Trends, Triangles, and a Pending Price Battle

Trends had some minor changes from the overnight movement. I explained that there is an upcoming Bull / Bear Battleground taking shape. Price is coming under pressure and ultimately something is going to give. I still give a 60/40 bearish sentiment, but again, I trade off of the mathematical equation of trends, and NOT off my opinion.

Today I go over the trends and then I explain Right Angle Triangles and show to two major converging triangles (or perhaps one of them is a false triangle and doesn't exist?!?!) or, on a more fundamental level, the psychological aspect of human behavior in the market place and two price directions meeting together.

In reviewing my own video, just to put some clarification... usually I feel the price has to move into an Apex. If the downsloping triangle wins this price action, I see the price movement going to at least the previous lows, although that could stay the base of that triangle and it doesn't HAVE to go even lower. It is possible that upsloping triangle is a false triangle and is just being spotted because it is part of the downsloping triangle. This is why I always caution on using anything to predict the market, you never get to fully know what was real, and what wasn't, until after the fact.

Hope you enjoy! Remember your Risk Management Plan is the most important part of your trading strategy. If you've been finding my assessments helpful, it would be great to hear some feedback in any way. I enjoy doing these because it makes me really pay attention early in the day so I don't get sloppy in my analysis as I go into my trading day.

As always, this is not official financial or investment advice, and all liability is on you for your investment decisions.

Comment:

FYI, funny enough, after talking about the 30m trend basically running it's course... the 30m is now a downtrend at 3815.

Comment:

The 1-Hour trend is also now a Downtrend hitting at 3805, which has thus far shown itself as a reversal.
That 30m has not shown as a reversal. I would watch and see if this 30m trend develops into a healthy downtrend.

Trade active:

I entered into a Short Position at 3814. Going to give this 30m a try. If it fizzles at the 1-Hour mark, I'll be taking profit. Otherwise I'd like to see it keep moving downward, potentially breaking this uptrend bar we discussed. I'll likely take profit then if it hits 3770 and evaluate if I want to continue unless it just BLOWS past it.
Again, my risk management plan, I retain a 1-5 ratio of profit taking. So at $250 profit, I'll set myself to $25, at $500, if I want to continue I'll take profit at $100, and so on and so on.

Comment:

My trade clearly passed the 1-Hour Downtrend point of 3805. The movement off the high has been strong enough it is actually already flipping the 2-Hour Uptrend into a Downtrend. That can't be confirmed until it stays into that downtrend signal past 9am when this current bar closes. Will reevaluate again then on staying in or taking profit.

Trade closed manually:

So I chose to take profit of $1500 at 3784. I may decide to reengage with the market at 09:00 EST, but I didn't want to lose a nice start to the week, especially when we are so confused on direction and heading into this triangle apex. I'll update if the 2 Hour Trend signal holds at 9am and what it is at.

Comment:

2-Hour Downtrend set - 3775
Look to see if it will reverse. If it doesn't, price is likely to break that uptrend (or ascending) triangle line.

Trade active:

I entered a long at 3775... Going to treat the 2-Hour as a reversal. 30m trend may at least cool off before it continues, and it is close to the failed 6-Hour downtrend line of 3770ish.

Trade closed: stop reached:

Got stopped out. I had my loss set to a $50 profit stoploss at 3776 once we hit 3780, and was stopped out. This could be the pressure move I'd spoken of before.

Comment:

Thinking back, probably should have been ready to continue on the downtrend. Tried to reverse it at 3775, got stopped at 3776 for $50, and SHOULD have then shorted at 3775, with a stop at 3780 and then moved it to the 5/1 ratio as it descended.

Having missed that entry, I may take a nice break and go workout. To comment on the movement though, as I said above, if it moves through that uptrend line (or ascending triangle) that everyone had been counting on without any real increase in volume (there hasn't been yet), then that uptrend was basically never a real uptrend or triangle at all.

I'll probably come back in and check on the market around 12pm or so. Very possible I may take my $1500 (and the lunch money I got from attempting the reversal) and call it a day. Nice way to start out a short week.

Comment:

3-Hour Downtrend level is 3753. So far no follow through, but it has until 13:00 EST.

Could end up bouncing between that level if it fails to follow through and 3775 where the 2-Hour Downtrend has set as a level. Not sure I'll make any more trades today, have to decide around 1pm after I see how this 3-Hour Downtrend is settling.

I've said before, ALL trends heading the same way tend to be unsustainable. Everything has downtrend signals except that 12-Hour Uptrend from 3926. I'm assuming we will get a down signal for the 12h at some point, but currently we can't use it as any sort of help in knowing how far down we go.

This really is the issue when everything trends the same way, is there is not real indication on when the current trends will reverse.

Trade active:

I have entered into a long at 3749. Perhaps a bit early on the decision, but I'm going to look at the 3-Hour Downtrend signal at 3753 as a reversal at this point. May take either a small profit or loss at 13:00 if we haven't moved much from where we are.

Trade closed: target reached:

Took profit at 3771 (bout $1000)
Entered into a reverse position (Short) at 3771

Trade closed: stop reached:

Was stopped out of that at 3770 (lunch money). Ok... now I'm really going to wait until 13:00 to decide to enter any more trades.

Trade active:

Ok, I lied... I entered one more at the 3776 level. That's the 2 Hour Downtrend. My target is to see if the 3-Hour can at least return close to it's signal point by 13:00. I'll either take profit at that 3753 level OR just close out at 13:00 if it hasn't hit by then.

Trade closed: stop reached:

Stopped out at 3775 (Lunch Money). Definitely going into too many trades today. So I am going to walk away for the day. It's been a good day, no reason to mess it up and sit here consistently making lunch money, other than to be able to buy lunch for the week haha.

Trade active:

Entered one last attempt at 3779 short. I'm going to look at this day ending around the 3-Hour signal mark, without any clear indication if that signal wants to continue or not. If this 2 hour candle ends above 3776, regardless of stopping me or not, I'll close out. The 3-Hour candle is also closing this hour mark in 10 minutes. The next 3-Hour candle ends at market close (16:00 EST). If it closes below 3753, I'll stay in overnight. If it does not close below 3753, I'll take profit and end, to reevaluate tomorrow.

Trade closed: stop reached:

Exited at 3777 for dinner money. Still suspect that it's going to end around 3753 but I don't feel like micromanaging things at this point. Will review things at 16:00 and take the rest of the day off.

Trade active:

Entered a short at 3795. The 15m Uptrend signal is hitting (though the bar isn't complete yet), I'm going to use it as a reversal entry point to continue the 30m downtrend.

Trade closed: stop reached:

Came back to find that trade got stopped out at 3793. Felt fairly certain we would find our way back near the 3-Hour downtrend signal but not closing past it but doesn't appear that way at this point.

Most likely algo traders seeing the MFI oversold. It has been a slow, very low volume, grueling upward movement. Likely to at least pull down eventually, but at this point I've done more trades today than I like (I like to do no more than 3 or 4). So I'm going to just let it go, and accept that if it drops back down, I won't be involved in it.

Trade active:

Went short at the revisiting of the 30m downtrend at 3815. Just to logical of a movement to pass over.

Trade closed manually:

Disregard. Got out at a zero. The 30m flagged to an Uptrend when it closed at 3805 at 14:30 EST.

1-Hour Downtrend is currently beginning to change signal to an uptrend also. Officially no trends to follow, means I'm not trading.