flag at BreakOut1 trading in a parallel channel for some time and it Break out again at (BreakOut2) reaching exactly the size of flagPole2.
(The length of flagPole1,2,3 and 4 are of same length).
->BreakOut1+BreakOut2) For more than a decade Eth is Trading in a huge parallel channel without break out or break down from this current channel.
Eth tested 3 times at the top of the channel and tested only once at the bottom of channel at (test) creating Double bottom1 for next bull run.
->Double bottom1) This is the Wyckoff accumulation zone making Double bottom for another round of Bullrun with the same length of FlagPole1 but unfortunately did not breakout from this channel.
->There is a slight Bearish Divergence created in the rsi comparing 2018 bull run to 2021/22. And also, it took out the once 1's and twice 2nd making it over sold.
This is the data we have until now.
Let's Analyze things and make some probabilities based on what we have.
In General Eth should once again retest the bottom of this parallel channel at any point testA or testB or testC, not compulsory though but realistically the upside movement is limited.
Basically the parallel channels break down at some point of time if the strength of rsi is deteriorating. for example like this:
Case1: Double bottom2) Lets think if eth makes the double bottom (at 800 to 900usd + rsi is oversold).
ProbabilityX: Breaks out from the channel with the same length of FlagPole the price target will be roughly 45000usd. (Realistically i don't think this is possible.) "No".
ProbabilityY: If eth stays in the channel and test the top of the channel again than the price target will be roughly 15000usd.( this is 3 times the marketcap of eth at 5k) i still say "No".
Probability3: If it stays inside the channel making higher than 5k- may be 2 times the previous ATH somewhere 10k based on psychological aspect. i say "may be possible".
Probability2: If stays inside the channel making same or higher than 5k- let's think 5k or 6k or 7k. i say "may be possible".
(In the above Probability3, if the rsi is in down trend than eth may break down the parallel channel at testC roughly at 1700usd, since 10k is huge number, it takes some time to break down from the channel).
(In the above Probability4, if the rsi is in down trend than eth may break down the parallel channel at testB roughly at 800usd).
Case2: This is my personal opinion that eth will make double top making another 5k or little higher may be 5500/6000usd or little lower than 5k,
than making the rsi bearish Divergence again (monthly wise), creating lower lows.
Break down the parallel channel at testB and go back to sub 300usd or 200usd level area.
for going back to the lowest levels, it takes long time. Nothing goes straight Down nor straight Up - In any direction price moves in waves (If the asset is not Luna than).
Am looking Ethereum in a bigger picture right from the start in and around 2016.
-> During 2016 to 2017 Eth made a bull flag at BreakOut1 trading in a parallel channel for some time and it Break out again at (BreakOut2) reaching exactly the size of flagPole2.
(The length of flagPole1,2,3 and 4 are of same length).
->BreakOut1+BreakOut2) For more than a decade Eth is Trading in a huge parallel channel without break out or break down from this current channel.
Eth tested 3 times at the top of the channel and tested only once at the bottom of channel at (test) creating Double bottom1 for next bull run.
->Double bottom1) This is the Wyckoff accumulation zone making Double bottom for another round of Bullrun with the same length of FlagPole1 but unfortunately did not breakout from this channel.
->There is a slight Bearish Divergence created in the rsi comparing 2018 bull run to 2021/22. And also, it took out the once 1's and twice 2nd making it over sold.
This is the data we have until now.
Let's Analyze things and make some probabilities based on what we have.
In General Eth should once again retest the bottom of this parallel channel at any point testA or testB or testC, not compulsory though but realistically the upside movement is limited.
Basically the parallel channels break down at some point of time if the strength of rsi is deteriorating. for example like this:
Case1: Double bottom2) Lets think if eth makes the double bottom (at 800 to 900usd + rsi is oversold).
ProbabilityX: Breaks out from the channel with the same length of FlagPole the price target will be roughly 45000usd. (Realistically i don't think this is possible.) "No".
ProbabilityY: If eth stays in the channel and test the top of the channel again than the price target will be roughly 15000usd.( this is 3 times the marketcap of eth at 5k) i still say "No".
Probability3: If it stays inside the channel making higher than 5k- may be 2 times the previous ATH somewhere 10k based on psychological aspect. i say "may be possible".
Probability2: If stays inside the channel making same or higher than 5k- let's think 5k or 6k or 7k. i say "may be possible".
(In the above Probability3, if the rsi is in down trend than eth may break down the parallel channel at testC roughly at 1700usd, since 10k is huge number, it takes some time to break down from the channel).
(In the above Probability4, if the rsi is in down trend than eth may break down the parallel channel at testB roughly at 800usd).
Case2: This is my personal opinion that eth will make double top making another 5k or little higher may be 5500/6000usd or little lower than 5k,
than making the rsi bearish Divergence again (monthly wise), creating lower lows.
Break down the parallel channel at testB and go back to sub 300usd or 200usd level area.
for going back to the lowest levels, it takes long time. Nothing goes straight Down nor straight Up - In any direction price moves in waves (If the asset is not Luna than).
Comment:
Since chart speaks everything, there are high possibilities that by the end of 2025, the performance of Ethereum may go down drastically, may be a new Layer1 takes its place.
