EEM 62% PoP for quick 18% profit spread

Quick option spread play for the next 2 weeks:
* 1 year trendline still holding
* bullish trend


Max profit: $154
Probability of Profit: 62%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 18%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$150


Req. Buy Power: $846 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 12
Expiry: 13 days


Sell 2 EEM May21' 55 Put
Buy 2 EEM May21' 50 Put


Credit Put spread for 0.77cr each, because IVR is average


Stop/my risk management: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 150$. Probability of loss in this way: ~20% .

Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.27db. Probability of profit this way: ~80%.

Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!



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Trade closed manually:

Worst timing ever. S&P falling, uptrend interrupted. Minimalize loss.