SOYBEAN upward move play with Teucrium Soybean $SOYB trust fund

(1) Futures Technical Analysis

Bullish triangle with RSI breakout.
Enought space for bullish move.

s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/z/ZrOOwoOm.png

(2) SOYB trust fund

I've skipped the futures instrument, because I'm not like options on futures.
My choice for Soybean play is $SOYB with relative high IVR value.
Optimal for Short Put Vertical strategy, similar TA here, with RSI pullback.

s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/d/dQ0kzF3M.png

(3) Clear uptrend

Higher Lows Higher Highs.

s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/i/i2sGUgwk.png

CONCLUSION:

Max profit: $685
Probability of Profit: 55%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 47%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$200


Req. Buy Power: $1320 (max loss without management at expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 66 (ultra high)
Expiry: 35 days


Buy 10 SOYB May21' 20 Put
Sell 10 SOYB May21' 22 Put

Credit Put spread for 0.685cr each, because IVR is relative high.


Stop/my risk management: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 200$. Probability of loss in this way: ~25% . No stress above $21.1 level.

Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.27db. Probability of profit this way: ~75%.

Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!


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Trade closed: target reached:

My best ans fastest trade in this year.
Closed in auto profit.