Risk strikes when least expected. Optimism peaks before a downturn strikes. Chart below shows remarkable spike in articles mentioning soft-landing before recession hits. Human brain is engineered to think linearly. Anything non-linear tricks the mind. Recession is non-linear which muddles up investor estimates of recession, its timing and impact. Count of...
I`m targeting a Double Bottom this year! Looking at the AN AutoNation options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $95 strike price Puts with 2023-7-21 expiration date for about $2.50 premium. If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
If you’re new to my TV feed, I have been following 3 JPM hedged equity funds put spread collars (seagull) for 2 years now. Some points to be aware of before using any of this info: Theories are highly speculative dealer flows. All the information is public. Hedges are SPX quarterly expiry options. Core concepts originate from Cem Karsan on fin twit. ...
Entering a put spread 685 - 675 for 20Jan23 based on: - lateral channel resistance tested twice and held a couple of weeks ago at 735 - RSI divergence from mid-Nov to mid-Dec - descending triangle in the past 2 weeks
For all you weekend script warriors out there. I'm working on a new script to track the greeks for put spread collars like JHEQX My thought is to publish a script that can automate tracking of these massive collars and generate greeks, strikes and future volatility predictions. I want to create trading strategies based on selling while negative gamma and...
The collar resets the last business day of Feb, May, Aug, and Nov. This is the smallest of the 3 funds JPMorgan manages with a collar. At 3 billion in assets, the impacts on markets are still relevant. The options for the 3rd fund are not as well known, but using the reset date and the fact they use SPX options I’m able to make a guess at the relevant sizes and...
Wanted to get this posted for anyone who's got active trades open... particularly long positions. $PCC above 1 is generally bearish, below 1 is generally bullish.... basically showing volume of Puts & Calls traded. With Put trading spiking like this, extreme caution should be taken with tight stops.
This price forecast is purely based on technical analysis of the current setup. I guess people are drinking a lot? We've had an extremely long stretch of green - which is a stale green light - 11 days in a row of green & 6 weeks straight of green - that hasn't happened since 2017 - it looks like the stock is trying to breakout on the weekly chart, but it looks...
I like the idea of the 145/140P credit spread here. $1.45 credit for the 11/19 opex 30-45 days or more until expiration would capture the most premium vs. theta decay (sweet spot per Tasty Trades). You could go long naked : ) higher risk idea . I don't have conviction on how high and quickly Nike will rebound so I like the spread trade idea here
Affirm Holdings $AFRM was up 34% on better than expected earnings and guidance.. the AFRM options market is lively with a steep volatility smile.. depending on your view there’s a number of plays here.. ATM straddle as IV’s there are well below historical volatility.. or bullish call or put spread to sell some rich OTM calls or puts.. after big earnings surprises...
After a beartrap switched back to bullish view with large ETF-s. First of all: SPY Max profit: $204 Probability for 50% of Profit: %90 Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 20% Req. Buy Power: $996 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Expiry: 22 days Buy 3 SPY Jul16' 420 Put Sell 3 SPY Jul16' 416 Put Credit...
TA at 1HR TF (because this stock is new, no daily history) Quick Coinbase play at high IVR, reasons: - trend changed: higher high , lower lows - divergence at bottom - my strike is last bottom as support- $260 - I have very plenty safety zone - Buying power arrieved as volume Max profit: $220 Probability of Profit: 72% Profit Target relative to my Buying...
Quick option spread play for the next 2 weeks: * 1 year trendline still holding * bullish trend Max profit: $154 Probability of Profit: 62% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 18% Max loss with my risk management: ~$150 Req. Buy Power: $846 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 12 Expiry: 13 days Sell 2...
Smooth RSI is extreme oversold, and the IVR is ultra high. Obvious bounceback play. Max profit: $240 Probability of Profit: 57% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 47% Max loss with my risk management: ~$200 Req. Buy Power: $510 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 88 (ultra high) Expiry: 35 days Buy 3...
This is a high level breakdown of a complex options strategy featured on financial television this last Wednesday. When I first saw the strategy I was intrigued and decided to put it through analysis tools to understand it for myself. I wanted to share this so that others can learn.
Decent earnings, still above 70 RSI, watch for a slight dip on monday but as long as it holds $550 support, I think it should continue to trade in this range and up. 2/19/21, 460/450 put spread @2.70 hoping to swing for a few weeks. Looking for a $1.60 exit.
16/14 put credit on BANC for 2/19/21 looking for .35. Swing for a couple weeks off good earnings. Watch movement Monday and breaking 16.50 support.
Clorox NYSE:CLX has really been selling off this month. The stock has dipped below its 100 day exponential moving average more than twice recently. I am going to see if CLX break below the 200 EMA. If so, then the key levels to watch might be that bearish turning point line, which was drawn using previous support levels. Seeing this chart makes me wonder...Is...