Enphase Energy – Is it Overpriced Enough to Start Shorting it?

Fundamental Indicators:

• Sector – Technology
  
• US Business Cycle Stage – late cycle, when this sector is not favourable
  
• Revenue – explosive growth for the past 5 years, 40% 5-year average
  
• Profits – consistently growing since 2020
  
• Net margin – decent 11% for tech company
  
• P/E – extremely high at 195 compared to S&P500 with 21 and Technology sector 27
  
• Liabilities - debt ratio is at 0.81 which is within normal limits, Net Debt/ EBITDA is at 0.13 – no problems with debt
  
• Conclusion – great financial performance since it became profitable in 2019 but it is grossly overpriced considering the current global economic situation, so it is very likely to go into correction to let the steam out
  

Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves):

• Main scenario of this idea suggests that we are still observing development of the global growth cycle which is currently at the stage of completing wave 3 (see higher timeframe graph)
  
• Since the correction of March 2020, the stock price went ballistic with nearly 1400% jump, which makes sense as solar energy technology is in great demand now considering the current geo-political situation
  
• However, EW count suggests that the latest global correction in the form of Running Flat lasted between February 2021 and January 2022 and since then there was another move to the upside in a choppy manner which is likely to be an Ending Diagonal currently in final stages of completion
  
• Once reversal started we can expect correction to a target area of $110-$150 representing 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels to the global wave 3
  

This is a higher timeframe to reflect the full history of Enphase Energy and to provide full wave count:

What do you think about Enphase Energy and its short term prospects?
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