Hello everyone, rouzwelt here
Well we are seeing some interesting moves from bitcoin recently, as price managed to shoot straight up through 35k resistance level to 39k without any reaction from bears. If you have been following me you know that I've been pretty vocal about the general weakness in chart and the lack of demand and that these reasons may cause bitcoin to crash even more and bring all the crypto market down with it. But at the end of the day I can't predict the future, I'm just focusing on the probabilities and position myself on the most probable direction. But the more probable direction doesn't always play out and you get one of these F*** YOU candles every once in a while in crypto space as it is not yet matured enough like other markets and these high volatility events mostly happen when the liquidity is low, just like the current moment.
Price has done some good bullish actions in last few days, but the point is that nothing has changed much since this pump initiated, technically and fundamentally. As you can see we are still in the 30-40k range, and we are also below the main blue down-trend line formed from our macro highs. As you can see in the screenshot below of my last post on bitcoin daily timeframe (Link: www.tradingview.com/...on-If-All-Goes-Well/), price has recovered some of lost levels quite like my projection, and I also have been talking in that post about the importance of the 42K and blue macro trend line, which are the 2 most critical levels for btc to break if we want to see higher levels again, and right now if price manages to head high in the coming week or so, it can actually test those 2 levels at the same time and break above them, but until that the macro trend is still toward the downside and even if price breaks those 2 levels, it still has a great chance of rejection, as we need to see a macro higher high getting printed above our last macro high, but there are great trade opportunities on the way, so bulls still have a lot of work ahead of them if they want turn things around.
I also pointed out there that the triangle formation gets invalidated if price manages to break and find some support above it, so then the rectangle formation becomes the main chart-pattern formation which traders will pay attention to. I also talked about the possible sideways movement until price reaches to the macro blue trend-line which would be the most bullish scenario for btc in my opinion. So I still believe in what I said in that post until it gets invalidated.
Last night I updated my last post and said that I'd be looking for a short trade entry point when price reaches to the 35-36.5k area, but it's good that I didn't find any as price has cut through that area, but I still think that there a good possibility that we see a decent pullback after this pump, and if that pullback manages to hold above the triangle then it will be good entry point for a long position, but at current moment I don't see any entry point for a long position as price has risen so much and entering here brings a great risk with it.
We still need to stay cautious as this pump has come mostly as a result of low liquidity which you can clearly see in the bars' volume, so the chance of it being a fake-out to cause the maximum pain is not low.
At last I'd like to mention again that at these market situations, risk management becomes even more important and shows its real value, as this whole range's price action was and is haunting many people's Stop-Losses as I had said in my last month post (article link below the post). I have taken some trades in this range and most of them stopped-out at break even after securing some profits before it turns around and I had the ability not to lose any and gain some with good risk management. So I suggest you to practice risk management excessively at this stage.
I'll be posting about my next trade setup idea soon as I'm looking to enter aggressively when I see a good entry point, no matter which direction bitcoin goes, so stay tuned. And if you find this post helpful then consider supporting me by hitting like and comment if you have any opinion about it, I'd would love to hear your opinions. Have fun and trade safe.
Well we are seeing some interesting moves from bitcoin recently, as price managed to shoot straight up through 35k resistance level to 39k without any reaction from bears. If you have been following me you know that I've been pretty vocal about the general weakness in chart and the lack of demand and that these reasons may cause bitcoin to crash even more and bring all the crypto market down with it. But at the end of the day I can't predict the future, I'm just focusing on the probabilities and position myself on the most probable direction. But the more probable direction doesn't always play out and you get one of these F*** YOU candles every once in a while in crypto space as it is not yet matured enough like other markets and these high volatility events mostly happen when the liquidity is low, just like the current moment.
Price has done some good bullish actions in last few days, but the point is that nothing has changed much since this pump initiated, technically and fundamentally. As you can see we are still in the 30-40k range, and we are also below the main blue down-trend line formed from our macro highs. As you can see in the screenshot below of my last post on bitcoin daily timeframe (Link: www.tradingview.com/...on-If-All-Goes-Well/), price has recovered some of lost levels quite like my projection, and I also have been talking in that post about the importance of the 42K and blue macro trend line, which are the 2 most critical levels for btc to break if we want to see higher levels again, and right now if price manages to head high in the coming week or so, it can actually test those 2 levels at the same time and break above them, but until that the macro trend is still toward the downside and even if price breaks those 2 levels, it still has a great chance of rejection, as we need to see a macro higher high getting printed above our last macro high, but there are great trade opportunities on the way, so bulls still have a lot of work ahead of them if they want turn things around.
I also pointed out there that the triangle formation gets invalidated if price manages to break and find some support above it, so then the rectangle formation becomes the main chart-pattern formation which traders will pay attention to. I also talked about the possible sideways movement until price reaches to the macro blue trend-line which would be the most bullish scenario for btc in my opinion. So I still believe in what I said in that post until it gets invalidated.
Last night I updated my last post and said that I'd be looking for a short trade entry point when price reaches to the 35-36.5k area, but it's good that I didn't find any as price has cut through that area, but I still think that there a good possibility that we see a decent pullback after this pump, and if that pullback manages to hold above the triangle then it will be good entry point for a long position, but at current moment I don't see any entry point for a long position as price has risen so much and entering here brings a great risk with it.
We still need to stay cautious as this pump has come mostly as a result of low liquidity which you can clearly see in the bars' volume, so the chance of it being a fake-out to cause the maximum pain is not low.
At last I'd like to mention again that at these market situations, risk management becomes even more important and shows its real value, as this whole range's price action was and is haunting many people's Stop-Losses as I had said in my last month post (article link below the post). I have taken some trades in this range and most of them stopped-out at break even after securing some profits before it turns around and I had the ability not to lose any and gain some with good risk management. So I suggest you to practice risk management excessively at this stage.
I'll be posting about my next trade setup idea soon as I'm looking to enter aggressively when I see a good entry point, no matter which direction bitcoin goes, so stay tuned. And if you find this post helpful then consider supporting me by hitting like and comment if you have any opinion about it, I'd would love to hear your opinions. Have fun and trade safe.
