Fed Lockhart was cautious on the margin stating one rate hike in 2016 only "could" be appropriate rather than should which echoed the sentiment of the earlier Fed Dudley speech which was alot more hawkish imo. This has helped the USD back off its Dudley induced gain, and refocus on the CPI miss as Lockhart reminded the market that " Some Signs Election Uncertainty Slowing Economy" and " 'Not Locked In' To Any Particular Monetary Policy Outlook Right Now" given the data uncertainty which continue to be the two biggest factors for the USD and future hikes going forward. Fed funds currently imply an p18% sept hike, up from 9% yesterday though - where i expect this to come down still into days end as CPI miss is priced and Fed Dudleys sentiment is faded with th ereal hard data left in traders minds (bearish).
This in mind I continue to be bullish AUD with a 0.78 target (apprx 100pips).
Fed Lockhart speech highlights:
Fed's Lockhart: One More Rate Rise In 2016 'Could Be Appropriate'
Lockhart: 'Not Locked In' To Any Particular Monetary Policy Outlook Right Now
Lockhart: Optimistic About Outlook, Views 2Q Gdp With Caution
Lockhart: Economy's Underlying Fundamentals Remain Healthy
Lockhart: Indications 3Q Growth Fixing For A Rebound
Lockhart: Doesn't Believe Economic Momentum Has Stalled
Lockhart: 2% Growth Environment Now Looks More Likely
Lockhart: Uncertainty An Issue For The Economy
Lockhart: Economy Closing In On Full Employment, Wage Gains Rising
Lockhart: Will Achieve 2% Price Target By End Of 2017
Fed's Lockhart: Some Signs Election Uncertainty Slowing Economy
Lockhart: Auto Sales Have Been Going 'Gangbusters'
Lockhart: Even at Full Employment, Economy Still Has Labor to Draw On
This in mind I continue to be bullish AUD with a 0.78 target (apprx 100pips).
Fed Lockhart speech highlights:
Fed's Lockhart: One More Rate Rise In 2016 'Could Be Appropriate'
Lockhart: 'Not Locked In' To Any Particular Monetary Policy Outlook Right Now
Lockhart: Optimistic About Outlook, Views 2Q Gdp With Caution
Lockhart: Economy's Underlying Fundamentals Remain Healthy
Lockhart: Indications 3Q Growth Fixing For A Rebound
Lockhart: Doesn't Believe Economic Momentum Has Stalled
Lockhart: 2% Growth Environment Now Looks More Likely
Lockhart: Uncertainty An Issue For The Economy
Lockhart: Economy Closing In On Full Employment, Wage Gains Rising
Lockhart: Will Achieve 2% Price Target By End Of 2017
Fed's Lockhart: Some Signs Election Uncertainty Slowing Economy
Lockhart: Auto Sales Have Been Going 'Gangbusters'
Lockhart: Even at Full Employment, Economy Still Has Labor to Draw On
Lockhart: Won't Rule Out September For Rate Rise
Lockhart: Expects 'Serious' Debate About Rate Rise In September
Lockhart: Still Possible To Have Two Rate Rises This Year
Lockhart: If Fed Met Today Would Have Strong Debate Over Rate Rise
Lockhart: Possible Two Or More Rate Rises In 2017
Lockhart: Welcomes Reexamination Of Fed Policy Orthodoxy
Lockhart: Respectfully Disagrees With Fed's Bullard New Outlook
Lockhart: Job Gains Over 150,000 A Month Are Good
Lockhart: Seeing Mounting Evidence Of Wage Gains