Idea: Coinbase = Facebook
The first 6 months after Coinbase’s DPO reminds me of Facebook’s first 14 months after its 2012 IPO.
The exponential increase over the last decade in the velocity of money and how it is exchanged in the markets seems to be a reason why a stock like Coinbase can do movements that previously took 14 months in just about 6 months. That’s 58% faster if we go along with exploring this idea.
As of today, Coinbase’s chart looks like it has been emulating Facebook’s. If we take a look into Facebook’s all time chart we’ll come across some interesting technical “coincidences” when extrapolating the 3.618 Fib extensions.
If we take the Fibonacci of the all time high of $44.62 and the all time low of $17.43 during the first 6 months of Facebook’s life we get a 3.618 extension of $118.33 that came into existence 4 years later. If we take that all time high of $118.33 and the all time low of $17.43 and we extrapolate and do another Fib extension, the 3.618 lands at $378.76; exactly where the bull run ended (as of today) for Facebook in September of this year. It took 5 years to get to that point from the previous 3.618 extension, but the path had already been drawn.
If we extrapolate Coinbase’s potential 3.618 future extensions, we get $1,022 and $3,138.
As of 2021, Coinbase sits at a market cap of $68.5 billion. In the banking industry, JPMorgan Chase sits at the #1 spot with $503.5 billion. If Coinbase gets to $3,138 (basically a 10x) that would mean that it would surpass JPMorgan and achieve a future market cap of $671 billion.
If Coinbase does a memeish move similar to what Tesla did recently, where it basically took over the entire car industry’s market cap, who knows where it could go. I don’t think this will happen this year or anytime soon, but if it took Facebook 9 years to get close to a $1 trillion market cap, and we take into consideration the exponential change in the velocity of money, it wouldn’t be that inconceivable to think that Coinbase can reach that valuation 58% faster, or in other words, 4 years (or let’s say 5).
What’s the likelihood of this scenario happening? Who knows really, but I think that it’s more probable than not.
We can take the following into consideration:
Coinbase hasn’t even started offering traditional stocks through its exchange. What will happen when/if retail gets the opportunity to trade stocks like Google and Apple through mirror synthetic tokens of their stocks? What will happen when/if Coinbase provides ROTH/IRA/Retirement products through their platform? What will happen when/if Coinbase integrates a social media platform? What if the future of the said Metaverse is not within Facebook but within Coinbase? What if businesses start generating more revenue through Coinbase sales funnels?
Just food for thought. Thanks for reading if you got all the way here.
*I’ve been diversifying my crypto profits into Coinbase stock since late April, from the $320s all the way down to the $210s. After June, every time it went over $260 I paused accumulating. Up till now, I’ve managed to average a $242 entry price. As of the moment, I’m in a hold position, and currently not buying. Wall Street has set a short term high sell target between $385-$600 and a low buy target between $160-$220. Only time will tell.
The first 6 months after Coinbase’s DPO reminds me of Facebook’s first 14 months after its 2012 IPO.
The exponential increase over the last decade in the velocity of money and how it is exchanged in the markets seems to be a reason why a stock like Coinbase can do movements that previously took 14 months in just about 6 months. That’s 58% faster if we go along with exploring this idea.
As of today, Coinbase’s chart looks like it has been emulating Facebook’s. If we take a look into Facebook’s all time chart we’ll come across some interesting technical “coincidences” when extrapolating the 3.618 Fib extensions.
If we take the Fibonacci of the all time high of $44.62 and the all time low of $17.43 during the first 6 months of Facebook’s life we get a 3.618 extension of $118.33 that came into existence 4 years later. If we take that all time high of $118.33 and the all time low of $17.43 and we extrapolate and do another Fib extension, the 3.618 lands at $378.76; exactly where the bull run ended (as of today) for Facebook in September of this year. It took 5 years to get to that point from the previous 3.618 extension, but the path had already been drawn.
If we extrapolate Coinbase’s potential 3.618 future extensions, we get $1,022 and $3,138.
As of 2021, Coinbase sits at a market cap of $68.5 billion. In the banking industry, JPMorgan Chase sits at the #1 spot with $503.5 billion. If Coinbase gets to $3,138 (basically a 10x) that would mean that it would surpass JPMorgan and achieve a future market cap of $671 billion.
If Coinbase does a memeish move similar to what Tesla did recently, where it basically took over the entire car industry’s market cap, who knows where it could go. I don’t think this will happen this year or anytime soon, but if it took Facebook 9 years to get close to a $1 trillion market cap, and we take into consideration the exponential change in the velocity of money, it wouldn’t be that inconceivable to think that Coinbase can reach that valuation 58% faster, or in other words, 4 years (or let’s say 5).
What’s the likelihood of this scenario happening? Who knows really, but I think that it’s more probable than not.
We can take the following into consideration:
Coinbase hasn’t even started offering traditional stocks through its exchange. What will happen when/if retail gets the opportunity to trade stocks like Google and Apple through mirror synthetic tokens of their stocks? What will happen when/if Coinbase provides ROTH/IRA/Retirement products through their platform? What will happen when/if Coinbase integrates a social media platform? What if the future of the said Metaverse is not within Facebook but within Coinbase? What if businesses start generating more revenue through Coinbase sales funnels?
Just food for thought. Thanks for reading if you got all the way here.
*I’ve been diversifying my crypto profits into Coinbase stock since late April, from the $320s all the way down to the $210s. After June, every time it went over $260 I paused accumulating. Up till now, I’ve managed to average a $242 entry price. As of the moment, I’m in a hold position, and currently not buying. Wall Street has set a short term high sell target between $385-$600 and a low buy target between $160-$220. Only time will tell.